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Central Valley Agricultural Economic Intelligence
October 2026 Economic Update
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published October 15, 2026 • Milk & Dairy • Futures • Fuel • Weather • Water • Biochar & Fall Seed Treatment
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♦ CA DIESEL: $8.39/GAL, RECORD $8.44 SEP 22 ♦ DEC CORN: $4.82¾, DOWN 50¢ ♦ SEP CLASS III: $16.04 ♦ SEP CLASS IV: $18.94 ♦ NONFAT DRY MILK: $2.27 ♦ CHEESE BLOCKS: $1.385 ♦ EL NIÑO: 83% CHANCE OF HISTORIC EVENT ♦ SWP 2027 INITIAL: DEC 1 ♦ EQIP COST-SHARE CUTOFF: NOV 6
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Section 1
Milk Prices & Dairy Economic Outlook
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The spread we warned about last month opened right back up. September came in with Class III down 60¢ to $16.04 and Class IV up $1.58 to $18.94, a $2.90 gap, up from 72¢ in August. The spot market says it is not done: nonfat dry milk closed $2.2675 on October 9 while cheese blocks sat at $1.385, after touching $1.27 on September 30, the lowest since May 2020. The good news is on the feed side. The October 9 WASDE raised the corn crop and December corn has given back about 50¢ since our last issue.
| Class I Base |
| $18.88 |
| per cwt · October advance |
| ↑ Up $1.84 from September’s $17.04 (USDA AMS, Sep 23). Class IV skim set the mover. Zone differentials add on top. |
| Class III Milk |
| $16.04 |
| per cwt · September announced |
| ↓ Down $0.60 from August (USDA AMS, Sep 30). Oct WASDE trimmed 2026 to $15.80. October Class III futures settled $15.02 on Oct 8. |
| Class IV Milk |
| $18.94 |
| per cwt · September announced |
| ↑ Up $1.58 on the powder rally. Oct WASDE raised 2026 to $18.90 and 2027 by $1.35 to $18.90. |
| Class III–IV Spread |
| $2.90 |
| per cwt · September gap |
| Wide again. Up from 72¢ in August, with Class IV on top for an eighth straight month. Depooling pressure is back. Watch your PPD. |
| Component |
Price |
Market Note |
| Cheddar Cheese |
$1.3850/lb |
CME 40# blocks, close Oct 9, down 3.5¢ from our last issue (barrels $1.4525). Blocks hit $1.27 on Sep 30, the lowest since May 2020. Still the weak link in your check. The Oct WASDE lowered cheese forecasts for 2026 and 2027. |
| Butter |
$1.2750/lb |
CME close Oct 9, down 9.5¢ from $1.37 a month ago. September averaged $1.4462. WASDE lowered butter forecasts again. |
| Nonfat Dry Milk |
$2.2675/lb |
CME close Oct 9, up 27¼¢ from $1.995. Powder broke through $2.00 and kept going. WASDE raised NDM forecasts. This is what is carrying Class IV. |
| Dry Whey |
$0.8600/lb |
CME close Oct 9, up 10¢ from $0.76, at a four-and-a-half-year high. Quietly the best support Class III has right now. |
| Butterfat / Protein |
$1.4762 / $2.6619 |
September component values, per lb. Butterfat down 3.4¢ and protein down 16.8¢ from August. Other solids $0.4147, nonfat solids $1.5343. |
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📈 Dairy Economic Outlook
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USDA blinked on milk supply. After raising production two months running, the October 9 WASDE cut 2026 output 300 million lbs to 236.9 billion lbs and 2027 to 238.4 billion. The 2026 all-milk price held at $19.90/cwt; Class III was trimmed 40¢ to $15.80 and Class IV raised 35¢ to $18.90.
2027 just got better, and different. USDA raised 2027 all-milk 65¢ to $20.45, but last month’s flip is gone: Class IV at $18.90 now tops Class III at $16.90 next year too. Futures agree, with November Class IV at $20.90 against Class III at $16.14 (Oct 8 settles).
