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Weekly Energy Update · Week 40

Fuel & Energy Report

B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA

Published Monday, September 28, 2026 • Week in Review: September 21–27 • Forecast: September 28–October 4

♦ CA DIESEL $8.416 (▼1¢ WK · FIRST DECLINE) ♦ LA WHOLESALE +13¢, CONFIRMS THE TOP ♦ DISTILLATE DRAW ENDS 3-WEEK BUILD ♦ CA REGULAR $6.353 (▲20¢ WK · RECORD WATCH) ♦ WTI $92.41 FRIDAY, BACK NEAR $94 MONDAY ♦ BRENT BACK OVER $105 ♦ IRAN: “READY FOR WAR” AFTER TRUMP REJECTION

All Fuel Reports

📈 This Week’s Call

Diesel confirmed the top we called. Gasoline just became the number to watch instead.

Last Monday we drew a bright line: Los Angeles CARB diesel wholesale under 20 cents for the week ending September 18 confirms our call that the top was in, over 30 cents says we were early. It came in at 12.6 cents. By our own rule, the top holds. AAA’s Sunday read agrees: California diesel closed at $8.4160, down eight tenths of a cent, the first weekly decline we have recorded this cycle. We owe you the honest counterpoint too. Distillate inventories flipped to a draw, down 0.5 million barrels to 107.4 million for the week ending September 18, ending three straight weeks of builds, and stocks are still roughly 13% under the five-year average. A draw is normally the bullish signal, not the bearish one. What actually moved the market was crude, not distillate: WTI cratered $7.89, down 7.87% on the week to $92.41, its first weekly decline since late August, as traders priced in “growing expectations” of a U.S.-Iran deal even after President Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz outright. Brent barely moved, up 45 cents to $104.32, because the diesel-linked barrel is still short: Russia extended its own diesel export ban past September on continued Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. The number that actually surprised us this week is gasoline. California regular jumped 20 cents to $6.3528, the biggest single-week gasoline move we have tracked this cycle, and it is now just 8.5 cents from the all-time state record of $6.4375 set in June 2022. We are not calling a record yet, but for the first time this year we think the odds favor one within a few weeks. One honest caution on diesel: the draw. Watch Wednesday’s distillate line before you treat the top as settled. Monday morning update: the peace hope that pulled crude down Friday did not survive the weekend. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran will not soften its terms, “ready for diplomacy, ready for war at the same time,” and crude reversed hard, WTI back near $94 and Brent back over $105 in Monday trading. That is still inside the ranges below, but the direction flipped overnight. Diesel and gasoline retail prices in this issue are Sunday’s reads and have not moved; crude is what to watch today.

⛽

Section 1

Last Week at the Pump

AAA’s Sunday, September 27 read puts California diesel at $8.4160, down 0.8 cents on the week, the first weekly decline this cycle. Regular finished at $6.3528, up a sharp 19.95 cents. Diesel is still up $1.12 in a month and roughly $3.25 in a year; gasoline is up 67 cents in a month. EIA’s survey for the week ending Monday, September 21 put California on-highway diesel at $8.246, up 20.7 cents, against a national average of $6.529, up 24.4 cents; EIA runs about a week behind AAA and is still catching up to the top. Here is the number that matters: six of the nine Valley metros we track posted fresh records Sunday, but Fresno joined Hanford and Merced in easing off its own peak, a third metro has now turned.

CA Diesel

$8.416

statewide · AAA 9/27

↓ 1¢ wk · first decline this cycle.

LA Wholesale

$5.365

CARB diesel spot · wk 9/18

↑ 13¢ · under our 20¢ line. Confirms the top.

WTI Crude

$92.41

front month · Fri 9/25

↓ 7.9% wk · Iran hopes. Brent $104.32.

ULSD Crack

~$104

per bbl · at Fri 9/25 settles

↓ from ~$112 · narrowing, confirms us.

