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Weekly Energy Update · Week 43

Fuel & Energy Report

B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA

Published Monday, October 19, 2026 • Week in Review: October 12–18 • Forecast: October 19–25

♦ CA DIESEL $8.512 (▲12¢ WK · NEW RECORD) ♦ CA REGULAR $6.178 (▼13¢ WK) ♦ WTI $101.41 FRIDAY (▲10.4% WK) ♦ BRENT $109.86, HIGHEST SINCE MAY ♦ LA WHOLESALE DIESEL ▲14¢ ♦ US DISTILLATE STOCKS 102.6M BBL ♦ HORMUZ FLOWS COLLAPSE

All Fuel Reports

📈 This Week’s Call

Diesel took out its record at $8.5123, and crude’s 10% jump says the pump has more to go. We called flat to higher, and the call held.

Last Monday we called California diesel flat to higher and put the odds of a new record near even. The record fell. AAA’s Sunday read puts diesel at $8.5123, up 12.1 cents on the week and 7.4 cents above the $8.4387 set September 22. Our range was $8.34 to $8.47, so the actual landed 4.2 cents over the top: right direction, too timid on size. EIA’s survey for the week of October 12 printed $8.091, up 0.9 cents, inside our $8.05 to $8.20 range, against a national average of $6.179, down 2.0 cents. Gasoline went the way we said, by more than we allowed. Regular finished at $6.1782, down 12.9 cents and 25.9 cents under its $6.4375 record, 4.2 cents below the bottom of our $6.22 to $6.37 range; EIA regular printed $6.104, inside our $6.10 to $6.22 range. Wholesale turned. Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur diesel spot rose 14.1 cents to $5.011 for the week ending October 9, after falling 49.5 cents over the two prints before it, while Los Angeles gasoline spot fell 55.4 cents to $3.884. The Gulf storm we flagged turned out minor, but crude did not care. Crude jumped. WTI settled Friday at $101.41, up 10.4% on the week and above our $85 to $99 range, and Brent at $109.86, up 4.9% and its highest settlement since May 19, as Iranian attacks on shipping cut Hormuz flows. Our read: a $9.56 move in crude is worth about 23 cents a gallon at the pump over the next one to two weeks, US diesel stocks are down to 102.6 million barrels, and wholesale diesel has stopped falling. We lean higher on diesel, with another record likely, and flat to lower on gasoline.

⛽

Section 1

Last Week at the Pump

AAA’s Sunday, October 18 read puts California diesel at $8.5123, up 12.1 cents on the week and a new all-time record, 7.4 cents above the September 22 mark. Regular finished at $6.1782, down 12.9 cents. Diesel is up 11.8 cents in a month and roughly $3.38 in a year; gasoline is up 6.4 cents in a month and $1.54 in a year. EIA’s survey for the week of Monday, October 12 put California on-highway diesel at $8.091, up 0.9 cents, against a national average of $6.179, down 2.0 cents; EIA regular was $6.104, down 12.3 cents. Here is the number that matters: all nine Valley metros rose, and Fresno, Stockton–Lodi and Sacramento each set a metro diesel record Sunday. The statewide price sat flat for a month, then rose 12 cents in seven days: $8.3945 a month ago, $8.3910 a week ago.

CA Diesel

$8.512

statewide · AAA 10/18

↑ 12¢ wk · new record.

LA Wholesale

$5.011

diesel spot · wk 10/9

↑ 14¢ · first rise in 3 prints.

WTI Crude

$101.41

front month · Fri 10/16

↑ 10.4% wk · Brent $109.86.

Distillate

102.6M bbl

US stocks · wk 10/9

↓ 2.5M · vs 0.1M draw prior.

Central Valley & Reference Markets, On-Highway Diesel

Market

Diesel

Note, and where regular sits

Merced

$8.303

▲ 1¢

Cheapest diesel in the Valley, and barely moved. 20.9¢ under the state average. Regular $6.156. AAA, October 18.

