|
Having trouble viewing this email?
|
Weekly Energy Update · Week 45
Fuel & Energy Report
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published Monday, November 2, 2026 • Week in Review: October 26–November 1 • Forecast: November 2–8
|
|
♦ CA DIESEL $8.356 (▼10¢ WK · 15.6¢ UNDER RECORD) ♦ CA REGULAR $5.906 (▼12¢ WK) ♦ WTI $104.12 FRIDAY, UP 15% IN OCTOBER ♦ BRENT $113.43 (JAN) ♦ LA DIESEL $5.054 OCT 27, ▼31¢ IN A WEEK ♦ US DISTILLATE 102.8M BBL, 10% UNDER 5-YR ♦ EU TO RELEASE 42.6M BBL
|
|
|
|
📈 This Week’s Call
Diesel fell 9.9 cents and wholesale gave back its whole jump. We called it higher and missed again, so we are moving to flat to lower.
Last Monday we called California diesel modestly higher at $8.42 to $8.62 and put the odds of a new record near 40%. That call missed for the second week running. AAA’s Sunday read puts diesel at $8.3562, down 9.9 cents on the week, 6.4 cents below the bottom of our range and 15.6 cents under the $8.5123 record of October 18. We had the direction wrong again. EIA’s survey for the week of October 26 printed $8.155, down 8.7 cents and inside our $8.14 to $8.26 range, against a national average of $6.352, up 7.6 cents. Gasoline went the way we said. Regular finished at $5.9055, down 11.8 cents and inside our $5.88 to $6.02 range; EIA regular printed $5.888, inside our $5.80 to $5.93. Wholesale reversed. The Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur diesel spot, which our lean-higher call rested on, ran $5.390 on October 22, $5.299 on October 23, $5.190 on October 26 and $5.054 on October 27, down 31 cents from the October 20 print. Crude held up. WTI settled Friday at $104.12, up about 1% on the week and 15.2% in October, inside our $96 to $112 range, and Brent’s January contract at $113.43 (the December contract expired at $117.64). Our read: the gap we leaned on closed from the wholesale side, not the pump side. Los Angeles diesel is now within 4.3 cents of where it stood the week ending October 9, and the statewide pump has come down to meet it. Europe’s 42.6 million barrel reserve release is a cushion, and crude near $104 to $113 with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia still running is the risk. We call diesel flat to slightly lower, and gasoline lower.
|
|
| ⛽ |
Section 1
Last Week at the Pump
|
|
AAA’s Sunday, November 1 read puts California diesel at $8.3562, down 9.9 cents on the week and 15.6 cents under the October 18 record of $8.5123. Regular finished at $5.9055, down 11.8 cents. Diesel is down about 2.7 cents in a month and up $3.22 in a year; gasoline is down 49.6 cents in a month and up $1.26 in a year. EIA’s survey for the week of Monday, October 26 put California on-highway diesel at $8.155, down 8.7 cents, against a national average of $6.352, up 7.6 cents; EIA regular was $5.888, down 14.3 cents. EIA samples Monday and AAA reports Sunday, so the two will not always agree on size in a given week. Here is the number that matters: all nine Valley metros slipped, and the national average rose while California fell. The statewide price is still within 16 cents of its record, but wholesale is no longer pulling it up.
