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Weekly Energy Update · Week 39
Fuel & Energy Report
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published Monday, September 21, 2026 • Week in Review: September 14–20 • Forecast: September 21–27
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♦ CA DIESEL $8.424 (▲29¢ WK · NEW RECORD) ♦ LA WHOLESALE SLOWED 57¢ → 14¢ ♦ 3RD STRAIGHT DISTILLATE BUILD ♦ CA REGULAR $6.153 (▲17¢ WK) ♦ WTI $100.30 (▼FRI) ♦ BRENT $103.87 ♦ OMAN TALKS POSTPONED
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📈 This Week’s Call
The thing we said would prove us wrong happened. The market topped anyway. We are calling it.
Last Monday we said the wholesale top was in or within days, and we named three things that would break that call: the Oman meeting collapsing, a strike on Saudi or Emirati export infrastructure, or a third week of distillate draws. The first one happened. The Salalah talks were postponed indefinitely at Saudi Arabia’s request, with no new date set. The Saudi pipeline was already shut when we made that call, and what changed this week is that it is coming back. The third went our way: distillate built again. By our own rule the Oman collapse alone should have us eating our words. Instead, look at what the market actually did. Los Angeles CARB diesel wholesale rose 13.7 cents for the week ending September 11, after rising 57.2 cents the week before. That is the number that prices your rack two weeks from now, and it just slowed by three quarters. Distillate inventories built 1.6 million barrels, the third straight build. Refinery runs eased off the ceiling to 96.8%. Crude finished the week flat, with WTI at $100.30 against $100.05 last Friday and Brent down 74 cents. And in the Valley, Hanford–Corcoran peaked Friday and Merced peaked Saturday, and both are already down off those highs. Retail set another state record Sunday at $8.4244 because retail is always the last to know. We think the cycle high prints Monday or Tuesday and the number is lower next Sunday than it is today. One honest caution: the diesel crack widened again, to roughly $112 a barrel. The paper market has not confirmed us yet.
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Section 1
Last Week at the Pump
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AAA’s Sunday, September 20 read puts California diesel at $8.4244, up 28.8 cents on the week and another all-time record. Regular finished at $6.1533, up 16.6 cents. Diesel is up $1.39 in a month and $3.26 in a year. EIA’s survey for the week ending Monday, September 14 put California on-highway diesel at $8.039, up 27.5 cents, against a national average of $6.285, up 31.8 cents. Here is the number nobody is printing: California’s weekly move was cut roughly in half, from 54.6 cents to 27.5 cents, and it was smaller than the national move for the first time since July. Seven of the nine Valley metros we track still set records Sunday. Two did not, and those two are the tell.
| CA Diesel |
| $8.424 |
| statewide · AAA 9/20 |
| ↑ 29¢ wk · new record. Up $3.26 in a year. |
| LA Wholesale |
| $5.239 |
| CARB diesel spot · wk 9/11 |
| ↑ 14¢ · after 57¢ the week before. |
| WTI Crude |
| $100.30 |
| front month · Fri 9/18 |
| ↓ $1.93 Fri · flat on the week. Brent $103.87. |
| ULSD Crack |
| ~$112 |
| per bbl · at Fri 9/18 settles |
| ↑ wider again · the one thing not confirming. |
Central Valley & Reference Markets, On-Highway Diesel
| Market |
Diesel |
Wk |
Note, and where regular sits |
| Merced |
$8.236 |
▲ 23¢ |
Cheapest diesel in the Valley, smallest weekly move on this table, and one of two metros already off its high. Merced peaked Saturday at $8.2790 and has come back 4 cents. 19¢ under the state average. Regular $6.037. AAA, September 20. |
| Bakersfield |
$8.298 |
▲ 30¢ |
Record high. The $8 line we said would not hold lasted three days. Still 13¢ under the state average and second-cheapest in the Valley. Regular $6.089. AAA, September 20. |
| Stockton–Lodi |
$8.361 |
▲ 28¢ |
