Name: B. Mello Ag Services
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Weekly Energy Update · Week 41

Fuel & Energy Report

B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA

Published Monday, October 5, 2026 • Week in Review: September 28–October 4 • Forecast: October 5–11

♦ CA DIESEL $8.373 (▼4¢ WK · 2ND STRAIGHT DECLINE) ♦ LA WHOLESALE DIESEL ▼33¢ ♦ DISTILLATE DRAWS AGAIN, ▼2.3M BBL ♦ CA REGULAR $6.389 (4.9¢ FROM RECORD) ♦ WTI $91.11 FRIDAY ♦ BRENT $102.25 ♦ G7 RELEASES 100M BBL ♦ CHINA HALTS FUEL EXPORTS

All Fuel Reports

📈 This Week’s Call

Wholesale diesel fell 33 cents. The top is holding, and the inventory scare we warned about did not stop it.

Last Monday we named two tests for our call that diesel had topped. The first was wholesale: Los Angeles CARB diesel spot rising less than 20 cents confirms the top. It did not rise at all. It fell 32.9 cents to $5.036 for the week ending September 25. The second was inventories: a second straight distillate draw would undercut us. We got that one too, down 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million, far more than the 190,000-barrel draw analysts expected. The pump sided with wholesale. AAA’s Sunday read puts California diesel at $8.3729, down 4.3 cents, a second straight weekly decline and 6.6 cents under the $8.4387 record set September 22. EIA’s survey for the week ending September 28 printed $8.181, down 6.5 cents, against a national average of $6.382, down 14.7 cents. We missed low on the EIA print again. We called $8.35 to $8.46 and the actual came in 16.9 cents under the bottom of our range. EIA is running about 20 cents under AAA right now and we are widening that gap in this week’s range. Gasoline is the other half of the story. California regular finished at $6.3889, up 3.6 cents on the week and 4.9 cents from the all-time record of $6.4375. The daily read has already started to slip, $6.3938 Saturday to $6.3889 Sunday, and Governor Newsom authorized early winter-blend gasoline on September 28. We are backing off last week’s call that a record was more likely than not. Los Angeles gasoline spot rose 17 cents last week, which argues for a push, but a retail price that has stopped climbing argues for a plateau. Crude was a round trip. WTI settled Friday at $91.11, down 1.4% on the week, and Brent at $102.25, flat once the contract roll is adjusted. China ordered refiners to suspend fuel exports and crude rallied Thursday, then a coordinated G7 release of 100 million barrels of diesel and emergency stocks erased it Friday. Over the weekend Iran rejected U.S. counterproposals, a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, and OPEC+ held November output flat. Our read: the retail diesel price still has to catch down to a wholesale market that is 33 cents lower, and that is the whole forecast.

⛽

Section 1

Last Week at the Pump

AAA’s Sunday, October 4 read puts California diesel at $8.3729, down 4.3 cents on the week, a second straight weekly decline and 6.6 cents under the September 22 record. Regular finished at $6.3889, up 3.6 cents. Diesel is still up 66 cents in a month and roughly $3.22 in a year; gasoline is up 58 cents in a month. EIA’s survey for the week ending Monday, September 28 put California on-highway diesel at $8.181, down 6.5 cents, against a national average of $6.382, down 14.7 cents; EIA regular was $6.189, up 18.6 cents, catching up to AAA’s higher gasoline read. Here is the number that matters: eight of the nine Valley metros we track saw diesel ease this week, and Hanford fell 14 cents. Only Merced rose, by about a cent and a half.

CA Diesel

$8.373

statewide · AAA 10/4

↓ 4¢ wk · 2nd straight decline.

LA Wholesale

$5.036

CARB diesel spot · wk 9/25

↓ 33¢ · confirms the top.

WTI Crude

$91.11

front month · Fri 10/2

↓ 1.4% wk · Brent $102.25.

Distillate

105.2M bbl

US stocks · wk 9/25

↓ 2.3M · 2nd straight draw.

Central Valley & Reference Markets, On-Highway Diesel

Market

Diesel

Note, and where regular sits

Merced

$8.275

▲ 2¢

Cheapest diesel in the Valley, and the only metro we track that rose. 9.8¢ under the state average, four tenths of a cent under its own September 19 high of $8.279. Regular $6.303. AAA, October 4.