California: Dairy Market News reports milk beginning to tighten here, with spot milk requests emerging and hauling costs still high.
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🌾 Feed Relief & The Depooling Watch
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Corn gave some back. December corn at $4.82¾ is down roughly 50¢ from our September issue after USDA raised the yield to 181.2 bu/ac. If you buy corn forward, this is a better window than you had a month ago. Meal is not cooperating: December soybean meal settled $368.70/ton on Oct 12.
Hay is firm. Central San Joaquin Valley Premium/Supreme alfalfa traded $270/ton FOB and $353 delivered to the dairy (USDA AMS, week ending Oct 9), with demand described as good.
The spread is the story. At $2.90, handlers have an incentive to pull Class IV milk off the pool, and that moves your blend price and PPD against you. Read the PPD line, not the announced class price.
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Section 2
Grain & Commodity Futures
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Settlements as of October 13, 2026. The October 9 WASDE was the turn. USDA raised the corn yield to 181.2 bu/acre from 178.5, put the crop at 16.03 billion bu and lifted ending stocks to 1.849 billion, and December corn went limit-down that day. Corn is now $4.82¾, near an eight-week closing low. Wheat followed it down, with Kansas City hard red winter off nearly 90¢ from our last issue. Feed buyers finally get a break; anyone holding unpriced grain does not.
| Commodity |
Near-Month |
vs. Sep Issue |
Market Note |
| 🌾 Corn (CBOT) |
$4.82¾/bu
Dec ’26 |
▼ −50½¢ |
↓ Feed relief. Oct WASDE yield 181.2 bu/ac, production 16.034 billion bu, ending stocks up to 1.849 billion, season-average price cut to $4.70. Harvest is running behind (23% vs. 27% average on Oct 4). Dairies: this is a better window to book Q1 feed than September was. |
| 🌾 Wheat (CBOT SRW) |
$6.69¼/bu
Dec ’26 |
▼ −52¾¢ |
↓ Lower. U.S. production nudged to 1.534 billion bu, exports cut 25 million to 750 million, ending stocks up to 740 million. Farm price trimmed to $6.30. |
| 🌾 Wheat (HRW/KC) |
$7.12¼/bu
Dec ’26 |
▼ −~88¢ |
↓ Biggest drop on the board. The premium to Chicago has narrowed to about 43¢. Good news if you are buying seed for a fall planting; seed wheat should be cheaper than it looked a month ago. |
| 🌎 Soybeans (CBOT) |
$12.83¾/bu
Nov ’26 |
▼ −20½¢ |
→ Softer. Record yield of 53.1 bu/ac, production 4.562 billion bu, ending stocks 315 million, farm price unchanged at $12.00. December meal at $368.70/ton (Oct 12) is the number for your ration and has not eased with corn. |
| 🌿 Cotton (ICE) |
81.21¢/lb
Dec ’26, Oct 6 close |
▼ −4.85¢ |
↓ Off the highs. Traded near 80.8¢ on Oct 13. U.S. harvest is running ahead at 31% vs. 18% average. Still a far better price than a year ago for Kern and Kings acres; finish defoliation and get it to the gin clean. |
| 🥛 Class III / IV Milk |
$16.14 / $20.90
Nov ’26, Oct 8 settle |
Oct III $15.02
was $15.93 |
↔ Split board. Class III futures are pricing a soft fall; Class IV is pricing powder above $2. December settled $16.57 and $20.50. See Section 1. |
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Market Advisory: Energy is still the wild card. Brent settled $105.69 and WTI $94.14 on October 13. Persian Gulf flows have climbed back toward prewar levels even though the Strait of Hormuz has not formally reopened, and Saudi Arabia has restored its East-West pipeline, but attacks on tankers have risen to roughly one a day since early October. That keeps freight, fertilizer, and ethanol margins expensive even with corn lower. Prices shown are indicative settlements as of October 6–13 and move daily. Confirm current bids with your handler or broker before making any merchandising decision.