Bakersfield

$8.355

▲ 7¢

Second-cheapest fill, but up 7 cents. Regular is the priciest in the Valley. 15.7¢ under the state average. Regular $6.256. AAA, October 18.

Stockton–Lodi

$8.415

▲ 10¢

Up 10 cents, the biggest rise on this table, and a new metro record. North Valley hauling reference, where the walnut loads run. 9.7¢ under the state average. Regular $6.036. AAA, October 18.

Sacramento

$8.464

▲ 6¢

Up about 6 cents and a new metro record. 4.8¢ under the state average. Regular $6.138. AAA, October 18.

Modesto

$8.531

▲ 6¢

Up 6 cents, second-dearest diesel in the Valley. Regular is the cheapest gasoline in the Valley. 1.9¢ over the state average. Regular $6.035. AAA, October 18.

Hanford–Corcoran

$8.459

▲ 5¢

Up about 5 cents. 5.3¢ under the state average. Regular $6.137. AAA, October 18.

Visalia–Tulare

$8.435

▲ 6¢

Up 6 cents. 7.7¢ under the state average. Regular $6.113. AAA, October 18.

Madera–Chowchilla

$8.478

↔ flat

Flat, and no longer the dearest diesel in the Valley. 3.4¢ under the state average. Regular $6.140. AAA, October 18.

Fresno

$8.542

▲ 8¢

The dearest diesel in the Valley and a new metro record. Up 8 cents. 3.0¢ over the state average. Regular $6.142. AAA, October 18.

California avg.

$8.512

▲ 12¢

AAA, October 18, up 12.1¢ on the week and a new record, 7.4¢ above the $8.4387 set September 22. Up 11.8¢ in a month and $3.38 in a year. EIA’s week-of-10/12 survey printed $8.091, up 0.9¢. Regular $6.178, down 12.9¢ on the week, up 6.4¢ in a month and $1.54 in a year.

West Coast (PADD 5)

$7.240

▲ 1¢

EIA, week of 10/12, up 1.1¢ from $7.229. Includes California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona and others. The West Coast excluding California is $6.503, so California sits $1.59 above the rest of the region and 85.1¢ above the region as a whole.

U.S. avg.

$6.179

▼ 2¢

EIA, week of 10/12, the DOE figure your hauler’s surcharge runs off. It fell 2.0¢ while California rose 0.9¢, so the California diesel premium widened to $1.91 from $1.88. National regular $4.331.

Diesel detail: Off-road dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, roughly a 72.6¢ per gallon spread before sales tax. At Fresno’s $8.542 pump that puts dyed product near $7.82 a gallon, about $7,816 to fill a 1,000-gallon on-farm tank, roughly $84 more than last week. Price your rack and cardlock against these numbers, not the sign on the highway. Here is the test for your delivered price: Los Angeles wholesale diesel is 35.4 cents below its September 18 print of $5.365, while the statewide pump price is 7.4 cents above its old record. If your delivered price has risen by more than the wholesale and crude moves explain, ask your supplier where the difference went. Wholesale leads the pump by one to two weeks, so some of the gap is timing. Not all of it should be.

For your surcharge tables. The DOE national on-highway diesel average of $6.179 for the week of October 12 governs fuel surcharges through the middle of the month. It fell 2.0 cents while California rose 0.9, so the national index is running against you again. California now runs $1.91 a gallon above the national number, up from $1.88. The fix has not changed: index to the EIA California series or a West Coast rack, get it in writing, and stop letting a Gulf Coast number price a Central Valley load.

🔮

Section 2

The Week Ahead: Our Forecast

For the week of October 19 through 25. WTI settled Friday at $101.41, up 10.4% on the week, and Brent at $109.86, its highest settlement since May 19. Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur diesel spot for the week ending October 9 came in at $5.011, up 14.1 cents, and Los Angeles gasoline spot fell 55.4 cents to $3.884. Iranian attacks cut tanker flows through Hormuz and US diesel stocks are down to 102.6 million barrels. Retail diesel is at a record, and the crude rally says the pump is not finished.