Bakersfield

$8.314

▼ 3¢

Second-cheapest diesel in the Valley and easing. 5.9¢ under the state average. Regular $6.342. AAA, October 4.

Stockton–Lodi

$8.341

▼ 4¢

Down four cents. North Valley hauling reference, where the walnut loads run. 3.2¢ under the state average. Regular $6.279. AAA, October 4.

Sacramento

$8.392

▼ 1¢

Essentially flat, a hair lower. 1.9¢ over the state average. Regular $6.358. AAA, October 4.

Modesto

$8.464

▼ 1¢

Barely moved. Still 9.1¢ over the state average, but regular $6.218 is the cheapest gasoline in the Valley. AAA, October 4.

Hanford–Corcoran

$8.351

▼ 14¢

The biggest drop on this table. Gave back 14 cents and went from near the top of the Valley to below the state average. Regular $6.361. AAA, October 4.

Visalia–Tulare

$8.430

▼ 10¢

Off last week’s most-expensive spot. Dropped about a dime, 5.7¢ over the state average. Regular $6.349. AAA, October 4.

Madera–Chowchilla

$8.477

▼ 1¢

Now the most expensive diesel in the Valley. Flat while its neighbors fell, 10.4¢ over the state average, a 20.2-cent spread to Merced. Regular $6.375. AAA, October 4.

Fresno

$8.454

▼ 1¢

Second straight small decline. 8.1¢ over the state average. Regular $6.421 is the priciest gasoline in the Valley and 1.7¢ under the statewide record. AAA, October 4.

California avg.

$8.373

▼ 4¢

AAA, October 4, a second straight weekly decline, 6.6¢ under the $8.4387 record. Up $0.66 in a month and $3.22 in a year. EIA’s week-ending 9/28 survey printed $8.181, down 6.5¢. Regular $6.389, up 3.6¢ on the week, $0.58 in a month and $1.74 in a year.

West Coast (PADD 5)

$7.357

n/a

EIA, week ending 9/28. Includes California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona and others. We could not source a prior-week figure on the same basis, so no weekly change is shown. California sits 82.4¢ above the West Coast region as a whole and $1.80 above the nation.

U.S. avg.

$6.382

▼ 15¢

EIA, week ending 9/28, the DOE figure your hauler’s surcharge runs off. It fell 14.7¢ while California fell 6.5¢, so the California diesel premium widened to $1.80 from $1.72. National regular $4.465.

Diesel detail: Off-road dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, roughly a 72.6¢ per gallon spread before sales tax. At Fresno’s $8.454 pump that puts dyed product near $7.73 a gallon, about $7,730 to fill a 1,000-gallon on-farm tank, down about $10 from last week’s $7,740. Price your rack and cardlock against these numbers, not the sign on the highway. Here is the test for your delivered price: Los Angeles wholesale diesel fell 32.9 cents last week and retail fell 4.3. If your delivered price has not come down, ask your supplier where the difference went. Wholesale leads the pump by one to two weeks, so some of the gap is timing. Not all of it should be.

For your surcharge tables. The DOE national on-highway diesel average of $6.382 for the week of September 28 governs fuel surcharges through early October. It fell 14.7 cents, more than twice California’s 6.5-cent drop, so the national index is running against you again. California now runs $1.80 a gallon above the national number, up from $1.72. The fix has not changed: index to the EIA California series or a West Coast rack, get it in writing, and stop letting a Gulf Coast number price a Central Valley load.

🔮

Section 2

The Week Ahead: Our Forecast

For the week of October 5 through 11. WTI settled Friday at $91.11, down $1.76 on the day and down 1.4% on the week. Brent finished at $102.25, flat on the week once the contract roll is adjusted. Friday’s selloff reversed a Thursday rally on China’s fuel-export suspension and renewed U.S.-Iran tension. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot for the week ending September 25 came in at $5.036, down 32.9 cents, and Los Angeles gasoline spot rose 17.1 cents to $4.294. The top holds. Retail diesel is still catching down. OPEC+ also held November output flat over the weekend, which removes one surprise from the week.