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Section 3
Fuel Prices & Outlook
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Diesel has backed off its peak, but not by much. AAA had California diesel at $8.39/gal on October 13, after setting a new all-time record of $8.44 on September 22, above the $8.14 we reported last month. Fresno is at $8.44 and Visalia-Tulare at $8.40. Gasoline is the one moving the wrong way now: California regular is $6.28, up 29¢ in a month, and Fresno set an all-time gasoline record of $6.44 on October 2. Two pieces of relief are in play, a G7 strategic reserve release weighted toward diesel and a federal diesel excise deferral, but neither has shown up at the pump in a big way yet.
| ⚠ NEAR RECORD |
| Diesel (Clear #2) |
| $8.39 |
| per gallon · CA average (AAA), Oct 13 |
| ↑ Up about 26¢ from a month ago and 5¢ under the $8.44 record set Sep 22. EIA’s weekly series shows $8.08 for the week of Oct 5, three straight weekly declines from its $8.25 peak. |
| Red Diesel (Ag Dyed) |
| Est. $7.20–$7.50 |
| per gallon · estimated Central Valley |
| ↑ Still in record territory. No published California dyed price exists; this applies the usual ~90¢ road-tax spread to clear. Confirm with your supplier. |
| Gasoline (Regular) |
| $6.28 |
| per gallon · CA average (AAA), Oct 13 |
| ↑ Up 29¢ in a month and about 38¢ above the $5.90 we reported in September. Within 16¢ of the 2022 state record. Fresno set a new local record Oct 2. |
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⚠ What’s Driving This
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The supply picture has improved. The diesel picture has not caught up yet:
• Gulf oil is moving again. Flows are near prewar levels, with about 40% routed around the Strait of Hormuz, which still has not formally reopened.
• Tanker attacks are rising, roughly one a day since Oct 2, and Houthi strikes on Riyadh have widened the conflict.
• Distillate is the tight spot. East Coast stocks ran 32% below the five-year average in September.
• Relief measures: the G7 agreed Oct 2 to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel over four months, on top of a 40-million-barrel U.S. SPR exchange.
• California on top of that: the Valero Benicia and Phillips 66 Los Angeles closures took out about 17% of state refining capacity. The state allowed winter-blend gasoline early on Sep 28.
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📊 30-Day Fuel Price Outlook
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EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook has U.S. diesel averaging $5.81 in Q4 and $4.92 in Q1 2027, with Brent at $104.69 this quarter and easing toward $84 for 2027. California runs well above the national number. Plan on $8.10–$8.50/gal clear and roughly $7.20–$7.60 red through mid-November.
On the federal excise deferral: an Oct 5 executive order defers the 24.4¢ federal diesel tax through Dec 31 and relaxes dyed-fuel enforcement on highways. Ask your supplier how it is being passed through before you change anything about how you fuel.
Action: If your supplier will write a volume contract near current levels for winter needs, take a hard look. The 2027 crude curve is still pricing $84–$90, not a return to pre-war prices.
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Crude Oil Context. Brent settled $105.69/barrel and WTI $94.14 on October 13, Brent roughly flat and WTI about $8 lower than in our September issue. Crude is still up more than 70% this year. Saudi Aramco says about 3 billion barrels of supply has been lost since February and inventories may take up to two years to rebuild, which is why diesel is slow to come down even as flows recover. Every $10/barrel move is worth about 24¢/gal at the pump.
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Section 4
Weather Outlook & Agricultural Relevance
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One more warm push before fall settles in. NWS Hanford has Fresno at 80°F today, climbing to the around 90 Saturday, then cooling to the low 70s by Tuesday, October 20, when forecasters see a better chance of showers. No rain so far this month on the Valley floor. Behind it, El Niño keeps building: the Climate Prediction Center’s October 8 update puts the odds of a historic-strength event at 83% for October–December, up from 75% last month, with the Niño-3.4 region running +2.1°C.