| CA Diesel |
| $8.356 |
| statewide · AAA 11/1 |
| ▼ 10¢ wk · 15.6¢ under record. |
| LA Wholesale |
| $5.054 |
| diesel spot · Tue 10/27 |
| ▼ 31¢ since the 10/20 print. |
| Brent Crude |
| $113.43 |
| Jan settle · Fri 10/30 |
| Dec expired $117.64 · WTI $104.12. |
| Distillate |
| 102.8M bbl |
| US stocks · wk 10/23 |
| ▼ 1.5M · vs 0.9M draw expected. |
Central Valley & Reference Markets, On-Highway Diesel
| Market |
Diesel |
Wk |
Note, and where regular sits |
| Merced |
$8.260 |
▼ 6¢ |
Down 5.8 cents. 9.6¢ under the state average. Regular $5.869. AAA, November 1. |
| Bakersfield |
$8.284 |
▼ 2¢ |
Down 1.6 cents, the smallest drop on this table. 7.3¢ under the state average. Regular $6.072, the priciest in the Valley. AAA, November 1. |
| Stockton–Lodi |
$8.215 |
▼ 10¢ |
Cheapest diesel in the Valley, down 10.4 cents. North Valley hauling reference, where the walnut loads run. 14.2¢ under the state average. Regular $5.718. AAA, November 1. |
| Sacramento |
$8.331 |
▼ 9¢ |
Down 9.5 cents. 2.5¢ under the state average. Regular $5.852. AAA, November 1. |
| Modesto |
$8.376 |
▼ 11¢ |
Down 10.8 cents, the biggest drop on this table. 2.0¢ over the state average. Regular $5.709, the cheapest gasoline in the Valley. AAA, November 1. |
| Hanford–Corcoran |
$8.300 |
▼ 9¢ |
Down 8.8 cents. 5.7¢ under the state average. Regular $5.815. AAA, November 1. |
| Visalia–Tulare |
$8.305 |
▼ 6¢ |
Down 5.8 cents. 5.2¢ under the state average. Regular $5.818. AAA, November 1. |
| Madera–Chowchilla |
$8.434 |
▼ 2¢ |
Down 1.9 cents and still dear. 7.8¢ over the state average. Regular $5.817. AAA, November 1. |
| Fresno |
$8.457 |
▼ 8¢ |
Still the dearest diesel in the Valley, but 8.5 cents off its October 18 metro record of $8.5421. 10.1¢ over the state average. Regular $5.837. AAA, November 1. |
| California avg. |
$8.356 |
▼ 10¢ |
AAA, November 1, down 9.9¢ on the week and 15.6¢ under the $8.5123 record set October 18. Down about 2.7¢ in a month and up $3.22 in a year. EIA’s week-of-10/26 survey printed $8.155, down 8.7¢. Regular $5.906, down 11.8¢ on the week and 49.6¢ in a month, up $1.26 in a year. |
| West Coast (PADD 5) |
$7.329 |
▼ 7¢ |
EIA, week of 10/26, down 6.5¢. Includes California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona and others. The West Coast excluding California is $6.614, down 4.5¢, so California sits $1.54 above the rest of the region and 82.6¢ above the region as a whole. |
| U.S. avg. |
$6.352 |
▲ 8¢ |
EIA, week of 10/26, the DOE figure your hauler’s surcharge runs off. It rose 7.6¢ while California fell 8.7¢, so the California diesel premium narrowed to $1.80 from $1.97. National regular $4.269. |
Diesel detail: Off-road dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, roughly a 72.6¢ per gallon spread before sales tax. At Fresno’s $8.457 pump that puts dyed product near $7.73 a gallon, about $7,731 to fill a 1,000-gallon on-farm tank, roughly $76 less than last week. Price your rack and cardlock against these numbers, not the sign on the highway. Here is the test for your delivered price: last week Los Angeles diesel spot was up 35.4 cents in two weeks while the statewide pump was up only 6.4. That gap closed from the wholesale side. Los Angeles printed $5.054 on October 27, within 4.3 cents of the $5.011 average for the week ending October 9, and the statewide pump fell 9.9 cents this week. If your delivered price did not come down this week, ask your supplier where the difference went.