Record high. North Valley hauling reference, where the walnut loads run. Up $1.48 in thirty days. Regular $6.018. AAA, September 20. |
| Sacramento |
$8.400 |
▲ 23¢ |
Record high, but the second-smallest weekly move in the Valley at 23.5¢, behind only Merced, after leading the Valley last week at 42.6¢. That reversal is exactly what a top looks like. Regular $6.073. AAA, September 20. |
| Modesto |
$8.419 |
▲ 35¢ |
Record high. Regular $5.940, the only Valley metro still under $6 gasoline and 21¢ below the state average. AAA, September 20. |
| Hanford–Corcoran |
$8.447 |
▲ 28¢ |
Peaked Friday at $8.5594 and is already 11 cents off that high. This corridor led the state two weeks ago and is now the first to roll. Light pistachio crop, fewer loads. Regular $6.119. AAA, September 20. |
| Visalia–Tulare |
$8.469 |
▲ 30¢ |
Record high, 4.4¢ above the state average, third week running above it. Up $1.58 in a month. Regular $6.129. AAA, September 20. |
| Madera–Chowchilla |
$8.473 |
▲ 39¢ |
Record high and the biggest weekly move in the Valley at 38.5¢. Worst 30-day move on this table, up $1.62. Most expensive gasoline in the Valley at $6.163. AAA, September 20. |
| Fresno |
$8.480 |
▲ 35¢ |
Record high and now the most expensive diesel in the Valley, 5.6¢ above the state average. Up $1.52 in a month. Regular $6.149. AAA, September 20. |
| California avg. |
$8.424 |
▲ 29¢ |
AAA, September 20, all-time state record, set today. EIA’s week-ending 9/14 survey printed $8.039, up 27.5¢ after 54.6¢ the week before. Regular $6.153. Diesel is up $1.39 in a month and $3.26 in a year. |
| West Coast less CA |
$6.566 |
▲ 25¢ |
EIA, week ending 9/14. Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona. They moved 25.2¢ against our 27.5¢, so the region is moving as one block now. California still sits $1.47 above the rest of the West Coast. |
| U.S. avg. |
$6.285 |
▲ 32¢ |
EIA, week ending 9/14, the DOE figure your hauler’s surcharge runs off. It rose 31.8¢, more than California did. National regular $4.476 (AAA, 9/20). The California diesel premium narrowed to $1.75 from $1.80. |
Diesel detail: Off-road dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, roughly a 72.6¢ per gallon spread before sales tax. At Fresno’s $8.480 pump that puts dyed product near $7.75 a gallon, about $7,750 to fill a 1,000-gallon on-farm tank, up from about $7,405 seven days ago. Price your rack and cardlock against these numbers, not the sign on the highway, and this week ask your supplier where his replacement cost sits. Los Angeles wholesale rose only 13.7 cents. If your delivered price rises 30, that gap is margin, not cost.
For your surcharge tables. The DOE national on-highway diesel average of $6.285 for the week of September 14 governs fuel surcharges effective September 16 through 22. It rose 31.8 cents, more than California’s 27.5, which means for one week the national index worked in your favor instead of against you. Do not get comfortable. That is the first time in two months it has happened, and the structural gap is still $1.75 a gallon. The fix has not changed: index to the EIA California series or a West Coast rack, get it in writing, and stop letting a Gulf Coast number price a Central Valley load.
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Section 2
The Week Ahead: Our Forecast
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For the week of September 21 through 27. WTI settled Friday at $100.30, down $1.93 on the day and essentially flat against last Friday’s $100.05. Brent finished at $103.87, down 74 cents on the week. Heating oil, the paper barrel behind your diesel, settled at $5.0578 a gallon, up about 2% on the week and 120% on the year, which pushed the diesel crack to roughly $112 a barrel. That is the one number arguing against us. Everything else moved our way: Los Angeles CARB diesel spot for the week ending September 11 came in at $5.239, up just 13.7 cents after a 57.2-cent week, and retail runs one to two weeks behind that. We are calling the top.