| High Temp |
| 72–90°F |
| Fresno · Oct 14–20 (NWS) |
| Warm spike, then cooler. Around 90 Saturday, low 70s by Tuesday. Good drying weather for walnuts and trays this week. |
| Low Temp |
| 49–60°F |
| Hanford / Fresno lows |
| Cool nights already, with Hanford near 49°F. No frost in the forecast; first risk normally arrives in November. |
| El Niño Odds |
| 83% |
| chance of historic strength, Oct–Dec |
| Up from 75% last month (CPC, Oct 8). Strong-to-very-strong El Niño likely through January–March. |
| Precipitation |
| 0.00 in |
| Valley floor so far in October |
| Dry through the weekend. Shower chances rise around Oct 20; CPC’s 6–10 day outlook leans wet for California. |
| Crop / Sector |
October Weather Relevance & Action Items |
| 🍐 Almonds / Pistachios |
Harvest is wrapping up; post-harvest is where the 2027 crop is set. Keep post-harvest irrigation on until leaf drop. The September position report showed shipments up 17.9% and exports up 28%, but uncommitted inventory is 710 million lbs, up 28.5%, which caps price upside. Pistachios are finishing a short crop. Get soil amendments worked in before the rain; see Section 6. |
| 🪓 Walnuts |
Harvest is in full swing. USDA forecasts 680,000 tons, down 16%, and early yields are running light. Use this week’s warm, dry stretch to shake and get nuts to the huller before the Oct 20 cool-down. Move straight to post-harvest irrigation once the last block is off. |
| 🍇 Grapes |
Get raisin trays rolled and picked up now. The first shower chances arrive around October 20, and an El Niño fall can turn quickly. Wine grape harvest is finishing; post-harvest irrigation and gypsum on low-infiltration vineyard soils go on the list next. |
| 🌾 Wheat / Small Grains / Winter Forage |
Planting window opens. Pre-irrigate or plant into moisture as ground clears. Seed costs eased with KC wheat down nearly 90¢. A seed treatment at planting is the cheapest insect protection you will buy all season; see Section 6. For dairies, oats and triticale for winter forage go in now. |
| 🌽 Corn / Corn Silage |
Silage is in the pit; grain corn is coming off. Get a nitrate and soil sample on silage ground before the double-crop goes in. Feed buyers: December corn under $4.85 is a better entry than September offered. Chop residue and work ground while it is dry. |
| 🌿 Cotton / Field Crops |
Defoliation and picking in Kern and Kings fields. Pick promptly once bolls are open. A wet spell on open cotton costs grade, and December cotton near 81¢ still makes clean lint worth protecting. Plan stalk shredding and plow-down as soon as picking is done. |
| 🍊 Citrus |
Early navel maturity testing and harvest are beginning. Check wind machines and frost-protection plans now, not in December. Continue Asian Citrus Psyllid monitoring and report any suspicious yellowing to CDFA. |
30-Day Outlook (Oct 15 – Nov 15): CPC’s October outlook favored above-normal temperatures over California, and the next week fits that before a cooler turn around October 20. The November outlook is due from CPC October 15 and was not out at press time. ET demand is falling fast; recalibrate to CIMIS rather than running summer sets. At $8.39 diesel, every unneeded pump hour hurts.
Looking further out: El Niño is now at +2.1°C and CPC gives a historic-strength event an 83% chance this fall. Its September seasonal discussion showed a wet signal increasing across California into November–January and 50–60% odds of above-normal precipitation near the coast for December–February. El Niño is less reliable for the central state than for Southern California, but the planning rule from last month stands: assume the ground closes in November. Anything that has to go down dry has about three weeks.
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Section 5
Water Situation & District Updates
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Water Year 2027 began October 1. South-of-Delta CVP irrigation contractors closed 2026 at 28%, and the State Water Project’s final 2026 allocation was 45% (we reported about 50% last month; 45% is DWR’s last official figure). Storage is drawing down normally for fall. DWR says statewide major reservoirs sit at 107% of average, and San Luis is refilling. Pine Flat, the Kings River supply, is still the weak spot at about 17% of capacity. The first real allocation number for 2027 is DWR’s initial SWP figure on December 1.