For your surcharge tables. The DOE national on-highway diesel average of $6.352 for the week of October 26 governs fuel surcharges this week. It rose 7.6 cents while California fell 8.7, so a surcharge indexed to the national number charged you more this week for a cost that went down. The fix has not changed: index to the EIA California series or a West Coast rack, get it in writing, and stop letting a Gulf Coast number price a Central Valley load.
|
|
| 🔮 |
Section 2
The Week Ahead: Our Forecast
|
|
For the week of November 2 through 8. WTI settled Friday at $104.12, up about 1% on the week and 15.2% on the month, and Brent’s January contract at $113.43. Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur diesel spot printed $5.054 on October 27, down 31 cents in a week. US distillate stocks drew 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million, about 10% under the five-year average. Europe pledged to release 42.6 million barrels, nearly half of it diesel. Retail fell as wholesale fell, and the forecast turns on whether crude’s strength reaches the rack.
| Fuel |
Expected Range |
Direction |
CA On-Highway Diesel
(AAA, Sun 11/8) |
$8.25 – $8.42 |
↔ Flat to slightly lower. Los Angeles wholesale gave back its jump and the pump has caught down to it. Crude near $104 WTI keeps a floor under it, and Europe’s reserve release is a cushion, not new California barrels. We put the odds of a new record under 10%. The $8.5123 record is 15.6¢ above where we sit. |
CA Regular Gasoline
(AAA, Sun 11/8) |
$5.78 – $5.90 |
▼ Drifts lower. Retail fell 11.8¢ this week and 49.6¢ in a month, and winter-blend gasoline is in effect. US gasoline stocks built 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million. We did not source a Los Angeles gasoline spot print this week, so this call rests on retail momentum and stocks. The $6.4375 record is 53¢ away and we put the odds as remote. |
| EIA Print, Mon 11/2 |
CA diesel $8.04 – $8.16
CA regular $5.73 – $5.82 |
↔ Diesel flat to lower, gasoline lower. EIA ran 30¢ under AAA on diesel and 14¢ under on regular last week, so we applied those gaps to Sunday’s AAA read. The survey posts this afternoon, after you read this. |
| Central Valley Retail |
Diesel 14¢ under to 10¢ over state avg. |
↔ Holding its shape. All nine metros slipped. Stockton–Lodi is your cheapest fill at $8.215, Fresno your dearest at $8.457, a 24-cent spread across the same valley, about the same as last week. |
| Crude (WTI) |
$97 – $112 |
▲ Biased higher, headline driven. Settled $104.12 Friday as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued and tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz kept coming. Qatar-mediated talks with Iran are running in Doha with no conclusion, and reports say Washington is weighing resumed strikes. A Hormuz deal would take $10 or more off fast, and renewed strikes would test $110. Goldman Sachs puts the disruption premium near $27 a barrel. |
| Brent–WTI Spread |
$7 – $13 |
↔ Narrower on the roll. Brent’s January contract at $113.43 against December WTI at $104.12 is $9.31. At the December expiry Brent was $117.64, a $13.52 gap, inside the $11 to $16 we called last week. Brent carries the Middle East risk premium. |
▲ Pushing Prices Up |
Crude is up 15% in a month. WTI settled at $104.12 and Brent’s January contract at $113.43. Reports say Houthi missile and drone attacks hit Saudi Aramco sites, and Houthi media renewed threats against Aramco over the weekend. UKMTO logged 43 incidents in October, 30 of them direct strikes on tankers, and reported another vessel hit in Hormuz on Sunday.
Stocks are thin. Distillate inventories drew 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million, about 10% below the five-year average. US commercial crude fell for a fourth straight week to 410.6 million, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at 282.6 million barrels, down 30.9% in a year.
Washington is weighing a return to strikes. Reports say President Trump and Israel’s prime minister discussed resuming strikes on Iran. The midterm elections are Tuesday.
|
|
▼ Holding Prices Down |
Europe is releasing reserves. EU energy ministers pledged 42.6 million barrels from strategic stocks over the coming months, nearly half of it diesel. It is a cushion for the global diesel market California prices off.
Los Angeles wholesale backed off. The diesel spot fell from $5.390 on October 22 to $5.054 on October 27, and the pump has already followed part of the way.
Gasoline is long. US gasoline stocks built 3.9 million barrels when analysts expected a 0.9 million draw, and refinery utilization slipped to 92.8%. Winter-blend gasoline is in effect.