Fuel

Expected Range

Direction

CA On-Highway Diesel
(AAA, Sun 10/11)

$8.20 – $8.37

▼ Lower again. Wholesale fell 33¢ and retail has given back only 4¢ of it. We think next Sunday’s number is below today’s $8.3729, a third straight weekly decline, with the September 22 record of $8.4387 out of reach this week.

CA Regular Gasoline
(AAA, Sun 10/11)

$6.33 – $6.46

↔ Plateau near the record. Los Angeles gasoline spot rose 17¢ and argues for a push, but the daily read already slipped to $6.3889 and winter blend is now authorized. The $6.4375 record is 4.9¢ away. We are backing off last week’s record call: we put the odds below even this week.

EIA Print, Tue 10/6

CA diesel $8.12 – $8.26
CA regular $6.22 – $6.34

▼ Diesel lower, gasoline higher. EIA has run roughly 15 to 24¢ under AAA on both fuels the last two weeks. We called $8.35–$8.46 last week and the actual was $8.181, so we have moved the range down by roughly the size of the miss. We missed low on the last two prints.

Central Valley Retail

Diesel 10¢ under to 10¢ over state avg.

▼ Compressing. Eight of nine metros eased. Merced is your cheapest fill at $8.275, Madera your dearest at $8.477, a 20-cent spread across the same valley floor, down from 26.5 last week.

Crude (WTI)

$84 – $96

↔ Two-sided, headline-driven. Settled $91.11 Friday after a China-fueled rally on Thursday and a reserve-release selloff on Friday. Iran rejected U.S. counterproposals over the weekend. Any Hormuz headline swings this number hard in either direction.

WTI–Brent Spread

$9 – $13

▲ Stays wide. Brent $102.25 against WTI $91.11 is an $11.14 gap. Brent stays anchored to a tight global product market, which is why your rack is not falling as fast as the WTI headline suggests.

▲ Pushing Prices Up

Distillate drew a second straight week. Stocks fell 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million for the week ending September 25, against an expected 190,000-barrel draw. EIA’s September outlook already projected stocks sliding under 100 million barrels and staying tight through much of 2027.

China halted refined-product exports. Beijing told refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline shipments, which tightens Asian supply and pulls on the same Pacific barrels California competes for.

Hormuz is still shut. Iran rejected U.S. counterproposals, a tanker was struck in the Strait over the weekend, and Gulf producers are pumping 60 to 80% of normal.

▼ Holding Prices Down

Wholesale fell 33 cents. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot dropped 32.9 cents to $5.036 for the week ending September 25. This is the most important number in this issue and retail has not yet caught down to it.

A 100-million-barrel reserve release. The G7 coordinated a release of diesel and other emergency stocks Friday, following Europe’s agreement to release 50 million barrels of diesel. The barrels arrive gradually over several months, so this caps spikes more than it drops prices.

Winter-blend gasoline is authorized. Governor Newsom suspended the summer-blend requirement September 28, letting cheaper-to-make winter blend into California supply immediately.

Our read: We owe you the accounting first. We said wholesale under 20 cents confirms the top. It fell 32.9 cents, and AAA backed it with a second straight weekly decline. We also said a second distillate draw would undercut us, and we got it: 2.3 million barrels, a bigger draw than the one the week before. Here is why we still hold the call: the number that actually prices your rack ignored the draw, and the reserve release plus winter-blend gasoline both add supply. But we are less comfortable than last week. Distillate stocks are 105.2 million barrels and falling, China just pulled barrels off the export market, and the Strait has not reopened. Retail at $8.37 is sitting on top of a $5.04 wholesale market, which is a large cushion if wholesale holds, and a thin one if the next print jumps. What we’d do with that: keep buying diesel week to week, because the retail price still has to catch down to wholesale, but do not stretch your gaps. Cover named loads and named irrigation sets, and do not sign a term price into a top we have only just called. On gasoline, for trucks and equipment that burn it, fill what you need early this week: wholesale rose 17 cents and the record is within reach, even though we put the odds below even. What would prove the diesel call wrong: a third straight distillate draw on Wednesday, the Los Angeles spot print for the week ending October 2 rebounding more than 20 cents on its October 7 release, or an escalation in the Strait that snaps the war premium back into crude. Watch Wednesday’s distillate line and that same day’s Los Angeles spot number, not the crude headline.