| Fuel |
Expected Range |
Direction |
| CA On-Highway Diesel |
$8.38 – $8.52 |
▲ Peak, then lower. We think the cycle high prints Monday or Tuesday somewhere under $8.50, and that next Sunday’s number is below today’s $8.4244. That would be the first weekly decline since early August. Wholesale no longer supports another 30-cent leg. |
| CA Regular Gasoline |
$6.15 – $6.28 |
▲ Higher, but slowing, 0 to 13¢. Gasoline stocks built 0.8 million barrels and post-Labor Day demand is soft. The state record is $6.4375 from June 2022. We still are not calling it, but this is the closest we have come, 28¢ away. |
| EIA Print, Tue 9/22 |
CA diesel $8.32 – $8.48 |
▲ Higher, a 28 to 44¢ jump, catching up to AAA. EIA has been running about a dime under AAA at the same date. This is the last big EIA number we expect this cycle. We called $8.05–$8.25 last week against an actual $8.039, just under our range. |
| Central Valley Retail |
Diesel 19¢ under to 6¢ over state avg. |
▼ Watch Hanford and Merced. Both peaked before the weekend and are easing. If Fresno and Madera follow them down by Wednesday, the Valley top is confirmed. Merced is your cheapest fill, Fresno your dearest, a 24-cent spread across the same valley floor. |
| Crude (WTI) |
$94 – $105 |
↔ Two-sided, biased lower. Saudi Arabia is bringing the East-West pipeline back and the Energy Secretary put the outage in days, not weeks. Against that, the Salalah talks are off with no new date. Pipeline restart beats diplomacy for price this week. |
▲ Pushing Prices Up |
The crack got wider, not narrower. Heating oil settled at $5.0578 Friday, putting the ULSD crack near $112 a barrel against roughly $108 last week. Normal is $15 to $25. Until that breaks, every refiner on earth keeps bidding for diesel barrels.
The Oman talks are off. The Salalah meeting was postponed indefinitely at Saudi Arabia’s request, with no new date. The risk premium we thought might come out of crude has stayed in.
Distillate stocks are still 13% under the five-year average at 107.9 million barrels, and EIA expects them under 100 million this month. Three builds do not fix a structural hole.
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▼ Holding Prices Down |
Wholesale slowed by three quarters. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot rose 13.7 cents for the week ending September 11 after 57.2 cents the week before. This is the single most important number in this issue. It is what your rack costs in two weeks.
A third straight distillate build. Inventories rose 1.6 million barrels after 2.1 and 0.8, a 4.5-million-barrel swing in three weeks. Distillate demand is down 3.3% year over year on the four-week average.
Saudi crude is coming back. The East-West pipeline is being restored, with roughly half of its 7 million barrel a day capacity targeted within days.
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Our read: We owe you a straight accounting first. Last week we said the wholesale top was in or within days, and we named three things that would prove us wrong. The Oman meeting collapsed, which is one of them. The Saudi pipeline strike was already known when we made the call, and the third, a distillate draw, never came. By our own stated rule we lost that bet on Oman alone. And yet the market slowed anyway, which is a stronger signal than if nothing had gone wrong at all. When a market takes its most bullish headline of the month and the wholesale move still drops from 57 cents to 14, that is not diplomacy holding it down. That is supply catching demand. Here is the reasoning in one line: retail is still climbing on wholesale that was bought two weeks ago, and the wholesale being bought today is barely moving. What we’d do with that: cover the loads actually in front of you this week and nothing beyond them. Do not sign a term price at $8.42. Do not prebuy October. Get your basis in writing with a downside clause so you capture the roll instead of waiting for your supplier to volunteer it, because he will not. What would prove us wrong: a distillate draw on Wednesday, the Los Angeles spot print re-accelerating past 30 cents on the September 23 release, or a strike that takes out Saudi or Emirati export capacity for weeks rather than days. Any of those and we are back to $8.75 and we will say so plainly. Watch the Wednesday distillate line and the Los Angeles spot number, not the crude headline.
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Section 3
Your Other Energy Costs
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Ten days of summer tariff left. PG&E’s agricultural summer season runs June 1 through September 30, with the peak window at 5–8 p.m. every day of the year, holidays included, and no partial-peak on the ag time-of-use schedules. October 1 is when that block gets cheaper, and that is ten days out. Natural gas ticked up on late heat and propane finally stopped climbing, which is the first flat week that market has had in over a month.