Talks are alive. Iran’s foreign minister said Hormuz could reopen within two days if the US meets Iran’s demands, and Qatari mediators are in the room. We are not planning around a deal this week.
|
|
|
Our read: The scorecard first. We called California diesel modestly higher at $8.42 to $8.62. AAA came in at $8.3562, 6.4 cents under the bottom of our range, and no record. We missed on direction for the second week running, and the reason was the same as last week: we trusted the wholesale signal to reach the pump, and this time the wholesale signal reversed. EIA diesel at $8.155 landed inside our range, EIA regular at $5.888 and AAA regular at $5.9055 landed inside ours, WTI at $104.12 sat inside our $96 to $112, and the Brent–WTI spread at $13.52 on the December contracts sat inside our $11 to $16. We named three things that would prove the diesel call wrong. The Los Angeles weekly average did not drop 15 cents (about $5.33 by our math from the daily prints, against $5.324 the week before), though the daily prints fell to $5.054 by October 27. Brent did not fall back under $108, and no Hormuz deal came. The call was wrong anyway. Here is where we are now: the pump and the wholesale market are lined up, which is why we have stopped leaning on a gap. With nothing to close, the move this week is crude. What we’d do with that: buy diesel as you use it and do not sign a term price above this week’s level. The risk is a headline jump, not a slow drift, so do not run tanks low waiting for a drop. On gasoline, buy what you need; it is drifting lower. What would prove the flat-to-lower call wrong: a Los Angeles diesel spot back above $5.35 in Wednesday’s data, Brent above $120, or US strikes on Iran resuming after the midterms. We are watching Wednesday’s distillate line and that day’s Los Angeles weekly spot number.
|
|
| ⚡ |
Section 3
Your Other Energy Costs
|
|
Propane kept climbing and natural gas bounced off a six-month low. PG&E’s agricultural winter season, which began October 1, enters its fifth week with the same 5–8 p.m. peak window. Henry Hub’s November contract expired at $2.82 after touching $2.60 on Monday, the lowest prompt-month settle in six months.
| Input |
Where It Is |
What It Means for You |
Electricity
(pump power) |
Winter season, week five
~35¢/kWh blended |
Still the cheapest thing on this page, and the gap to diesel is holding. The peak window stays at 5–8 p.m. every day, and the seasonal energy charge is below the summer level on AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA. PG&E’s 2027–2030 General Rate Case is still pending at the CPUC; as reported earlier by Agri-Pulse, a final decision is scheduled for May 2027. The statewide Wildfire Fund charge on every large utility bill is 0.591¢ per kWh in 2026. We found no new rate change or CPUC decision this week. The 35¢ figure is our blended planning estimate. Pull your own tariff before you budget against it. |
Natural Gas
(Henry Hub) |
Off its low
~$2.90–$3.07 (Dec) |
The November contract expired at $2.82 on October 28 after a $2.60 settle on October 26, the lowest prompt-month price in six months, per the American Gas Association. The December contract traded between $2.90 and $3.07 on October 29. Storage built 80 Bcf for the week ending October 23, 3 Bcf above the five-year average change, to 3,724 Bcf, about 1% above the five-year average and nearly 4% below last year. Dry gas output is running more than 4% above last year, and LNG exports hit a record 19.9 Bcf/d on October 18. Gas is still far and away your cheapest thermal Btu against $8.36 diesel. We did not source a PG&E citygate or SoCal border price this week. |
| Propane |
Rising
~$1.20/gal Mont Belvieu |
EIA’s daily Mont Belvieu print was $1.203 on October 27, up from $1.125 on October 23 and $1.133 on October 20. That is the latest print we could source; the weekly average lands Wednesday. If you have not booked frost-protection, dryer and heater gallons, this is no longer a market to wait in. We would finish those gallons this week and next, before the heating season pulls demand harder. |