Central Valley & Reference Markets, On-Highway Diesel

Market

Diesel

Note, and where regular sits

Merced

$8.260

▲ 2¢

Still cheapest diesel in the Valley and still below its own high. Merced peaked at $8.2790 on September 19 and remains almost 2 cents under that. 15.6¢ under the state average. Regular $6.213. AAA, September 27.

Bakersfield

$8.342

▲ 4¢

Record high, but the smallest move on this table among metros still climbing. 7.4¢ under the state average, second-cheapest diesel in the Valley. Regular $6.266. AAA, September 27.

Stockton–Lodi

$8.383

▲ 2¢

Record high, but barely moved. North Valley hauling reference, where the walnut loads run, and walnut harvest is at full run right now. Regular $6.221. AAA, September 27.

Sacramento

$8.400

↔ flat

Essentially unchanged, up three tenths of a cent. Two weeks ago Sacramento led the Valley at 42.6¢; last week it slowed to 23.5¢; this week it stopped. That is a full rollover in three weeks. Regular $6.283. AAA, September 27.

Modesto

$8.476

▲ 6¢

Record high. Regular $6.126, crossing above $6 for the first time this run. Every Valley metro we track is now over $6 gasoline. AAA, September 27.

Hanford–Corcoran

$8.490

▲ 4¢

Still nearly 7 cents under its own September 19 peak of $8.5594. This corridor led the state two weeks ago, rolled over first, and hasn’t retaken its high since. Pistachio harvest here wrapped early this year. Regular $6.276. AAA, September 27.

Visalia–Tulare

$8.525

▲ 6¢

Record high and now the most expensive diesel in the Valley, 10.9¢ above the state average, fourth week running above it. Regular $6.332. AAA, September 27.

Madera–Chowchilla

$8.487

▲ 1¢

Record high, but barely. This was the Valley’s biggest mover last week at 38.5¢ and is now nearly flat, another metro joining the slowdown. Regular $6.346, still the second-priciest gas in the Valley. AAA, September 27.

Fresno

$8.465

▼ 2¢

Last week’s priciest diesel in the Valley just turned down. Fresno joins Hanford and Merced off its high, a third metro rolling over. Regular hit a record $6.372, now the priciest gasoline in the Valley. AAA, September 27.

California avg.

$8.416

▼ 1¢

AAA, September 27, the first weekly decline we have recorded this cycle. EIA’s week-ending 9/21 survey printed $8.246, up 20.7¢ and still catching up to AAA. Regular $6.353, up nearly 20¢. Diesel is up about $1.12 in a month; gasoline is up 67¢.

West Coast less CA

$6.791

▲ 23¢

EIA, week ending 9/21. Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona. Still climbing while California eases. California sits $1.46 above the rest of the West Coast, essentially unchanged from last week.

U.S. avg.

$6.529

▲ 24¢

EIA, week ending 9/21, the DOE figure your hauler’s surcharge runs off. It rose 24.4¢, close to California’s pace. National regular $4.478 (EIA, matching AAA’s $4.480 national read). The California diesel premium narrowed slightly to $1.72 from $1.75.

Diesel detail: Off-road dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, roughly a 72.6¢ per gallon spread before sales tax. At Fresno’s $8.465 pump that puts dyed product near $7.74 a gallon, about $7,740 to fill a 1,000-gallon on-farm tank, down slightly from about $7,750 seven days ago, the first week that number has gone down instead of up. Price your rack and cardlock against these numbers, not the sign on the highway. Los Angeles wholesale rose only 12.6 cents. If your delivered price rises more than that, the gap is margin, not cost.

For your surcharge tables. The DOE national on-highway diesel average of $6.529 for the week of September 21 governs fuel surcharges through late September. It rose 24.4 cents, close to California’s own 20.7-cent EIA move, so the national index is no longer running noticeably against you the way it was a month ago. The structural gap has not closed. California still runs $1.72 a gallon above the national number. The fix has not changed: index to the EIA California series or a West Coast rack, get it in writing, and stop letting a Gulf Coast number price a Central Valley load.