Fuel

Expected Range

Direction

CA On-Highway Diesel
(AAA, Sun 10/25)

$8.50 – $8.72

▲ Higher. Crude is up $9.56 a barrel, about 23¢ a gallon, and retail has one to two weeks to absorb it. Los Angeles wholesale stopped falling and US distillate stocks are 102.6 million barrels. The new $8.5123 record sits near the bottom of our range, and we put the odds of another record near four in five.

CA Regular Gasoline
(AAA, Sun 10/25)

$6.02 – $6.20

▼ Drifts lower, then stalls. Los Angeles gasoline spot fell 55.4¢ and retail has not passed it all through, so the pump keeps easing early in the week. Crude’s jump is the floor under it. The $6.4375 record is 25.9¢ away and we put the odds as remote.

EIA Print, Mon 10/19

CA diesel $8.15 – $8.30
CA regular $5.97 – $6.10

↔ Diesel higher, gasoline lower. EIA has run about 30¢ under AAA on diesel the last two weeks and 16 to 20¢ under on regular, so we kept those gaps. Today’s survey is the first read on whether the Friday crude jump has reached the rack.

Central Valley Retail

Diesel 21¢ under to 3¢ over state avg.

↔ Holding its shape, all higher. All nine metros rose last week. Merced is your cheapest fill at $8.303, Fresno your dearest at $8.542, a 24-cent spread across the same valley floor, up from 19 last week.

Crude (WTI)

$94 – $108

▲ Biased higher, headline driven. Settled $101.41 Friday on Hormuz attacks and a reported missile aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port, held back by planned reserve releases. That is the November contract; the December contract settled near $99. A Hormuz reopening would knock this down fast, and a mine strike would push it through $110.

WTI–Brent Spread

$7 – $13

↔ Narrower, but check the contract. Brent $109.86 against November WTI $101.41 is an $8.45 gap, down from $12.87. Against December WTI it is closer to $10.84, and the spread widens as the November contract rolls off.

▲ Pushing Prices Up

Crude jumped 10% on Hormuz. Kpler data cited by AFP show oil flows through the Strait fell from about 20.8 million barrels on October 8 to 2.9 million on October 11. UKMTO counted 12 attacks in the week ending October 16, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claims two loaded tankers hit mines. We cannot confirm that claim.

Diesel supply is thin. US distillate stocks fell 2.5 million barrels to 102.6 million for the week ending October 9. Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Ryazan refinery October 15 and knocked a main crude unit offline. November ULSD futures settled at $4.8991 Friday, up 3.4% on the week.

Wholesale turned up. Los Angeles diesel spot rose 14.1 cents to $5.011 for the week ending October 9. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan said this week that Los Angeles wholesale diesel hit a record, up 52 cents. We could not confirm that figure independently.

▼ Holding Prices Down

Reserve releases. The IEA has planned a release of more than 20 million barrels and the US has offered up to 17 million, which capped Friday’s gains.

Gasoline wholesale collapsed. Los Angeles gasoline spot fell 55.4 cents to $3.884 for the week ending October 9, and winter-blend gasoline is in effect. Retail fell 12.9 cents and has room to fall further.

A Hormuz deal is the downside risk. Iran’s foreign minister says shipping could resume within six days of US acceptance of Iran’s seven conditions. Washington has not accepted, and Trump reportedly expects a deal only after the November 3 midterms. We are not planning around one this week.