LCFS &
Cap-and-Invest |
Allowances $32.48
Next auction Nov 18 |
California cap-and-invest allowances cleared at $32.48/ton at the August auction. The next joint auction with Québec is November 18 and offers 49.36 million current-vintage allowances; the 2026 annual auction reserve price is $27.94. LCFS credits were reported near $90.75 on October 9 in a third-party market report, and CARB’s own weekly average for the week of September 28 was $82.18. Treat the October figure as indicative until CARB posts its next average. These costs do not fall when crude falls. They are the permanent floor under the California premium. |
Off-Road /
Dyed Diesel |
Tracking on-highway
~73¢ tax spread |
Dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, about 72.6¢ a gallon before sales tax. That spread is fixed, so your bulk delivered price tracks on-highway in both directions. Los Angeles diesel spot printed $5.054 on October 27, down 31¢ from $5.365 on October 20. The next weekly print lands Wednesday, November 4 and covers the week ending October 30. |
Diesel pumping versus electric, at this week’s prices. The gap held. A diesel irrigation engine burns roughly 0.055 gallons per horsepower-hour at load. A 100-HP unit running eight hours is about 44 gallons a day, at Fresno’s $8.457 that is $372 a day, down from $375 last week. The same duty on an electric motor at 83 kW is 664 kWh; at 35 cents a kilowatt-hour that is $232. That is $140 a day, per pump, for running the wrong one, down from $143 last week. Over a 30-day month on three pumps it is about $12,600. Those figures use a 35-cent blended rate and standard engine fuel maps; pull your own tariff and your own engine curve before you commit, because both vary by operation.
What this week cost a 10,000-gallon harvest program. Statewide diesel slipped 9.9 cents in seven days. On 10,000 gallons that is about $990 less, with no change in what you actually did. Step back to thirty days and statewide diesel is down about 2.7 cents a gallon, or $265 less to run the same program, and a year ago the same gallons cost $32,190 less. The pump gave back a real chunk of the record this week, and wholesale is no longer pushing the other way.
|
|
| 💧 |
Section 4
Well & Pump Efficiency
|
|
The shakers are parked and the wells are about to go quiet. That is the cheapest week of the year to find out which pumps are bleeding you. A test now means the bowl work, impeller trimming or machine work gets done in the off-season while nobody is waiting on water, and you walk into next season with a tested number to budget the irrigation power line against. At $8.46 diesel, a worn diesel-driven pump costs about 1.8 times what the identical wear costs on the meter. Here is what that is worth.
| Lift |
Electric @65% |
Electric @50% |
Diesel loss |
Electric loss |
| 200 ft |
315 kWh · $110/AF |
409 kWh · $143/AF |
$59/AF · $206/ac |
$33/AF · $116/ac |
| 400 ft |
630 kWh · $220/AF |
819 kWh · $287/AF |
$118/AF · $412/ac |
$66/AF · $231/ac |
| 700 ft |
1,102 kWh · $386/AF |
1,433 kWh · $502/AF |
$206/AF · $722/ac |
$116/AF · $405/ac |
Electric at 35¢/kWh blended. Diesel at Fresno’s $8.457 pump (AAA, 11/1); off-road dyed runs about 72.6¢ lower, near $7.73. Per-acre figures assume 3.5 acre-feet on mature almonds. “Loss” is the extra cost of running a plant at 50% efficiency instead of a healthy 65%. Published guidance says 49% or less means retrofit, repair or adjustment. Pull your own tariff.
What that is on a real block. A 700-foot diesel well serving 40 acres of mature almonds at 50% efficiency is burning about $28,900 a season in pure waste, money that buys you no water and no crop. The same well on the meter wastes $16,200. A 400-foot diesel plant on 40 acres is $16,500. The 1.8-to-1 ratio holds at every depth, so if you can only afford to test a few pumps, test the diesel units first.