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✅ Where Allocations Stand
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CVP WY2026 final: south-of-Delta ag 28%, south-of-Delta M&I 78%, Friant Class 1 100% / Class 2 0%, Sacramento River Settlement 100%, Cross Valley 15%.
SWP 2026 final: 45% of Table A, set May 15.
WY2027: DWR announces the initial SWP allocation December 1. Reclamation’s initial CVP allocation normally comes in late February. Both are set on storage and early-season hydrology, so a wet November helps December’s number but a strong forecast alone does not.
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💧 Storage, and the Kings River Problem
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Northern CVP storage was 114% of the 15-year average in Westlands’ September notice. San Luis has climbed to about 72% of capacity, up from 66%, as the Delta pumps refill it.
Pine Flat at roughly 17% of capacity is barely changed from September’s 16%. For Kings and Fresno county growers, that low starting point still points to a conservative early entitlement in 2027 unless November and December come in wet.
Millerton and Oroville are both near 44%, a normal fall drawdown.
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| Reservoir |
Storage, Oct 12 |
% of Capacity |
vs. Sep Issue |
| Shasta |
2.39 MAF |
52.5% |
▼ from 56% |
| Oroville |
1.54 MAF |
43.5% |
▼ from 54%
DWR: 85% of avg, Oct 1 |
| San Luis |
1.48 MAF |
~72% |
▲ from 66%, refilling |
| Trinity |
1.66 MAF |
~68% |
▼ from 71% |
| New Melones |
1.52 MAF |
~63% |
▼ from 66% |
| Folsom |
408 TAF |
41.8% |
▼ from 46% |
| Millerton (Friant) |
231 TAF |
~44% |
→ normal fall draw |
| Pine Flat (Kings River) |
171 TAF |
~17% |
→ from 16% |
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📅 Water Release Dates & Run Times
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Westlands fall lateral shutdowns: PV8 Oct 12–17, 27R Oct 19–24, 12R Oct 26–31, 13L Nov 2–8, 1R Nov 3–5, 13R and 31L Nov 16–22. Coalinga Canal pumping plant cold wash Oct 12–15. Supplemental water requests (73,000 AF) are expected to be filled by December.
Friant-Kern Canal: Reclamation broke ground Oct 1 on Phase 1 of the pump station replacement near Porterville (5 of 13 stations, running into 2027). No outage dates published yet; check with your Friant district before scheduling winter deliveries.
Fresno Irrigation District: 2026 season closed August 15.
Kings River / Tulare Lake Basin: no end-of-season or 2027 dates published. Contact Kings River Water Association, Consolidated ID, or Alta ID for entitlement and recharge plans.
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⚡ Key Water Management Priorities
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Fall is about setting up 2027 and getting ready for a wet winter:
• SGMA, Tulare Lake subbasin: Kings County Superior Court heard the Farm Bureau’s case against the State Water Board Oct 6–7 and has it under submission. Outside Tri-County WA and Southwest Kings GSA, probation fees of $300 per well plus $20/AF pumped stand, with invoices expected by year end.
• Westlands dates: benefit assessment due Nov 19; Prop 218 hearing Dec 15. Up to about 130,000 AF can be rescheduled into 2027-28.
• Post-harvest irrigation: keep it on until leaf drop.
• Clear ditches, culverts and tailwater ponds now. DWR has staged 4.4 million sandbags statewide for El Niño.
• Hold more of what you pump. Every inch of water the root zone holds is water you do not pump again. Biochar on light ground is one way to get there; see Section 6.
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Water Advisory: WY2026 closed at 28% south-of-Delta and 45% on the SWP. WY2027 opens with healthy northern carryover and a historic El Niño likely, but Pine Flat on the Kings is near 17% and no 2027 allocation exists yet. DWR’s December 1 SWP number will be the first real signal. Storage figures here are October 12 readings and percent-of-capacity calculations; allocation percentages and delivery schedules change, so confirm your district’s current status and run times directly with them.