| Input |
Where It Is |
What It Means for You |
Electricity
(pump power) |
Steady
~35¢/kWh blended |
Still the cheapest thing on this page, and the gap widened for a fifth straight week. No PG&E rate change lands this week. Summer season on the agricultural schedules (AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA) runs through September 30, ten days, with the 5–8 p.m. peak applying daily. PG&E’s 2027–2030 General Rate Case is still pending at the CPUC, with a decision expected in the first quarter of 2027; PG&E has asked for an 8% test-year increase and 6.1% in each of 2028, 2029 and 2030. The 35¢ figure is a blended statewide estimate, pull your own tariff before you budget against it. |
Natural Gas
(Henry Hub) |
Firming
$2.91/MMBtu |
The benchmark stood at $2.912 on September 18, up 3.5% in a month and now 0.8% above a year ago. Note the change: gas is no longer cheaper than last September. Utilities injected only 44 Bcf for the week ending September 11 against a 74 Bcf five-year average, cutting the surplus to 118 Bcf from 148. Stocks are 3.298 trillion cubic feet, 3.7% above the five-year average. Lower 48 production is running 113.1 Bcfd, a record. Gas is still far and away your cheapest thermal Btu against $8.42 diesel. If you can run a dryer, dehydrator or pump on gas, do it, but the free ride on price is over. |
| Propane |
Flat
~84¢/gal Mont Belvieu |
The run stopped. Mont Belvieu printed 85.5 cents on September 11 and eased to about 84 cents by Friday, up 9.8% in a month and 18.3% on the year but flat to lower on the week. It did that while stocks drew 1.4 million barrels and the surplus to the five-year average narrowed from 27% to 22%. A drawing market that will not rally is a tired market. If you took our advice last week and booked, good. If you did not, this is a better entry than last Monday was, and we would still finish your frost protection, dryer and heater gallons before November rather than after. |
LCFS &
Cap-and-Invest |
Unchanged
$32.48/ton allowance |
No new data this week. The last cap-and-invest auction, settled August 19 with results published August 26, cleared current-vintage allowances at $32.48, up from $28.81 in May, with all 49,016,180 allowances sold against a 2026 annual reserve price of $27.94. LCFS credits averaged near $63 a ton in the first quarter of 2026 and have stayed firm, with deficits exceeding credits for the first time in over four years. Diesel generates more deficits per gallon than gasoline. The next auction is in November. These costs do not fall when crude falls. They are the permanent floor under the California premium, and they are why $1.75 does not go back to $1.00 even if we are right about the top. |
Off-Road /
Dyed Diesel |
Topping with on-highway
~73¢ tax spread |
Dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise (raised from 46.6¢ on July 1) and the 24.4¢ federal excise, about 72.6¢ a gallon before sales tax. That spread is fixed, so your bulk delivered price tracks on-highway in both directions. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot printed $5.239 for the week ending September 11, up only 13.7¢ from $5.102 after the prior week’s 57.2¢ jump. The next weekly print lands September 23 and covers the week ending September 18. That number is this week’s verdict on our call. Under 20 cents and the top is confirmed; over 30 and we were early. |
Diesel pumping versus electric, at this week’s prices. The gap widened for the fifth straight week. A diesel irrigation engine burns roughly 0.055 gallons per horsepower-hour at load. A 100-HP unit running eight hours is about 44 gallons a day, at Fresno’s $8.480 that is $373 a day, against $358 last week and $320 three weeks ago. The same duty on an electric motor at 83 kW is 664 kWh; at 35 cents a kilowatt-hour that is $232. That is $141 a day, per pump, for running the wrong one, up from $126 seven days ago. Over a 30-day month on three pumps it is about $12,700. Those figures use a 35-cent blended rate and standard engine fuel maps; pull your own tariff and your own engine curve before you commit, because both vary by operation.
What this week cost a 10,000-gallon harvest program. Statewide diesel rose 28.8 cents in seven days. On 10,000 gallons that is $2,877, with no change in what you actually did. In Madera, where the move was 38.5 cents, the same volume cost $3,853 more than a week ago. Step back to thirty days and the statewide number is $13,856 on the same 10,000 gallons. If we are right that this is the top, the next thirty days give some of that back. Which is precisely why you should not lock a term price this week.
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Section 4
Well & Pump Efficiency
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This is the week to book the test, not run it. Harvest crews are on the ground and nobody is pulling a pump in late September. But the off-season is six weeks out, the testing slots fill from the top of the list, and at $8.48 diesel the cost of a worn plant has never been higher. A worn diesel-driven pump now costs about 1.8 times what the identical wear costs on the meter. Here is what that is worth in dollars.
| Lift |
Electric @65% |
Electric @50% |
Diesel loss |
Electric loss |
| 200 ft |
315 kWh · $110/AF |
409 kWh · $143/AF |
$59/AF · $207/ac |
$33/AF · $116/ac |
| 400 ft |
630 kWh · $220/AF |
819 kWh · $287/AF |
$118/AF · $414/ac |
$66/AF · $231/ac |
| 700 ft |
1,102 kWh · $386/AF |
1,433 kWh · $502/AF |
$207/AF · $724/ac |
$116/AF · $405/ac |
Electric at 35¢/kWh blended. Diesel at Fresno’s $8.480 pump (AAA, 9/20); off-road dyed runs about 72.6¢ lower, near $7.75. Per-acre figures assume 3.5 acre-feet on mature almonds. “Loss” is the extra cost of running a plant at 50% efficiency instead of a healthy 65%. Published guidance says 49% or less means retrofit, repair or adjustment.