Why you test before you spend. A rising power bill does not tell you whether the pump is worn or the water simply got deeper. In SGMA country those are different problems with different fixes, a bowl job versus a deeper bore or a lower pump setting, and a test is the only thing that separates them. Money spent on the wrong one is gone. The tester takes four readings: standing and pumping water level (the difference is your drawdown), flow rate and discharge pressure, and power input, kWh draw for electric or fuel rate for diesel. Those give total dynamic head and overall plant efficiency. Turbine pumps are often just out of adjustment, and impeller clearance can sometimes be reset on the spot for immediate savings. A badly worn or corroded impeller cannot be adjusted back; that is machine work or replacement.
|
Who pays for the test. The Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program (APEP) is funded through the Public Purpose Programs charge you already pay on your PG&E bill and administered by the Center for Irrigation Technology at Fresno State. 800.845.6038. The subsidy goes to the testing company: $200 for a pump not tested in the prior 47 months, $100 if not tested in 23 months, $50 for a pump in series with another. You need a non-residential PG&E electric or gas account used for irrigation, 25 nameplate horsepower or more, paying the Public Purpose charge. One subsidized test per pump per 23 months. The subsidy may not cover the whole test, so get the total price in writing before you schedule. APEP also runs a separate diesel pumping efficiency track, the one to ask for at these prices. Retrofit cash incentives exist for bowl or impeller replacement, machine work and impeller trimming, but they require a pump test before and after, no more than three years apart. A VFD or motor swap by itself does not qualify.
Also live, and worth moving on: the state’s WETA program funds no-cost irrigation evaluations and pump efficiency tests through technical-assistance providers, and many of those grants end in 2026. With about eight weeks left in the year, call a provider this week rather than in January. CDFA lists the funded providers at cdfa.ca.gov/oars/technical/weta.html.
|
|
| 📰 |
Section 5
News Behind the Numbers
|
|
|
Global · Highest Impact
WTI Closed at $104.12, Up 15% in October, as Attacks on Saudi Arabia and Shipping Continue
|
|
WTI settled Friday at $104.12, up about 1% on the week and 15.2% in October. Brent’s January contract settled at $113.43, up 13.6% on the month; the December contract expired Friday at $117.64, so the lower number reflects the roll and not a drop. Reports say Houthi missile and drone attacks hit Saudi Aramco sites including Ras Tanura, Rabigh and Abqaiq, and over the weekend Houthi media renewed threats against Aramco while UKMTO reported another vessel struck in Hormuz. Qatar-mediated talks with Iran continue in Doha with no conclusion, and reports say Washington has discussed resuming strikes. OPEC+ agreed in principle to hold December targets, which adds no barrels. What it means for your fuel bill: a $10 move in a barrel of crude is worth about 24 cents a gallon of diesel, and Goldman Sachs puts the disruption premium near $27 a barrel. By our rule of thumb that is up to 65 cents a gallon that can leave in a deal, or return on escalation. The Houthi and Hormuz reports come from wire services and military-monitor accounts; several claims remain unverified.
|
|
Refining · Stocks
Distillate Stocks Drew More Than Expected and Sit 10% Below Normal
|
|
EIA’s weekly table for the week ending October 23 put US distillate inventories at 102.8 million barrels, down 1.5 million when analysts expected a 0.9 million draw, and about 10% below the five-year average. Commercial crude stocks fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million, the fourth straight weekly decline, gasoline stocks built 3.9 million to 209.2 million, and refinery utilization slipped 0.6 points to 92.8%. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve stands at 282.6 million barrels, down 30.9% from a year ago. Why it matters on the ground: thin diesel stocks are why we do not call a big drop even with Los Angeles wholesale lower. Gasoline is the other story, a 3.9 million barrel build is why we lean lower there.
|
|
Europe · Reserves
EU Will Release 42.6 Million Barrels From Strategic Stocks, Nearly Half of It Diesel
|
|
EU energy ministers meeting in Luxembourg on Thursday, October 29 agreed to speed the release of 42.6 million barrels of strategic reserves over the coming months, and Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said nearly half will be diesel. The Los Angeles diesel spot fell from $5.390 on October 22 to $5.054 on October 27, though we cannot tie that move to this announcement alone. For you: this is a cushion for the global diesel market California prices off, not new barrels landing in the Valley. It is a reason we lean flat to lower instead of higher, and it does nothing about the Houthi risk to crude.