⚡

Section 3

Your Other Energy Costs

Winter power rates began Thursday, October 1. PG&E’s agricultural summer season ran June 1 through September 30; winter runs through May 31 with the same 5–8 p.m. peak window and a lower seasonal charge. Natural gas eased back to about $3.00 and propane started climbing again.

Input

Where It Is

What It Means for You

Electricity
(pump power)

Winter season, week one
~35¢/kWh blended

Still the cheapest thing on this page, and the gap to diesel held. PG&E’s agricultural winter season began October 1 and runs through May 31. The peak window stays at 5–8 p.m. every day, and the seasonal energy charge steps down from the summer level on AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA. PG&E’s 2027–2030 General Rate Case is still pending at the CPUC with a decision expected in the first quarter of 2027; no new filing surfaced this week. The 35¢ figure is a blended statewide estimate. Pull your own tariff before you budget against it.

Natural Gas
(Henry Hub)

Eased
~$3.00/MMBtu

Henry Hub sits near $3.00, down from about $3.20 last week, up roughly 3% on the month and about 11% below a year ago. U.S. output hit a record 113.3 Bcf/d in September, and forecasts call for mostly normal temperatures through mid-October, which limits demand. Storage built 64 Bcf for the week ending September 25, below the five-year average build of 80 Bcf. LNG feedgas ran 17.9 Bcf/d in September, up from 17.2 in August. Gas is still far and away your cheapest thermal Btu against $8.37 diesel. If you can run a dryer, dehydrator or pump on gas, the soft price is an opening before winter demand. We did not source a PG&E citygate or SoCal border price this week.

Propane

Climbing again
~91¢/gal Mont Belvieu

Mont Belvieu closed near 91 cents on October 2, up from about 85.5 cents a week ago and roughly 14% on the month. EIA’s weekly spot average for the week ending September 25 was 87.8 cents, up from 86.0. The two flat weeks are over. If you have not booked frost-protection, dryer and heater gallons, this is no longer a flat market to wait in. We would finish those gallons before November rather than after.

LCFS &
Cap-and-Invest

Allowances $32.48
LCFS: no fresh print

California cap-and-invest allowances cleared at $32.48/ton at the August 19 auction, the strongest price since November 2024, with a 1.31x cover ratio. The next auction is in November. CARB resubmitted its amendments extending the program through 2045 with a September 1 effective-date target. We could not confirm a current LCFS credit price this week, so we are not printing one. The last figure we can source is CARB-reported, from March. These costs do not fall when crude falls. They are the permanent floor under the California premium.

Off-Road /
Dyed Diesel

Easing with on-highway
~73¢ tax spread

Dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, about 72.6¢ a gallon before sales tax. That spread is fixed, so your bulk delivered price tracks on-highway in both directions. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot printed $5.036 for the week ending September 25, down 32.9¢ from $5.365. The next weekly print lands October 7 and covers the week ending October 2, the verdict on whether wholesale holds its drop.

Diesel pumping versus electric, at this week’s prices. The gap held. A diesel irrigation engine burns roughly 0.055 gallons per horsepower-hour at load. A 100-HP unit running eight hours is about 44 gallons a day, at Fresno’s $8.454 that is $372 a day, unchanged from last week. The same duty on an electric motor at 83 kW is 664 kWh; at 35 cents a kilowatt-hour that is $232. That is $140 a day, per pump, for running the wrong one, the same as last week. Over a 30-day month on three pumps it is still about $12,600. Those figures use a 35-cent blended rate and standard engine fuel maps; pull your own tariff and your own engine curve before you commit, because both vary by operation.

What this week cost a 10,000-gallon harvest program. Statewide diesel fell 4.3 cents in seven days, a second straight weekly decline. On 10,000 gallons that is a savings of about $430, with no change in what you actually did. Step back to thirty days and the picture is still ugly: statewide diesel is up 66 cents a gallon from a month ago, or $6,600 more to run the same program. Two good weeks do not undo a brutal month. They are, however, two weeks in a row where the bill stopped growing.