Our read: The scorecard first. We called California diesel flat to higher and said a new record was a coin flip. AAA came in at $8.5123, a record and 4.2 cents above the top of our range. We were right on direction and too timid on size. On gasoline we called lower and got it, 4.2 cents under our range on AAA and inside it on EIA. On crude we missed high: WTI settled at $101.41 against our $85 to $99. We named three things that would prove the diesel call wrong. A Los Angeles spot print down another 15 cents did not come; it rose 14.1. Isaias damage did prove minor, and diesel rose anyway. An Iranian yes on Hormuz did not come. Here is why we lean higher: crude is up $9.56 and wholesale diesel has stopped falling, which means the cushion that held retail down for two weeks is gone. Distillate stocks fell another 2.5 million barrels, and a damaged Russian refinery adds to the global squeeze. What we’d do with that: keep buying diesel week to week, but cover the loads and irrigation sets you can name for the next 10 to 14 days rather than waiting for a drop, and do not sign a term price into a record. On gasoline, buy what you need; it is drifting lower and there is no reason to tank up early. What would prove the diesel call wrong: a Los Angeles spot print for the week ending October 16 down 15 cents or more, WTI back under $92 by Thursday, or Washington accepting Iran’s Hormuz plan. We are watching Wednesday’s distillate line and that day’s Los Angeles spot number.

⚡

Section 3

Your Other Energy Costs

Propane crossed $1.10 and is up 30% in a month. PG&E’s agricultural winter season, which began October 1, enters its third week with the same 5–8 p.m. peak window. Natural gas eased to about $3.12 on a storage build smaller than expected.

Input

Where It Is

What It Means for You

Electricity
(pump power)

Winter season, week three
~35¢/kWh blended

Still the cheapest thing on this page, and the gap to diesel widened. The peak window stays at 5–8 p.m. every day, and the seasonal energy charge is below the summer level on AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA. PG&E’s 2027–2030 General Rate Case is still pending at the CPUC. PG&E is asking for cumulative increases of roughly 23% through 2030 and forecast about a 5% bundled increase for agricultural customers in 2027; a final decision is scheduled for May 2027, per Agri-Pulse. The California Farm Bureau and Western Tree Nut Association have protested. We found no new rate change or CPUC decision this week. The 35¢ figure is a blended statewide estimate. Pull your own tariff before you budget against it.

Natural Gas
(Henry Hub)

Eased
~$3.12/MMBtu

Henry Hub sat near $3.12 per Trading Economics on October 16, down about 3% on the week, up roughly 7% on the month and 4% on the year. Storage built 67 Bcf for the week ending October 9, below the 76 Bcf analysts expected and the 90 Bcf five-year average, after 85 the week before. Inventories stand at 3.567 Tcf, 1.3% above the seasonal norm. Lower 48 output averaged 110.8 Bcf/d in October, under the 113.3 record of August and September, and milder weather through October 29 is capping gains. Gas is still far and away your cheapest thermal Btu against $8.51 diesel. We did not source a PG&E citygate or SoCal border price this week.

Propane

Rising
~$1.10/gal Mont Belvieu

Mont Belvieu printed about $1.10 on October 16 per Trading Economics, up from roughly $1.01 a week ago, up 30% on the month and 72% on the year. EIA’s weekly spot average for the week ending October 9 was 95.7 cents, up from 90.2. If you have not booked frost-protection, dryer and heater gallons, this is no longer a market to wait in. We would finish those gallons before November rather than after.

LCFS &
Cap-and-Invest

Allowances $32.48
LCFS: no fresh print

California cap-and-invest allowances cleared at $32.48/ton at the August auction, up $3.67 from the prior quarter, and the fifth consecutive sold-out auction. The next auction is in November. We could not confirm a current LCFS credit price this week, so we are not printing one. These costs do not fall when crude falls. They are the permanent floor under the California premium.

Off-Road /
Dyed Diesel

Tracking on-highway
~73¢ tax spread

Dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, about 72.6¢ a gallon before sales tax. That spread is fixed, so your bulk delivered price tracks on-highway in both directions. Los Angeles diesel spot printed $5.011 for the week ending October 9, up 14.1¢ from $4.870. The next weekly print lands Wednesday, October 21 and covers the week ending October 16, the verdict on whether wholesale keeps rising.