|
|
Policy · Relief
USDA Harvest Fuel Relief: Title I Rates Due in November, Specialty Crop Growers Asked for Fuel Data
|
|
USDA’s $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief program, administered by the Farm Service Agency, will pay a uniform per-acre formula based on modeled 2026 costs, not your fuel receipts. USDA says per-acre rates for Title I commodities will be released in November, and no sign-up date has been announced. Payment methods for other commodities will come later. Specialty crop growers, which is most of the Valley, are asked to send fuel cost data to HarvestFuel@usda.gov to help set their rates, and producers can set up a Login.gov account now to get a pre-filled application. California Citrus Mutual says it is working to get cost-per-acre estimates for California growers. What it means for your costs: nothing changes at the rack, and we would still not budget against money with no published rate. Emailing your fuel numbers costs you nothing and may shape the rate.
|
|
California · Supply
Two Closed Refineries Added Little to the Premium; the Spike Was Global, Berkeley Economist Argues
|
|
A UC Berkeley Energy Institute blog post of October 26 notes that Phillips 66 stopped running crude at its Los Angeles refinery in October 2025 and Valero began shutting down crude units at Benicia at the end of January 2026, together about 18% of California’s refining capacity. The author estimates the closures added only about 4 cents a gallon to the Los Angeles gasoline premium over the Gulf Coast, says the 2026 spike was largely global because the Gulf Coast refining margin rose almost as much, and notes that renewable diesel now supplies most of California’s in-state diesel. Why it matters on the ground: the California-over-national gap of $1.80 a gallon is a structural cost you carry in good weeks and bad. It narrowed this week because California fell while the national number rose, not because the premium went away. The swings you feel come from global crude and diesel margins, so that is where we keep our eyes.
|
|
| ✅ |
Section 6
What To Do This Week
|
|
|
✓ Action Items
| 1. Buy diesel as you use it, and do not chase. Wholesale gave back its jump and the pump has caught down to it. Do not sign a term price above this week’s level, and do not run tanks low waiting for a drop. The risk is a headline jump in crude, not a slow drift. |
| 2. Make your supplier pass the drop through. Los Angeles wholesale fell 31 cents from October 20 to 27 and the statewide pump fell 9.9. Ask for the rack reference on every delivery ticket, with language that moves your price down when the rack moves down. |
| 3. Buy gasoline as you need it. Regular fell 11.8 cents and US gasoline stocks built 3.9 million barrels, so the pump should keep easing. Do not tank up early. |
| 4. Book propane this week. Mont Belvieu printed $1.203 on October 27 and is still climbing. Finish your frost-protection, dryer and heater gallons now. |
| 5. Index your surcharges to California. The DOE national average rose 7.6 cents while California fell 8.7. A national index charged you more for a cost that went down. Put the EIA California series or a West Coast rack in writing on every hauling contract. |
| 6. Send USDA your fuel numbers. Specialty crop growers are asked to email fuel cost data to HarvestFuel@usda.gov, and Title I rates are due in November. Create a Login.gov account now, keep fuel receipts and acreage records ready, and do not count on the payment in your budget. |
| 7. Book a pump test before the year ends. Start with your diesel units. The state’s WETA grants for no-cost tests end in 2026, and APEP subsidizes tests on pumps of 25 horsepower or more. Call 800.845.6038 and get the total price in writing. |
|
|
👀 What We’re Watching This Week
Monday, Nov. 2: EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel survey posts this afternoon. Our call is California diesel $8.04–$8.16 and regular $5.73–$5.82. Watch the crude open for the weekend reaction on Saudi Arabia, Hormuz and Doha.
Tuesday, Nov. 3: US midterm elections. API stocks report at 4:30 p.m. EDT. Secretary of State Rubio has said no decision has been made on resuming strikes on Iran, so the oil market may price it in before or after the vote.