🔮

Section 2

The Week Ahead: Our Forecast

For the week of September 28 through October 4. WTI settled Friday at $92.41, down $2.20 on the day and down $7.89, 7.87%, on the week, its first weekly decline since late August. Brent finished at $104.32, up only 45 cents on the week. Heating oil, the paper barrel behind your diesel, settled at $4.68 a gallon, down for a third straight session to a two-week low, which pulled the diesel crack in to roughly $104 a barrel from $112. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot for the week ending September 18 came in at $5.365, up just 12.6 cents, under the 20-cent line we drew to confirm our call. The top holds. The new number to watch is gasoline. Update as of Monday morning: crude has already given back part of Friday’s drop. Iran’s foreign minister said the country will not soften its Strait of Hormuz terms, and WTI and Brent both jumped in Monday trading, WTI back near $94 and Brent back above $105. That move is still inside the ranges below, and it does not change our diesel or gasoline retail calls, but it is a reminder that the crude side of this story can reverse in hours.

Fuel

Expected Range

Direction

CA On-Highway Diesel

$8.28 – $8.44

▼ Lower, slowly. Wholesale confirmed the top and AAA already ticked down. We think next Sunday’s number is below today’s $8.4160 again, a second straight weekly decline, unless Wednesday’s distillate draw repeats.

CA Regular Gasoline

$6.35 – $6.50

▲ Record risk. Up 20¢ this week alone on a 1.7-million-barrel gasoline draw. The state record is $6.4375 from June 2022, and we are now 8.5¢ away, closer than we have ever called it. We think the odds now favor testing that record within a few weeks.

EIA Print, Tue 9/29

CA diesel $8.35 – $8.46

▲ Still catching up, closing in on last week’s AAA reading even as AAA itself has turned down. EIA has run about a dime behind AAA all cycle. We called $8.32–$8.48 last week and the actual came in at $8.246, 7.4 cents under the bottom of our range. We missed that one low.

Central Valley Retail

Diesel 16¢ under to 11¢ over state avg.

▼ Fresno just joined Hanford and Merced. Three of nine metros are now off their highs. If Madera and Sacramento follow by Wednesday, the Valley top is confirmed almost everywhere. Merced is your cheapest fill, Visalia your dearest, a 26.5-cent spread across the same valley floor.

Crude (WTI)

$86 – $97

↔ Two-sided, volatile. Iran put a seven-day Hormuz reopening plan on the table; Trump rejected it and reportedly expects bombing to resume after the November midterms. Any headline swings this number hard in either direction this week.

WTI–Brent Spread

$10 – $14

▲ Stays wide. The spread blew out to nearly $12 this week from about $3.57, WTI reacting to Iran diplomacy while Brent stays anchored to a tight, diesel-heavy global barrel. That gap is why your rack isn’t falling as fast as the WTI headline suggests.

▲ Pushing Prices Up

Distillate flipped to a draw. Inventories fell 0.5 million barrels to 107.4 million for the week ending September 18, ending three straight weeks of builds. Stocks are still roughly 13% under the five-year average. A draw is normally the bullish signal, not the bearish one.

Russia extended its diesel export ban. Continued Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked several of Russia’s largest diesel refineries offline or sharply reduced output, and Moscow kept its export ban in place past September. That is why Brent, the diesel-linked barrel, barely budged this week.

California gasoline is surging. Gasoline stocks drew 1.7 million barrels, and CA regular jumped 20 cents in a single week, our biggest weekly gasoline move this cycle.

▼ Holding Prices Down

Wholesale confirmed our call. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot rose 12.6 cents for the week ending September 18, under the 20-cent line we drew last week. This is the single most important number in this issue and it is why AAA’s retail read finally turned down too.

Saudi exports hit their highest level since the war began. Despite the September 11 pipeline attack, Saudi Arabia restored the East-West line and worked around the damage. Global crude supply is not as tight as the headlines suggested.