Diesel pumping versus electric, at this week’s prices. The gap widened. A diesel irrigation engine burns roughly 0.055 gallons per horsepower-hour at load. A 100-HP unit running eight hours is about 44 gallons a day, at Fresno’s $8.542 that is $376 a day, up from $372 last week. The same duty on an electric motor at 83 kW is 664 kWh; at 35 cents a kilowatt-hour that is $232. That is $143 a day, per pump, for running the wrong one, up from $140. Over a 30-day month on three pumps it is now about $12,900. Those figures use a 35-cent blended rate and standard engine fuel maps; pull your own tariff and your own engine curve before you commit, because both vary by operation.

What this week cost a 10,000-gallon harvest program. Statewide diesel rose 12.1 cents in seven days. On 10,000 gallons that is about $1,210 more, with no change in what you actually did. Step back to thirty days and statewide diesel is up 11.8 cents a gallon, or $1,180 more to run the same program, which means the whole month’s rise landed in the last seven days. Wholesale fell, then turned, and your bill jumped.

💧

Section 4

Well & Pump Efficiency

Diesel is at a record, and harvest is winding down. That is the week to find out which pumps are bleeding you. The well is about to go quiet, and bowl work, impeller trimming and machine work cost the least in the off-season when nobody is waiting on water. At $8.54 diesel the cost of a worn plant has never been higher. A worn diesel-driven pump costs about 1.8 times what the identical wear costs on the meter. Here is what that is worth in dollars.

Lift

Electric @65%

Electric @50%

Diesel loss

Electric loss

200 ft

315 kWh · $110/AF

409 kWh · $143/AF

$60/AF · $208/ac

$33/AF · $116/ac

400 ft

630 kWh · $220/AF

819 kWh · $287/AF

$119/AF · $417/ac

$66/AF · $231/ac

700 ft

1,102 kWh · $386/AF

1,433 kWh · $502/AF

$208/AF · $729/ac

$116/AF · $405/ac

Electric at 35¢/kWh blended. Diesel at Fresno’s $8.542 pump (AAA, 10/18); off-road dyed runs about 72.6¢ lower, near $7.82. Per-acre figures assume 3.5 acre-feet on mature almonds. “Loss” is the extra cost of running a plant at 50% efficiency instead of a healthy 65%. Published guidance says 49% or less means retrofit, repair or adjustment.

What that is on a real block. A 700-foot diesel well serving 40 acres of mature almonds at 50% efficiency is burning about $29,200 a season in pure waste, money that buys you no water and no crop. The same well on the meter wastes $16,200. A 400-foot diesel plant on 40 acres is $16,700. The 1.8-to-1 ratio holds at every depth, and it is the whole argument for testing your diesel units first when you can only afford to test a few.

And here is the part that matters in SGMA country. A rising power bill does not tell you whether the pump is worn or the water simply got deeper. Those are different problems with different fixes, a bowl job versus a deeper bore or a lower pump setting, and a test is the only thing that separates them. Money spent on the wrong one is gone. A tester takes four readings: standing water level and pumping water level (the difference is your drawdown), flow rate and discharge pressure, and power input, kWh draw for electric or fuel rate for diesel. Those four give total dynamic head and therefore overall plant efficiency. Two cheap outcomes are worth knowing about: turbine pumps are often simply out of adjustment, and impeller clearance can sometimes be reset on the spot for immediate savings. A badly worn or corroded impeller cannot be adjusted back, though. That is machine work or replacement.

Who pays for the test. The Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program (APEP) is funded through the Public Purpose Programs charge you already pay on your PG&E bill and administered by the Center for Irrigation Technology at Fresno State. 800.845.6038. The subsidy goes to the testing company: $200 for a pump not tested in the prior 47 months, $100 if not tested in 23 months, $50 for a pump in series with another. You need a non-residential PG&E electric or gas account used for irrigation, 25 nameplate horsepower or more, paying the Public Purpose charge. One subsidized test per pump per 23 months. The subsidy may not cover the whole test, so get the total price in writing before you schedule. APEP also runs a separate diesel pumping efficiency track, which is the one to ask for at these prices. Retrofit cash incentives exist for bowl or impeller replacement, machine work and impeller trimming, but they require a pump test before and after, no more than three years apart. A VFD or motor swap by itself does not qualify.