What that is on a real block. A 700-foot diesel well serving 40 acres of mature almonds at 50% efficiency is burning about $29,000 a season in pure waste, money that buys you no water and no crop. The same well on the meter wastes $16,200. A 400-foot diesel plant on 40 acres is $16,500. The 1.8-to-1 ratio holds at every depth, and it is the whole argument for testing your diesel units first when you can only afford to test a few.
And here is the part that matters in SGMA country. A rising power bill does not tell you whether the pump is worn or the water simply got deeper. Those are different problems with different fixes, a bowl job versus a deeper bore or a lower pump setting, and a test is the only thing that separates them. Money spent on the wrong one is gone. A tester takes four readings: standing water level and pumping water level (the difference is your drawdown), flow rate and discharge pressure, and power input, kWh draw for electric or fuel rate for diesel. Those four give total dynamic head and therefore overall plant efficiency. Two cheap outcomes are worth knowing about: turbine pumps are often simply out of adjustment, and impeller clearance can sometimes be reset on the spot for immediate savings. A badly worn or corroded impeller cannot be adjusted back, though. That is machine work or replacement.
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Who pays for the test. The Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program (APEP) is funded through the Public Purpose Programs charge you already pay on your PG&E bill and administered by the Center for Irrigation Technology at Fresno State. 800.845.6038. The subsidy goes to the testing company: $200 for a pump not tested in the prior 47 months, $100 if not tested in 23 months, $50 for a pump in series with another. You need a non-residential PG&E electric or gas account used for irrigation, 25 nameplate horsepower or more, paying the Public Purpose charge. One subsidized test per pump per 23 months. The subsidy may not cover the whole test, so get the total price in writing before you schedule. APEP also runs a separate diesel pumping efficiency track, which is the one to ask for this year given the table above. Retrofit cash incentives exist for bowl or impeller replacement, machine work and impeller trimming, but they require a pump test before and after, no more than three years apart. A VFD or motor swap by itself does not qualify.
Also live, and worth moving on: the state’s WETA program funds no-cost irrigation evaluations and pump efficiency tests through technical-assistance providers, and many of those grants expire during 2026. That window is closing on a calendar, not on a market. If you want a free evaluation out of it, call now rather than in January.
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Section 5
News Behind the Numbers
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Global · Highest Impact
The Oman Talks Were Called Off. Crude Went Down Anyway.
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The meeting we told you was the single most important thing on last week’s calendar never happened. Oman’s foreign minister announced that the regional session set for Salalah was postponed “in the interests of consensus,” reportedly at Saudi Arabia’s request and tied to the kingdom’s frustration over continued Houthi attacks on its territory. No new date has been set, and Washington has signaled it wants any future talks with Tehran focused on the nuclear file rather than on reopening the strait. Here is why we are leading with it even though it cuts against our call: we told you last week that a collapse in Oman would push us to $8.50 and beyond. The talks collapsed. Crude finished the week essentially flat, WTI at $100.30 and Brent at $103.87, and the wholesale diesel market slowed dramatically. When a market stops responding to its own bullish news, the news has stopped being the driver. Supply and demand took the wheel back. That is worth more to your buying decision this week than any headline out of the Gulf.
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Supply · The Outage That Wasn’t
Saudi Arabia Shut Its Hormuz Bypass, Then Started Turning It Back On
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A drone struck a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pipeline on September 10, and the kingdom shut the whole 7 million barrel a day line as a precaution on September 11. That pipeline is the route that moves Saudi crude to the Red Sea without transiting the Strait of Hormuz, so losing it removes the safety valve under this entire market. It is why crude spiked into midweek. Then it came back. The U.S. Energy Secretary said publicly that the interruption would be “measured in days,” and by midweek Saudi Arabia was working to restore roughly half the line’s capacity within days. What to do with it: this is the difference between a scare and a shortage, and the market has now learned it was a scare. If restoration holds through this week, that is the bearish catalyst that turns our call from a forecast into a fact. If another station gets hit, tear up our range.