WTI cratered on peace hopes. Down $7.89 on the week to $92.41 as traders priced in a possible U.S.-Iran deal, even though Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day framework outright on Friday.

Our read: We owe you a straight accounting first. Last week we drew a bright line: Los Angeles wholesale under 20 cents confirms the top, over 30 says we were early. It came in at 12.6 cents, and AAA’s Sunday read backed it up with the first weekly decline this cycle. By our own rule, we were right. But we told you a distillate draw would be one of the things that proves us wrong, and we got one anyway: inventories fell 0.5 million barrels, ending three weeks of builds. Here is why we still think the call holds: the draw was small, stocks remain the tightest they have been all year relative to the five-year average, and the number that actually prices your rack, wholesale, did not react to it at all. What actually happened this week is that two different markets split apart. Diesel is rolling over on ample supply and a crude price that just fell 8% on peace hopes. Gasoline is not, it built on demand that did not soften the way the calendar said it should, and it is now nine cents from a four-year-old record. What we’d do with that: keep buying diesel week to week, exactly as we said last time, and the case for waiting on a term price is now a little stronger, not weaker. On gasoline, for equipment and trucks that burn it, the opposite: do not wait. The direction is one-way this week and the ceiling is closer than it has ever been. What would prove the diesel call wrong: a second straight distillate draw on Wednesday, the Los Angeles spot print re-accelerating past 30 cents on the September 30 release, or a collapse in the current Iran diplomacy that snaps the war-risk premium back into WTI. Watch Wednesday’s distillate line and that same day’s Los Angeles spot number, not the crude headline.

⚡

Section 3

Your Other Energy Costs

Three days of summer tariff left. PG&E’s agricultural summer season runs June 1 through September 30, with the peak window at 5–8 p.m. every day of the year, holidays included, and no partial-peak on the ag time-of-use schedules. Winter season begins Thursday, October 1 and runs through May 31; the 5–8 p.m. peak window itself does not change, but the seasonal energy charge steps down. Natural gas spiked to a 13-week high before pulling back, and propane held flat for a second straight week.

Input

Where It Is

What It Means for You

Electricity
(pump power)

Last week of summer
~35¢/kWh blended

Still the cheapest thing on this page, and the gap held instead of widening this week. Summer season on the agricultural schedules (AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA) runs through Wednesday, September 30; winter season starts Thursday and runs to May 31, same 5–8 p.m. peak window, lower seasonal charge. PG&E’s 2027–2030 General Rate Case is still pending at the CPUC, with a decision expected in the first quarter of 2027; PG&E has asked for an 8% test-year increase and 6.1% in each of 2028, 2029 and 2030. No new data this week. The 35¢ figure is a blended statewide estimate, pull your own tariff before you budget against it.

Natural Gas
(Henry Hub)

Jumped, then eased
~$3.20/MMBtu

The benchmark touched a 13-week high on supply disruptions in West Virginia before easing 3% Friday to about $3.20, still up roughly 10% from $2.912 three weeks ago. LNG export flows are running 17.8 Bcf/d in September, up from 17.2 in August, and that demand is not going away. Storage built 53 Bcf for the week ending September 18 to 3,351 Bcf, 2.9% above the five-year average but 4.2% below a year ago. Gas is still far and away your cheapest thermal Btu against $8.42 diesel, but the free ride on price is clearly ending. If you can run a dryer, dehydrator or pump on gas, do it now rather than after winter demand shows up.

Propane

Still flat
~85.5¢/gal Mont Belvieu

Second flat week in a row after the summer-long climb. Mont Belvieu is sitting near 85.5 cents, essentially unchanged from last Friday’s close. A market that stops climbing right before frost season is not a market you should assume stays cheap. If you booked last week or the week before, good. If you have not, this is still as good an entry as you are likely to get, and we would finish your frost protection, dryer and heater gallons before November rather than after.