💧

Section 4

Well & Pump Efficiency

Harvest is winding down. That is when a pump test gets cheap to act on. The well is about to go quiet, and bowl work, impeller trimming and machine work cost the least in the off-season when nobody is waiting on water. Testing slots fill from the top of the list, and at $8.45 diesel the cost of a worn plant has never been higher. A worn diesel-driven pump costs about 1.8 times what the identical wear costs on the meter. Here is what that is worth in dollars.

Lift

Electric @65%

Electric @50%

Diesel loss

Electric loss

200 ft

315 kWh · $110/AF

409 kWh · $143/AF

$59/AF · $206/ac

$33/AF · $116/ac

400 ft

630 kWh · $220/AF

819 kWh · $287/AF

$118/AF · $412/ac

$66/AF · $231/ac

700 ft

1,102 kWh · $386/AF

1,433 kWh · $502/AF

$206/AF · $722/ac

$116/AF · $405/ac

Electric at 35¢/kWh blended. Diesel at Fresno’s $8.454 pump (AAA, 10/4); off-road dyed runs about 72.6¢ lower, near $7.73. Per-acre figures assume 3.5 acre-feet on mature almonds. “Loss” is the extra cost of running a plant at 50% efficiency instead of a healthy 65%. Published guidance says 49% or less means retrofit, repair or adjustment.

What that is on a real block. A 700-foot diesel well serving 40 acres of mature almonds at 50% efficiency is burning about $28,900 a season in pure waste, money that buys you no water and no crop. The same well on the meter wastes $16,200. A 400-foot diesel plant on 40 acres is $16,500. The 1.8-to-1 ratio holds at every depth, and it is the whole argument for testing your diesel units first when you can only afford to test a few.

And here is the part that matters in SGMA country. A rising power bill does not tell you whether the pump is worn or the water simply got deeper. Those are different problems with different fixes, a bowl job versus a deeper bore or a lower pump setting, and a test is the only thing that separates them. Money spent on the wrong one is gone. A tester takes four readings: standing water level and pumping water level (the difference is your drawdown), flow rate and discharge pressure, and power input, kWh draw for electric or fuel rate for diesel. Those four give total dynamic head and therefore overall plant efficiency. Two cheap outcomes are worth knowing about: turbine pumps are often simply out of adjustment, and impeller clearance can sometimes be reset on the spot for immediate savings. A badly worn or corroded impeller cannot be adjusted back, though. That is machine work or replacement.

Who pays for the test. The Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program (APEP) is funded through the Public Purpose Programs charge you already pay on your PG&E bill and administered by the Center for Irrigation Technology at Fresno State. 800.845.6038. The subsidy goes to the testing company: $200 for a pump not tested in the prior 47 months, $100 if not tested in 23 months, $50 for a pump in series with another. You need a non-residential PG&E electric or gas account used for irrigation, 25 nameplate horsepower or more, paying the Public Purpose charge. One subsidized test per pump per 23 months. The subsidy may not cover the whole test, so get the total price in writing before you schedule. APEP also runs a separate diesel pumping efficiency track, which is the one to ask for this year given the table above. Retrofit cash incentives exist for bowl or impeller replacement, machine work and impeller trimming, but they require a pump test before and after, no more than three years apart. A VFD or motor swap by itself does not qualify.

Also live, and worth moving on: the state’s WETA program funds no-cost irrigation evaluations and pump efficiency tests through technical-assistance providers, and many of those grants expire during 2026. That window is closing on a calendar, not on a market. If you want a free evaluation out of it, call now rather than in January.

📰

Section 5

News Behind the Numbers

Global · Highest Impact

Crude Rallied on China, Then a 100-Million-Barrel Release Took It Back

China told its refiners to suspend refined-product exports, and crude jumped Thursday on that and renewed U.S.-Iran military tension. Friday the G7 coordinated a release of 100 million barrels of diesel and other emergency stocks, following Europe’s agreement to release 50 million barrels of diesel, and the rally reversed. WTI settled at $91.11, Brent at $102.25. What it means for your fuel bill: the problem has shifted from crude to refined products. Middle East crude flows are recovering, but refinery disruptions in the Middle East and Russia, plus China pulling its barrels off the export market, keep diesel tight. The released barrels arrive gradually over several months. They cap spikes, they do not push the price down this week. The IEA has said it stands ready to release more.