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Section 6
Product Spotlight
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Harvest is clearing ground, the first shower chances arrive around October 20, and CPC gives this El Niño an 83% chance of reaching historic strength. That makes the next few weeks the window to build water-holding capacity into the ground before winter. We are leading with Biochar, a forest-biomass wood carbon that holds water and nutrients in the root zone for years and blends straight into your compost or manure, paired with JABB Beauveria bassiana as a 1-ounce-per-acre seed treatment for the wheat, oats and forage going in the ground right now. Both start with the same first step: a soil test.
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Two Deadlines: The First Storm, and November 6
🌱 Store Water, Build Carbon, and Let Cost-Share Help Pay
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Every inch of water your soil holds is water you do not pump again. With diesel near $8.40 and the Tulare Lake and Tule subbasins paying SGMA probation fees by the acre-foot, water-holding capacity is worth more this year than it has ever been. Biochar adds that capacity, and the research is clearest on the light, quick-draining ground found across much of the Valley.
Cost-share can carry a real share of the bill. USDA NRCS EQIP Practice 336, Soil Carbon Amendment, pays for biochar and biochar-compost blends in California. California NRCS is taking FY2027 EQIP applications through November 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM; applications that come in later wait for the next funding round. CDFA’s Healthy Soils Program has also added biochar as a practice, at up to $250 per ton.
| This week |
Call your USDA Service Center (Hanford serves Kings County) and ask for EQIP Practice 336. Make sure your FSA eligibility paperwork is current. |
| Soil test |
Required by NRCS before application, and it tells us whether your ground is a good fit and what rate to run. |
| Blend on the farm |
We blend biochar into your compost or dairy manure at the ratio your plan calls for, and can charge it with a liquid biological, right before spreading. One pass instead of two. |
| Before the rain |
Spread on dry ground on a calm day and work it into the top few inches, or band it in orchard and vineyard rows. Left on the surface, it can blow or wash away. |
Tell us your crops, your soil type, and whether you have compost or manure on hand, and we will quote the blend and help with the program paperwork. We supply the biochar lab analysis and delivery records NRCS and Healthy Soils ask for.
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Email opens a message to bryan@bmelloag.com with the subject already filled in. Just add your ranch, crops and soil type.
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🌰 2026 Nut Harvest Watch
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Almonds: strong shipping, heavy inventory. The September position report (released Oct 13) showed shipments of 232.5 million lbs, up 17.9%, with exports up 28% to 189.2 million lbs and domestic shipments down 12.4%. Receipts to date are 1.216 billion lbs, up 22.5%. The number to watch is uncommitted inventory at 710 million lbs, up 28.5%, while commitments slipped 3.6%. The industry is working off a 2.7 billion lb estimate. That much unsold product keeps a lid on price even with exports running hot.
Walnuts are the opposite story: USDA forecasts 680,000 tons, down 16% from 809,000, after nut set fell 18%, and the industry entered the season short on inventory. Pistachios are finishing a light off-year crop after spring heat hurt pollination in the southern Valley.
What that means for you: almond price will be decided by how fast that inventory moves, not by what you do this fall, so put your effort where you control the outcome: post-harvest irrigation, soil building, and a clean start to the 2027 crop.
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Forest-Biomass Wood Biochar · CDFA Organic Input
Biochar
Water, Carbon & Soil Life
Screened to ¼ inch, built to blend with compost and manure
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★ Cost-Share Eligible
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H:Corg Ratio
0.20
Below 0.4 = long-lasting carbon
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Salt (ECe)
0.22
No added salt load
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pH / Liming
8.13 / 5.7%
Will not acidify soil
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Bulk Weight
~330 lb/yd³
About 6 yd per ton
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A stable, porous wood carbon that works like thousands of tiny storage rooms in your soil. Those pores hold water, nutrients and soil microbes in the root zone, and unlike compost, which breaks down in a season or two, the biochar itself lasts for decades. It is not a fertilizer; it works best blended with compost or manure so it has nutrients to hold.