LCFS &
Cap-and-Invest

LCFS up sharply
~$66.50/ton credit

LCFS spot credits have traded as high as $66.50 a ton, with December 2026 futures near $72, up 13% this month and reversing from lows near $40 last year. New deficits have outpaced credits for the first time in over four years, and renewable diesel supply is down sharply, so the program is tightening from both sides. Cap-and-invest allowances are unchanged at $32.48/ton from the August 19 auction; the next auction is in November. These costs do not fall when crude falls. They are the permanent floor under the California premium.

Off-Road /
Dyed Diesel

Rolling over with on-highway
~73¢ tax spread

Dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, about 72.6¢ a gallon before sales tax. That spread is fixed, so your bulk delivered price tracks on-highway in both directions. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot printed $5.365 for the week ending September 18, up only 12.6¢ from $5.239, under the 20-cent line that confirms our call. The next weekly print lands September 30 and covers the week ending September 25, the verdict on whether the rollover is holding into a second week.

Diesel pumping versus electric, at this week’s prices. The gap held instead of widening, for the first time in over a month. A diesel irrigation engine burns roughly 0.055 gallons per horsepower-hour at load. A 100-HP unit running eight hours is about 44 gallons a day, at Fresno’s $8.465 that is $372 a day, essentially flat against $373 last week. The same duty on an electric motor at 83 kW is 664 kWh; at 35 cents a kilowatt-hour that is $232, unchanged. That is $140 a day, per pump, for running the wrong one, about the same as last week for the first time this cycle. Over a 30-day month on three pumps it is still about $12,600. Those figures use a 35-cent blended rate and standard engine fuel maps; pull your own tariff and your own engine curve before you commit, because both vary by operation.

What this week cost a 10,000-gallon harvest program. Statewide diesel actually fell 0.8 cents in seven days, the first week that has happened this cycle. On 10,000 gallons that is a savings of about $80, with no change in what you actually did. Step back to thirty days and the picture is very different: statewide diesel is up $1.12 a gallon from August 31, or $11,200 more to run the same 10,000-gallon program than a month ago. One good week does not undo a brutal month. It is, however, the first sign that the bill stops growing every single week.

📰

Section 4

News Behind the Numbers

Global · Highest Impact

Iran Put a Seven-Day Peace Plan on the Table. Trump Said No. Crude Fell Anyway.

Iranian mediators submitted a framework at the U.N. General Assembly this week: the U.S. lifts its naval blockade, unfreezes Iranian assets and eases oil sanctions, and in exchange Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz over a seven-day timeline and returns to nuclear talks. Foreign Minister Araghchi called it ready to go the moment Washington accepts. President Trump rejected it outright, and the Wall Street Journal reported he privately expects bombing to resume once the November midterms are past. Here is the part that matters for your fuel bill: crude sold off Friday anyway, on nothing more than “growing expectations” that some deal eventually gets done. WTI fell $7.89 on the week to $92.41. A market pricing hope even after the formal answer was no is a market that wants to go down. That is a fragile kind of cheap, and it can reverse on a single headline.

Supply · Scare Confirmed Over

Saudi Crude Exports Just Hit Their Highest Level Since the War Began

Two weeks ago a drone strike shut Saudi Arabia’s 7-million-barrel-a-day East-West pipeline, the route that moves crude to the Red Sea without transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and we called it the scare that could break our forecast. It did not. Saudi Arabia restored the line and worked around the remaining damage so effectively that its crude exports have now climbed to the highest level since the Iran war began, despite the outage. That is the clearest evidence yet that global crude supply is not as tight as the September headlines implied, and it is a big part of why WTI could fall 8% this week without anything actually running short. Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue to raise the risk, but for now the barrels are moving.