Also live, and worth moving on: the state’s WETA program funds no-cost irrigation evaluations and pump efficiency tests through technical-assistance providers, and many of those grants expire during 2026. With about ten weeks left in the year, that window is closing on a calendar, not on a market. If you want a free evaluation out of it, call now rather than in January.

📰

Section 5

News Behind the Numbers

Global · Highest Impact

Crude Jumped 10% as Hormuz Flows Collapsed, and Brent Hit Its Highest Settlement Since May

WTI settled Friday at $101.41, up $9.56 or 10.4% on the week, and Brent at $109.86, up 4.9% and its highest settlement since May 19. Kpler data cited by AFP show oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell from about 20.8 million barrels on October 8 to 2.9 million on October 11, and UKMTO counted 23 attacks since the start of October. A missile aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu was reportedly intercepted. The IEA has planned a release of more than 20 million barrels and the US has offered up to 17 million, which capped the gains. What it means for your fuel bill: a $10 move in a barrel of crude is worth about 24 cents a gallon, so this week’s $9.56 gain is roughly 23 cents of diesel pressure that retail has not fully shown yet, and it typically arrives in one to two weeks. Iran says shipping could resume within six days if Washington accepts its seven conditions. Washington has not, and Trump reportedly expects a deal only after the November 3 midterms.

Refining · Stocks

Diesel Stocks Fell Again and a Russian Refinery Went Down

EIA’s weekly table for the week ending October 9 put US distillate inventories at 102.6 million barrels, down 2.5 million from 105.1 million, a far bigger draw than the 0.1 million the week before. Commercial crude stocks fell 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million, a larger draw than expected. Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Ryazan refinery early October 15 and shut one of its main crude units; the plant handles roughly 340,000 barrels a day. November ULSD futures settled at $4.8991 on Friday, up 3.4% on the week. Why it matters on the ground: diesel is the tight product in the world right now, and California competes for the same Pacific barrels. We told you the level of stocks was the story, and this week the level got lower.

California · Wholesale

Los Angeles Diesel Turned Up and Gasoline Spot Collapsed

EIA’s weekly spot series for the week ending October 9 put Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur diesel at $5.011, up 14.1 cents after two straight declines totaling 49.5 cents, and Los Angeles gasoline at $3.884, down 55.4 cents. In a post cited by the Daily Caller on October 14, GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan said Los Angeles wholesale diesel set a record, up 52 cents, and San Francisco was up 21 cents. We could not confirm that figure, so treat it as a signal and not a print. California Trucking Association president Tim Pollock told Trucking Dive that fuel surcharges cover only about 70% to 75% of a carrier’s costs. For you: the cushion that held retail down for two weeks is gone, and haulers are eating cost they will try to pass to you. Read your surcharge language before the invoice does.

Policy · Relief Talk

Federal Dyed-Diesel Move Does Little in California, and a State Tax Suspension Is Only a Proposal

Trucking Dive reports the Trump administration recently ordered dyed diesel allowed on the road, with fuel taxes deferred for the rest of the year. The California Farm Bureau notes California restricts tax-free fuel on public roads, so it does little here, and the Farm Bureau has floated suspending the state diesel tax. That is a proposal, not law. Truckers have also asked Governor Newsom for help. What it means for your costs: nothing changes at the rack this week. Do not put dyed fuel in a road vehicle in California on the strength of a federal headline; the state rules have not moved and the penalties are real. Budget off the price on the sign.

✅

Section 6

What To Do This Week

✓ Action Items

1. Keep buying diesel week to week, and cover the next 10 to 14 days. Crude is up $9.56 a barrel, wholesale has stopped falling and the pump is at a record. Cover the loads and irrigation sets you can name now, and do not sign a term price into a record.

2. Get the rack basis in writing. Wholesale and retail are now moving the same direction, which is when a cost-plus contract either works for you or does not. Ask for the rack reference on every delivery ticket, with language that moves your price down when the rack moves down.