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| ✓ Holds more water, a large review found about +45% plant-available water in sandy soils, +21% in loams, +14% in clays |
| ✓ Keeps nitrogen in the root zone when co-composted or blended with manure, with slow release instead of quick loss |
| ✓ Long-term carbon, at an H:Corg of 0.20 roughly three-quarters of the carbon stays in the soil for 100+ years |
| ✓ CDFA-registered organic input, forest biomass only, no manure, biosolids or crop residue |
| ✓ NRCS EQIP 336 and Healthy Soils eligible, with blend rates paid separately in California |
| ✓ Typical rate 1–2 tons/acre per year, blended or straight; incorporate or band, spread damp on calm days |
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ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
WALNUTS
GRAPES
CITRUS
FIELD CROPS
DAIRY FORAGE
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JABB of the Carolinas · Biological
JABB Beauveria bassiana
Fall Seed Treatment
SPE-120 (OMRI Listed) & SBb 2.5 (conventional)
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Active Ingredient
1×10⁸ cfu/mL
Beauveria bassiana, 1%
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Rate
1 oz/acre
Seed, in-furrow, drench or foliar
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Best Temps
68–80°F
Avoid above 85°F or below 55°F
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Pre-Harvest Interval
Zero
Safe for beneficials
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A naturally occurring insect-killing fungus that colonizes the plant from the seed up. Applied to seed at planting, it establishes inside roots, stems and leaves as the crop grows, giving biological control of aphids, thrips and other insect pests through the season. October’s weather sits right in its 68–80°F sweet spot, which makes fall-planted small grains and forage the natural fit this month.
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| ✓ 1 ounce per acre, the same rate for seed treatment, in-furrow, soil drench or foliar |
| ✓ Labeled for wheat, oats, small grains, alfalfa and forage, plus tree nuts, grapes and citrus |
| ✓ 50–90% pest mortality depending on pest and conditions, with no resistance development |
| ✓ Spares lacewings, predatory mites and parasitic wasps, so it fits an IPM program |
| ✓ SPE-120 is OMRI Listed for organic ground; SBb 2.5 for conventional |
| ✓ Separate from copper fungicides by 5–7 days and sulfur by 3–5 days. Store below 90°F |
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WHEAT
OATS
FORAGE
ALFALFA
CORN
ALMONDS
CITRUS
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| What You’re Seeing |
What the Test Points To |
The Right Fix |
| Water drains straight through; the block dries out days before the next set |
Coarse, sandy, low-carbon ground with little water-holding capacity |
✓ Biochar. This is where the water-holding research is strongest, about +45% plant-available water in coarse soils. |
| Fertilizer response is short-lived; nitrogen seems to vanish between applications |
Leaching loss on a light, low-organic-matter profile |
✓ Biochar blended with compost or manure. The blend captures nitrate and releases it slowly. |
| Organic matter keeps testing low no matter how much compost goes on |
Compost breaking down in a season or two, carbon not building |
✓ Biochar in the compost blend. The carbon stays put for decades instead of a season. |
| Aphids and thrips hitting young small grains and forage every fall |
Insect pressure at stand establishment |
✓ JABB seed treatment at 1 oz/acre, so protection starts at the seed. |
| Crusting, dispersed, slow-draining ground |
Elevated exchangeable sodium (ESP), a sodic soil, not a water-holding problem |
Straight answer: biochar will not fix this. It needs soluble calcium at the rate the ESP calls for, then leaching, and fall before the rain is the time. |
October 2026 Fall Program: Biochar starts at 1 to 2 tons per acre per year (about 6 to 12 cubic yards), building to a 3 to 6 ton total over one to three years, the Healthy Soils range, without one heavy dose. Blend it with compost or manure, charge it with biology before or during blending rather than after it sits dry, and work it into the top few inches or band it in tree and vine rows soon after mixing. Biochar is light and dusty: keep it damp, spread on calm days, and wear a dust mask and eye protection. It is a soil-building investment, not a yield booster in a bag; published studies average about a 10% crop response, strongest on coarse and medium ground, and we will tell you straight whether your ground is a good fit. Program rates and rules change every year, so confirm EQIP and Healthy Soils details with your local office before you buy, and ask before stacking both programs on one field. JABB Beauveria bassiana goes on at 1 ounce per acre, applied directly to seed at planting or in-furrow. Apply in the 68–80°F range, store below 90°F out of direct sun, and separate it from copper and sulfur fungicides. Choose SPE-120 for certified organic ground and SBb 2.5 for conventional, and check the California label for your crop.