Refining · Reversal

Distillate Flips to a Draw, Ending Three Weeks of Builds

EIA’s report for the week ending September 18 put distillate inventories down 0.5 million barrels to 107.4 million, ending three straight weekly builds. Crude stocks built 3.0 million barrels to 426.4 million, and gasoline drew 1.7 million barrels to 206.0 million, which is the demand-side story behind this week’s gasoline surge. Refineries ran at 96.6% of capacity on a four-week-average basis. The honest read: a distillate draw is normally the bullish signal, the one that argues against our call that diesel has topped. But it was a small draw against a backdrop where wholesale, the number that actually prices your rack, did not react to it at all. Stocks remain roughly 13% below the five-year average. This is not the all-clear. It is one data point pulling against six others that still point down.

Washington · Policy

The White House Denies a Diesel Export Ban. Something Is Still Being Discussed.

Politico reported the administration was weighing a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports to fight record pump prices. The White House called that report “fake.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed what is actually on the table is voluntary cooperation with refiners to route more diesel to U.S. tanks, not a mandatory ban, and he warned publicly that a hard ban could backfire: refiners hitting storage limits would cut output across the board, raising gasoline and jet fuel prices to bring down diesel. Meanwhile the bigger diesel story is happening in Russia, not Washington. Moscow extended its own diesel export ban past September as Ukrainian drone strikes continue knocking its largest refineries offline. Between the two, global diesel supply stays tighter than U.S. crude alone would suggest, which is exactly why Brent has held near $104 even as WTI cratered.

California · Record Watch

Diesel Finally Eased. Gasoline Is Now Nine Cents From a Four-Year-Old Record.

AAA’s Sunday read put California regular gasoline at $6.3528, up 20 cents in a single week, the largest weekly gasoline move we have tracked this cycle. The all-time state record is $6.4375, set in June 2022, and this week’s jump puts us 8.5 cents away, closer than we have ever called it. Every Central Valley metro we track is now over $6 gasoline for the first time this run, including Modesto, the last holdout. Diesel, meanwhile, did the opposite: the statewide average fell for the first time this cycle, and Fresno joined Hanford and Merced in easing off its own high, a third metro rolling over. The structure behind both hasn’t changed: the 48.2¢ state excise, cap-and-invest, LCFS deficits, a fuel spec nobody else makes, and refining capacity that has shrunk sharply since the Phillips 66 Los Angeles shutdown and Valero’s exit from Benicia. For planning: budget your 2027 fuel line, gasoline included, off a California number, not a national forecast.

Central Valley · Harvest Now

Pistachios Wrapped Early, Walnuts Are at Full Run, and Summer Power Rates End Wednesday

Pistachio harvest ended earlier than usual this year across the southern San Joaquin, trade reporting shows, consistent with the light crop we flagged in Hanford–Corcoran two weeks ago. Walnut harvest is at full run, and growers’ main focus right now is protecting kernel quality through the pickup, exactly where Stockton–Lodi and Sacramento diesel demand is concentrated. Almonds are finishing up under real mite pressure this season, with some orchards seeing substantial defoliation, which growers will be managing into the off-season regardless of what fuel does. What the week did to a load: a 400-mile round trip at 6 mpg burns about 67 gallons. At Fresno’s $8.465 that is $567, essentially flat against $568 last week. And PG&E’s ag summer tariff ends Wednesday, September 30. Three days.

✅

Section 5

What To Do This Week

✓ Action Items

1. Keep buying diesel week to week. The top call held. Cover the loads and the irrigation sets you can actually name between now and next Monday. The case for waiting on a term price is a little stronger than it was seven days ago, not weaker.

2. Do not wait on gasoline-fueled equipment. Trucks, pickups, ATVs, the shop fleet: anything running on gas should be fueled now. California regular is up 20 cents in a week and 8.5 cents from an all-time record. This direction is one-way this week.

3. Keep the downside clause in your basis. Get the rack basis on every delivery ticket in writing with language that moves your price down when the rack moves down. Diesel just turned; make sure your supplier passes that through instead of sitting on it.