3. Buy gasoline as you need it. Regular fell 12.9 cents and Los Angeles gasoline spot fell 55.4 cents, so the pump should keep easing early in the week. Do not tank up early; crude’s jump limits how far it goes.

4. Book propane now. Mont Belvieu is about $1.10, up 30% on the month and 72% on the year. Finish your frost-protection, dryer and heater gallons before November.

5. Index your surcharges to California. The DOE national average fell 2.0 cents while California rose 0.9, and the California premium widened to $1.91. Put the EIA California series or a West Coast rack in writing on every hauling contract.

6. Test your diesel pumps first. A worn diesel plant wastes about 1.8 times what the same wear costs on the meter, up to $729 an acre at 700 feet. Call APEP at 800.845.6038 and get the total test price in writing.

👀 What We’re Watching This Week

Monday, Oct. 19: EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel survey. Our call is California diesel $8.15–$8.30 and regular $5.97–$6.10. Watch the crude open for the first weekend reaction on Hormuz.

Tuesday, Oct. 20: API stocks report at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Wednesday, Oct. 21: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Go straight to the distillate line. Also the EIA weekly spot price release, with the Los Angeles diesel print for the week ending October 16: that number is the verdict on whether wholesale keeps rising.

Thursday, Oct. 22: EIA natural gas storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Sunday, Oct. 25: AAA’s weekly read, and whether California diesel takes out $8.5123 again.

Ongoing: Strait of Hormuz transit and mine reports, any formal US response to Iran’s seven conditions, the pace of the IEA and US reserve releases, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and Saudi infrastructure threats.

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B Mello Ag Services, Central Valley, California

B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA

Weekly Energy Update · Week 43 · Published Monday, October 19, 2026

Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports, field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.

(559) 816-3889 · bryan@bmelloag.com

This Weekly Energy Update is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Fuel, power and commodity prices are sourced from publicly available market and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to rapid change; figures are approximate and forward-looking statements reflect our current market view, not a guarantee. Retail averages will differ from your rack, cardlock or contract pricing. Pumping efficiency figures are engineering estimates based on standard formulas and house assumptions; your own tariff, engine curve, lift and water quality will change the result. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult a licensed commodity broker before making marketing or hedging decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.

Data sources: AAA Fuel Prices California statewide and metro averages as of October 18, 2026, including recorded highs; U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly retail gasoline and diesel price survey for the week of October 12, 2026 (next release Monday, October 19, 2026), including the U.S., West Coast PADD 5, West Coast less California and California series; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tables for the week ending October 9, 2026 (next release Wednesday, October 21, 2026); EIA weekly spot price series for the week ending October 9, 2026 (next release October 21, 2026), including Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur diesel, Los Angeles gasoline and Mont Belvieu propane; EnergyNow.com for NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent settlements and weekly changes for Friday, October 16, 2026; FinanceFeeds reporting of October 18, 2026 on Hormuz and oil prices; Energy News Beat reporting of October 18, 2026 on Hormuz shipping data, the Ryazan refinery and diesel futures; Daily Caller reporting of October 14, 2026 citing GasBuddy; Trucking Dive reporting of October 15, 2026 on California diesel prices and relief proposals; Trading Economics natural gas and propane quotations as of October 16, 2026 and accompanying storage commentary; Carbon Herald and CARB reporting on the August 2026 cap-and-invest auction; California Department of Tax and Fee Administration motor vehicle fuel and diesel excise tax rates; PG&E agricultural electric rate schedules AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA, the summer/winter season tariff and the pending 2027–2030 General Rate Case at the CPUC, as reported by Agri-Pulse; Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program eligibility and subsidy terms at pumpefficiency.org (Center for Irrigation Technology, Fresno State); University of Arkansas Extension and Mitchell Lewis & Staver on pumping plant efficiency benchmarks and the 49% repair threshold; California Department of Food and Agriculture WETA program.

Cell: (559) 816-3889

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