Refining · Second Draw

Distillate Drew Again, and Refiners Ran Slower

EIA’s report for the week ending September 25 put distillate inventories down 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million, a far bigger draw than the 190,000 barrels analysts expected. Gasoline drew 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million, the second week running at that size. Crude stocks built 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million. Refineries ran at 92.5% of capacity, down 1.5 points. The honest read: we told you a second draw would be the thing that undercut our call, and it arrived. But wholesale fell 33 cents the same week, which tells us the market is looking past one report. A third draw on Wednesday would change our mind.

California · Policy

Newsom Authorizes Winter-Blend Gasoline Early

On September 28 the Governor suspended California’s summer-blend requirement for the rest of the season and directed state agencies to allow winter-blend gasoline to be made, imported and sold immediately. He also directed the California Energy Commission to publish regular public spot-market reports for gasoline and diesel and to report renewable diesel prices separately from petroleum diesel. The announcement gave no projection of how much the move will lower pump prices. For you: winter blend is cheaper to produce and widens the pool of barrels that can be sold here, so it helps gasoline over the coming weeks. It does nothing for diesel directly. The new spot-price transparency reporting is worth watching, because it puts a public number next to the one on your delivery ticket.

Geopolitics · Hormuz

Iran Rejects U.S. Counterproposals, a Tanker Is Hit, and OPEC+ Holds

Over the weekend Iran rejected U.S. counterproposals on nuclear issues and insisted the talks focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A commercial tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait, and Houthi forces claimed missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities. OPEC+ agreed to hold output flat for November. The Strait has been effectively closed since fighting began February 28, and Gulf producers are running at roughly 60 to 80% of normal. President Trump said the war will end “very soon.” Why it matters on the ground: about 17% of California’s internationally sourced crude in 2025 passed through the Strait, so this is not an abstraction for our refiners. A peace headline can knock crude down in an hour, and an escalation can do the reverse.

California · Record Watch

Diesel Is 6.6 Cents Under Its Record. Gasoline Is 4.9 Cents Under Its Own.

California diesel set its all-time record of $8.4387 on September 22 and has since eased to $8.3729. Regular gasoline sits at $6.3889, against a record of $6.4375 from June 14, 2022. The structure behind both has not changed: the 48.2¢ state excise, cap-and-invest, LCFS costs, a fuel spec nobody else makes, and refining capacity that is shrinking as Phillips 66 and Valero facilities close, roughly 17% of state refining capacity by one account. California makes about 81% of its own gasoline and cannot lean on interstate pipelines to fill a gap. For planning: budget your 2027 fuel line, gasoline included, off a California number, not a national forecast.

Central Valley · Pump Spread

Hanford Fell 14 Cents, Visalia 10, and Madera Is Now the Priciest Fill

Eight of the nine Valley metros we track saw diesel ease this week. Hanford–Corcoran gave back 14 cents to $8.351 and Visalia–Tulare about 10 to $8.430, while Madera–Chowchilla barely moved and took over the top spot at $8.477. Merced was the only metro to rise, and it is still your cheapest fill at $8.275. What the week did to a load: a 400-mile round trip at 6 mpg burns about 67 gallons. At Fresno’s $8.454 that is $566, about a dollar under last week. Fill that same load in Madera instead of Merced and it costs you about $14 more. PG&E’s winter rates started October 1.

✅

Section 6

What To Do This Week

✓ Action Items

1. Keep buying diesel week to week. The top call held and wholesale is 33 cents lower than the week before. Cover the loads and irrigation sets you can name between now and next Monday, and do not sign a term price into the top.

2. Fill gasoline equipment early this week. Trucks, pickups, ATVs, the shop fleet. Wholesale gasoline rose 17 cents and the record is 4.9 cents away. We put the record odds below even, but the cost of being wrong is small and the downside of waiting is not.