4. Book propane before frost season if you have not. Mont Belvieu has been flat for two straight weeks after a summer-long climb. That is as good an entry as you are likely to see before the season turns.

5. Use the last three days of summer power rates, then let the calendar do the rest. PG&E’s ag summer season ends Wednesday, September 30. Clear heavy pumping out of the 5–8 p.m. window through Wednesday; from Thursday the seasonal rate step-down starts doing the work for you.

👀 What We’re Watching This Week

Monday, Sep. 28: Iran says it will not soften its Strait of Hormuz terms; crude jumped on the news, WTI back near $94 and Brent back above $105 in Monday trading. Final three days of PG&E’s ag summer season. Tuesday, Sep. 29: EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel survey. Our call is California diesel $8.35–$8.46, gasoline pushing toward $6.40–$6.50. Wednesday, Sep. 30: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, go straight to the distillate line, a second straight draw would undercut our call. Also the Los Angeles CARB diesel spot print for the week ending September 25. That number is the verdict on whether the rollover holds into a second week: under 20 cents keeps us right, over 30 says we spoke too soon. Also the last day of PG&E’s agricultural summer season. Thursday, Oct. 1: PG&E winter rates begin; EIA natural gas storage report. Friday, Oct. 2: Baker Hughes rig count. Ongoing: any move past Iran’s rejected framework, Strait of Hormuz transit, Houthi activity toward Saudi infrastructure, how long Russia’s diesel export ban runs, and whether California regular gasoline takes out the June 2022 record. Local: walnut harvest at full run, almond loads continuing under mite pressure, pistachio harvest wrapped.

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B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA

Weekly Energy Update · Week 40 · Published Monday, September 28, 2026

Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports, field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.

(559) 816-3889 · bryan@bmelloag.com

This Weekly Energy Update is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Fuel, power and commodity prices are sourced from publicly available market and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to rapid change; figures are approximate and forward-looking statements reflect our current market view, not a guarantee. Retail averages will differ from your rack, cardlock or contract pricing. Pumping efficiency figures are engineering estimates based on standard formulas and house assumptions; your own tariff, engine curve, lift and water quality will change the result. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult a licensed commodity broker before making marketing or hedging decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.

Data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly retail gasoline and diesel price survey for the week ending September 21, 2026, released September 22, 2026 (next release September 29, 2026), including the U.S., West Coast PADD 5, West Coast less California and California series; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released September 24, 2026 covering the week ending September 18, 2026, including crude, distillate and gasoline inventories and refinery utilization; EIA weekly Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur CARB diesel spot price series for the week ending September 18, 2026, released September 23, 2026 (next release September 30, 2026); AAA Fuel Prices national, California statewide and California metro averages as of September 27, 2026, including recorded metro highs; EnergyNow.com, Sunday Guardian Live and CNBC reporting on NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent settlements for Friday, September 25, 2026; Trading Economics natural gas, heating oil and propane quotations as of September 25, 2026 and accompanying natural gas storage commentary; EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update and working gas in storage for the week ending September 18, 2026; Fox News, CNBC and Wall Street Journal reporting on Iran’s proposed seven-day Strait of Hormuz reopening framework and the administration’s response; CNBC reporting on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline restoration and record crude export levels; U.S. News, the Hill, Benzinga and Reuters reporting on the White House’s denial of a diesel export ban and Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s comments; Ukrainska Pravda and Bloomberg reporting on Russia’s extended diesel export ban; Argus Media reporting on California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit prices; CARB cap-and-invest auction results released August 26, 2026; California Department of Tax and Fee Administration motor vehicle fuel and diesel excise tax rates; PG&E agricultural electric rate schedules AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA, the summer/winter season tariff and the pending 2027–2030 General Rate Case at the CPUC; California Energy Commission refinery capacity data and reporting on the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery shutdown and Valero’s Benicia refinery exit; and Pacific Nut Producer and West Coast Nut trade reporting on the 2026 California almond, walnut and pistachio harvest.

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