And keep post-harvest irrigation on. Diesel near $8.40 makes it tempting to shut down early, but a tree that goes into dormancy dry gives you a lighter 2027. Ground that holds more of each set is how you make that water go further.
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Questions? Let’s Talk.
The dry-ground window is closing. With an 83% chance of a historic El Niño, the growers who get amendments worked in and seed treated before the storms are the ones who come out ahead of a wet winter. Call and we will work out rates around your harvest and planting, and talk through fertilizer programs, water management, or this month’s market data while we are at it.
Soil & Water Analysis
Custom Blends
Organic & Biological Programs
Commodity Insights
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This Month in American History
October 19, 1781, The Surrender at Yorktown
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Four days from now, on October 19, marks 245 years since General Charles Cornwallis surrendered his army at Yorktown, Virginia. Washington’s Continental Army and its French allies had marched south from New York, dug siege lines around the town, and pounded it for three weeks while the French fleet held the Chesapeake shut. There was no way out by land or by sea.
The men in those trenches were not professional soldiers by trade. Many were farmers who had already lost harvests to the war, serving long past the enlistments they had signed, often unpaid and short of shoes. They stayed because the outcome mattered more than the season.
Yorktown did not end the war on paper; the treaty took two more years. But it decided it. Everything that came after, the right to own the ground you farm and keep what it produces, runs back to a muddy siege line in a Virginia October. It is worth the minute.
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I have the Honor to inform Congress, that a Reduction of the British Army under the Command of Lord Cornwallis, is most happily effected.
George Washington
Letter to the President of Congress, October 19, 1781
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To the Men & Women of Our Armed Forces and First Responders
From the fields of the Central Valley to the far corners of the world, your sacrifice, courage, and daily commitment make it possible for all of us to plant, grow, and build. We farm in freedom because you stand in its defense.
You are the reason we are Safe and Free.
B Mello Ag Services, Proudly American, Central Valley, California
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Every month we pull together the numbers that actually move your operation (milk, feed, fuel, water, and the crops in the ground) so you don’t have to chase them across a dozen reports. This month that meant cheaper corn, stubborn diesel, a milk spread that blew back open, and a winter that may close the ground early. When the markets turn, you’ll hear it from us first. That’s the promise behind every B Mello Economic Update.
Proudly American · Rooted in the American Dream
Bryan Mello
B Mello Ag Services, Central Valley, California
Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports, field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.
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B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
October 2026 Economic Update · Published October 15, 2026
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(559) 816-3889
bryan@bmelloag.com
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This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Commodity prices, fuel prices, water allocations, and weather data are sourced from publicly available government and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to change. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult with a licensed commodity broker before making marketing decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: USDA October 2026 WASDE (released Oct 9), USDA AMS Announcement of Class and Component Prices for September 2026 (Sep 30) and October advance Class I (Sep 23), USDA Dairy Market News and CME spot dairy closes (Oct 9, 2026), USDA AMS California hay report (Oct 9), CBOT/KCBT/ICE/CME futures settlements (Oct 6–13, 2026), AAA and EIA fuel price data (weeks of Oct 5–13), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Oct 6), California DWR and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation allocation and reservoir data, Westlands Water District notices, NWS Hanford, NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion (Oct 8) and outlooks, Almond Board of California position report (Oct 13), USDA NASS walnut forecast, USDA NRCS EQIP Practice 336 and CDFA Healthy Soils Program materials, biochar supplier specification and B Mello Biochar Reference Guide, JABB of the Carolinas product literature.
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