3. Ask where the wholesale drop went. Los Angeles diesel spot fell 32.9 cents and retail fell 4.3. Get the rack basis on every delivery ticket in writing with language that moves your price down when the rack moves down, and ask your supplier about any ticket that has not.

4. Book propane now. Mont Belvieu is back near 91 cents, up about 14% on the month, after two flat weeks. Finish your frost-protection, dryer and heater gallons before November.

5. Book your pump test while the wells are about to go quiet. Harvest is winding down and bowl work costs the least in the off-season. Call APEP at 800.845.6038 and ask for the diesel track on your oldest diesel unit first. Get the full test price in writing.

👀 What We’re Watching This Week

Monday, Oct. 5: Weekend Iran and Strait of Hormuz developments, after a tanker was struck and Iran rejected U.S. counterproposals. Watch the Monday crude open. Tuesday, Oct. 6: EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel survey. Our call is California diesel $8.12–$8.26 and regular $6.22–$6.34. Also the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, where we are watching what it says about distillate stocks and diesel. Wednesday, Oct. 7: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, go straight to the distillate line, a third straight draw would undercut our call. Also the Los Angeles CARB diesel spot print for the week ending October 2. That number is the verdict on whether wholesale holds its 33-cent drop: a rebound of more than 20 cents says we spoke too soon. Thursday, Oct. 8: EIA natural gas storage report. Friday, Oct. 9: Baker Hughes rig count. Ongoing: Strait of Hormuz transit, the pace of the G7 and European reserve releases, China’s refined-product export suspension, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and whether California diesel or regular takes out its record.

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B Mello Ag Services, Central Valley, California

B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA

Weekly Energy Update · Week 41 · Published Monday, October 5, 2026

Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports, field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.

(559) 816-3889 · bryan@bmelloag.com

This Weekly Energy Update is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Fuel, power and commodity prices are sourced from publicly available market and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to rapid change; figures are approximate and forward-looking statements reflect our current market view, not a guarantee. Retail averages will differ from your rack, cardlock or contract pricing. Pumping efficiency figures are engineering estimates based on standard formulas and house assumptions; your own tariff, engine curve, lift and water quality will change the result. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult a licensed commodity broker before making marketing or hedging decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.

Data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly retail gasoline and diesel price survey for the week ending September 28, 2026, released September 29, 2026 (next release October 6, 2026), including the U.S., West Coast PADD 5 and California series; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report covering the week ending September 25, 2026, including crude, distillate and gasoline inventories and refinery utilization, as reported by BOE Report on September 30, 2026; EIA weekly spot price series for the week ending September 25, 2026, released September 30, 2026 (next release October 7, 2026), including Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur CARB diesel, Los Angeles RBOB gasoline and Mont Belvieu propane; AAA Fuel Prices California statewide and metro averages as of October 4, 2026, including recorded highs; EnergyNow.com reporting on NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent settlements for Friday, October 2, 2026, the G7 and IEA emergency stock release and China’s refined-product export suspension; Reuters-via-Daily Star reporting on China’s export suspension; The National and News4Jax reporting on the OPEC+ November production decision; Fox News reporting on U.S.-Iran developments and the Strait of Hormuz on October 3–4, 2026; Trading Economics natural gas and propane quotations as of October 2–4, 2026 and accompanying storage and LNG commentary; EIA September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook; Office of Governor Gavin Newsom release of September 28, 2026 on winter-blend gasoline; My Pro Street reporting on California price records and refinery capacity; CARB and Clear Blue Markets reporting on the August 19, 2026 cap-and-invest auction; California Department of Tax and Fee Administration motor vehicle fuel and diesel excise tax rates; PG&E agricultural electric rate schedules AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA, the summer/winter season tariff and the pending 2027–2030 General Rate Case at the CPUC; Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program (APEP) program eligibility and subsidy tiers at pumpefficiency.org, verified October 4, 2026; UC ANR pump test resources; CDFA Water Efficiency Technical Assistance (WETA) program; and Mitchell Lewis & Staver and University of Arkansas Extension reporting on pumping plant efficiency benchmarks and the 49% repair threshold.

Cell: (559) 816-3889

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