Wednesday, Nov. 4: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Go straight to the distillate line. Also the EIA weekly spot price release, with the Los Angeles diesel print for the week ending October 30: that number tells us whether wholesale stays down.
Thursday, Nov. 5: EIA natural gas storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Friday, Nov. 6: October US jobs report.
Sunday, Nov. 8: AAA’s weekly read, and whether California diesel holds under $8.42.
Ongoing: Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Strait of Hormuz transit and tanker reports, the Doha talks and any US strike decision, the pace of EU and US reserve releases, USDA’s Harvest Fuel Relief rates and sign-up notice, and the November 18 cap-and-invest auction.
|
|
Let’s Build Your Energy Plan
Fuel, pumping power and input costs all run through the same budget. We can walk your operation, look at your rate schedule and pump efficiency, and time your buys around what the market is actually doing. Reach out any time.
Fuel Buying Strategy
Pumping Cost Review
Custom Blends
Soil & Water Analysis
|
|
|
We watch the world markets so you can stay focused on the ground under your boots. Every Monday morning, you’ll know what fuel and power did last week, and what we think they’ll do next.
Proudly American · Rooted in the American Dream
Bryan Mello
B Mello Ag Services, Central Valley, California
|
|
|
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Weekly Energy Update · Week 45 · Published Monday, November 2, 2026
Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports, field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.
(559) 816-3889 · bryan@bmelloag.com
This Weekly Energy Update is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Fuel, power and commodity prices are sourced from publicly available market and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to rapid change; figures are approximate and forward-looking statements reflect our current market view, not a guarantee. Retail averages will differ from your rack, cardlock or contract pricing. Pumping efficiency figures are engineering estimates based on standard formulas and house assumptions; your own tariff, engine curve, lift and water quality will change the result. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult a licensed commodity broker before making marketing or hedging decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: AAA Fuel Prices California statewide and metro averages as of November 1, 2026, including recorded highs; U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly retail gasoline and diesel price survey for the week of October 26, 2026 (next release Monday, November 2, 2026), including the U.S., West Coast PADD 5, West Coast less California and California series; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tables for the week ending October 23, 2026 as reported October 28 (next release Wednesday, November 4, 2026), via Rigzone of October 30 and the BOE Report of October 28; EIA daily spot series for Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur diesel and Mont Belvieu propane through October 27, 2026, via FRED (next weekly release November 4, 2026); FinanceFeeds, HDFC Sky and Oil Monitor reporting of October 30 to November 1, 2026 for the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI settlements of Friday, October 30, 2026 and the OPEC+ decision; American Gas Association Natural Gas Market Indicators of October 29, 2026; Xinhua reporting of October 30, 2026 on the EU strategic reserve release; Khaleej Times live coverage of November 1, 2026; USDA announcement of October 19, 2026 on the Harvest Fuel Relief program as summarized by California Citrus Mutual and Agnomy; UC Berkeley Energy Institute blog post of October 26, 2026 on California refinery closures; CCarbon and CARB notice of the November 18, 2026 joint cap-and-invest auction and the August 2026 auction result; Anvil Monitor of October 12, 2026 on LCFS credit prices; California Department of Tax and Fee Administration motor vehicle fuel and diesel excise tax rates; PG&E agricultural electric rate schedules AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA, the summer/winter season tariff and the pending 2027–2030 General Rate Case at the CPUC, as reported by Agri-Pulse; Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program eligibility and subsidy terms at pumpefficiency.org (re-checked November 2, 2026; the page dates its eligibility language to April 2015), the CDFA Water Efficiency Technical Assistance (WETA) program, and pumping plant efficiency benchmarks from Mitchell Lewis & Staver and the University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension.
Cell: (559) 816-3889
Copyright ©. All rights reserved.
You are receiving this because you opted in at B Mello Ag Services.
Update your preferences •
Unsubscribe from this list •
|
|