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Refining · Third Build
Distillate Built Again, Demand Fell, and Refiners Came Off the Ceiling
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EIA’s report for the week ending September 11 put distillate inventories up 1.6 million barrels to 107.9 million, the third straight build after 2.1 and 0.8 million. Refineries processed 17.3 million barrels a day at 96.8% of capacity, down 256,000 barrels a day from the week before, the first easing off the ceiling in weeks. Crude stocks slipped 0.6 million barrels to 423.4 million, 1% above the five-year average. And the demand side finally showed up: the four-week average of distillate supplied fell to 3.6 million barrels a day, down 3.3% year over year. The honest caveat: distillate stocks are still 13% below the five-year average and EIA still expects them under 100 million barrels this month. This is not comfort and we are not telling you fuel is about to be cheap. It is a direction change in the one series that has driven your diesel bill all summer, and it has now changed direction three weeks running.
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California · Record
$8.4244 Statewide, and Two Valley Metros That Quietly Rolled Over
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AAA’s Sunday read put California diesel at $8.4244, an all-time record set today, up 28.8 cents on the week and $3.26 on the year. Seven of the nine Central Valley metros we track set records with it: Bakersfield, Modesto, Stockton–Lodi, Madera–Chowchilla, Fresno, Sacramento and Visalia–Tulare. The two that did not are the story. Hanford–Corcoran topped out Friday at $8.5594 and is already 11 cents off that high. Merced topped out Saturday at $8.2790 and has given back 4 cents. Sacramento, which led the Valley last week at 42.6 cents, posted the smallest move this week at 23.5. Metros do not all turn at once, they turn from the edges in, and the edges have turned. None of this changes the structure: 48.2¢ state excise, cap-and-invest, LCFS deficits, a fuel spec nobody else makes, and roughly a third of in-state refining capacity lost in five years between the Phillips 66 Los Angeles shutdown and Valero’s exit from Benicia. For planning: budget your 2027 fuel line off a California number, not a national forecast, even after this rolls.
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Central Valley · Harvest Now
Walnuts Are Rolling, Pistachios Are Half a Crop, and Ten Days of Summer Rate Are Left
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Walnut harvest is running ahead of normal and into the north Valley, which is exactly where Stockton–Lodi and Sacramento diesel went. Almonds are on a crop USDA put near 2.70 billion pounds with hauling running into October. Pistachios are the opposite: a hot spring that pushed past roughly 85 degrees during bloom wrecked pollination across the southern San Joaquin, and industry estimates now put the crop somewhere around 600 to 800 million pounds, roughly half of last year, with many growers consolidating to a single shake. You can read that straight off the price table: Hanford–Corcoran, the pistachio corridor, is the first Valley metro to roll over. Fewer loads, less demand, lower price. What the week did to a load: a 400-mile round trip at 6 mpg burns about 67 gallons. At Fresno’s $8.480 that is $568, against $544 seven days ago and $466 a month ago, $102 a load in thirty days. And your PG&E ag summer tariff ends September 30. Ten days.
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Section 6
What To Do This Week
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✓ Action Items
| 1. Buy the week in front of you and nothing past it. Cover the loads and the irrigation sets you can actually name between now and next Monday. Do not sign a term price at $8.42 and do not prebuy October. If we are right, you would be locking the high. If we are wrong, you are out one week of cover, which is a cheap way to be wrong. |
| 2. Put a downside clause in your basis, today. Get the rack basis on every delivery ticket in writing and add language that moves your price down when the rack moves down. At $8.48 a nickel of basis on a 5,000-gallon fill is $250. More important: suppliers raise fast and lower slowly, and a written basis is the only thing that makes them lower on schedule. |
| 3. Requote flat-rate hauling one more time. A 400-mile round trip is up $102 a load in thirty days and $24 in the last seven. If you are hauling walnuts on an August quote, you are hauling at a loss. Build a fuel index into the next contract so you stop renegotiating every Monday morning. |
| 4. Run electric, and clear 5 to 8 p.m. for ten more days. The spread is now about $141 a day per 100-HP pump in favor of the meter, roughly $12,700 a month across three pumps. PG&E’s ag summer season ends September 30, peak applies daily including holidays. It is a controller setting, not a capital project, and it is worth more this week than it has been all year. |
| 5. Book your pump tests now for the off-season. Call APEP at 800.845.6038 and ask for the diesel track first. A worn diesel plant is costing about 1.8 times what the same wear costs on the meter, up to $724 an acre at 700 feet. Ask about WETA no-cost evaluations while those grants are still live, and get the full test price in writing before you schedule. |
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👀 What We’re Watching This Week
Monday, Sep. 21: Saudi East-West pipeline restoration updates, and whether the Salalah talks get a new date. Tuesday, Sep. 22: EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel survey. Our call is California diesel $8.32–$8.48. Wednesday, Sep. 23: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, go straight to the distillate line, a fourth build and the top is behind us. Also the weekly spot series with the Los Angeles CARB diesel print for the week ending September 18. That number is the whole verdict on this week’s call: under 20 cents confirms us, over 30 and we were early. Thursday, Sep. 24: EIA natural gas storage report. Friday, Sep. 25: Baker Hughes rig count. Wednesday, Sep. 30: last day of PG&E’s agricultural summer season; winter rates begin October 1. Ongoing: Hormuz transit counts, Houthi activity around Bab al-Mandeb, and whether Fresno and Madera follow Hanford and Merced down. Local: walnut hauling at full run, a light pistachio shake, and almond loads into October.
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We watch the world markets so you can stay focused on the ground under your boots. Every Monday morning, you’ll know what fuel and power did last week, and what we think they’ll do next.
Proudly American · Rooted in the American Dream
Bryan Mello
B Mello Ag Services, Central Valley, California
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B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Weekly Energy Update · Week 39 · Published Monday, September 21, 2026
Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports, field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.
(559) 816-3889 · bryan@bmelloag.com
This Weekly Energy Update is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Fuel, power and commodity prices are sourced from publicly available market and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to rapid change; figures are approximate and forward-looking statements reflect our current market view, not a guarantee. Retail averages will differ from your rack, cardlock or contract pricing. Pumping efficiency figures are engineering estimates based on standard formulas and house assumptions; your own tariff, engine curve, lift and water quality will change the result. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult a licensed commodity broker before making marketing or hedging decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly retail gasoline and diesel price survey for the week ending September 14, 2026, released September 15, 2026 (next release September 22, 2026), including the U.S., West Coast PADD 5, West Coast less California and California series; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released September 16, 2026 covering the week ending September 11, 2026, including crude, distillate, gasoline and propane inventories, refinery utilization, product supplied and the Cushing WTI, New York Harbor ULSD and Mont Belvieu propane spot prices; EIA weekly Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur CARB diesel spot price series for the week ending September 11, 2026, released September 16, 2026 (next release September 23, 2026); EIA September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook distillate inventory outlook; AAA Fuel Prices national, California statewide and California metro averages as of September 20, 2026, including recorded metro highs; DTN and CNBC reporting on NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent settlements for Friday, September 18, 2026; Trading Economics natural gas, gasoline, heating oil and propane quotations for September 18, 2026 and accompanying natural gas storage commentary; EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update and working gas in storage for the week ending September 11, 2026; CNN, NPR and Bloomberg reporting on the postponement of the Iran–Gulf meeting in Salalah, Oman; CNBC and Bloomberg reporting on the September 10 drone strike on the Saudi East-West crude pipeline, the September 11 shutdown and the restoration timeline; CARB Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit transfer data and the California cap-and-invest auction results released August 26, 2026, together with the 2026 annual reserve price notice; California Department of Tax and Fee Administration motor vehicle fuel and diesel excise tax rates effective July 1, 2026; PG&E agricultural electric rate schedules AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA and the pending 2027–2030 General Rate Case at the CPUC; California Energy Commission refinery capacity data and reporting on the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery shutdown and Valero’s Benicia refinery exit; Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program (pumpefficiency.org) eligibility, subsidy and diesel program documentation, administered by the Center for Irrigation Technology at Fresno State; CDFA Water Efficiency Technical Assistance (WETA) program materials; UC ANR pump test guidance and published overall plant efficiency benchmarks including the 49 percent repair threshold; and USDA, California Walnut Board and industry reporting on the 2026 California almond, walnut and pistachio crops and harvest progress.
Cell: (559) 816-3889
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