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Central Valley Agricultural Economic Intelligence
May 2026 Economic Update
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published week of May 15, 2026 • Commodity Prices • Milk & Dairy • Fuel • Water • Weather
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♦ CORN: ~$4.35/BU (Jul) ♦ WHEAT: $5.52/BU (Jul CBOT) ♦ MILK CLASS III FUTURES: ~$15.85/CWT ♦ CA DIESEL: $7.89/GAL ♦ MAY WASDE: ALL-MILK $20.70/CWT ♦ HEAT WAVE: WATER MGMT CRITICAL
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🍨
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Section 1
Milk Prices & Dairy Economic Outlook
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May 2026 brings continued pressure on Class III milk as the spring flush peaks in California. Cheese and butter prices remain mixed, with strong butter and NDM demand supporting Class IV. Domestic dairy fundamentals are solid, but record cow numbers and global supply growth continue to cap upside. Producers need to focus on margin protection and feed cost control entering hot-weather summer.
| Class I Milk |
| $17.98 |
| per cwt · May 2026 |
| ↓ Down $0.68 from April. USDA base price for fluid milk class. Seasonal flush pressure. |
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| Class III Milk |
| $16.75 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| ↓ Lower. May WASDE trimmed Class III $0.15 to $16.75/cwt. Near-term futures trading around $15.85. Supply overhang continues to cap rallies. |
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| Class IV Milk |
| $18.85 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| ↑ Up $0.25. Butter at $1.93/lb, NDM near $1.55/lb. Strong export & powder demand continues to support Class IV. |
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| All-Milk Price |
| $20.70 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| ↑ May WASDE raised $0.20 to $20.70/cwt, reflecting stronger Class IV products. Class III weakness partly offset by butter and powder gains. |
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| Component |
Price |
Market Note |
| Cheddar Cheese |
$1.485/lb |
May two-week avg: $1.4848/lb. Down 4.5 cents from April. Heavier production weighing on cheese; demand steady. |
| Butter |
$1.932/lb |
Up 3.5 cents from April. Strong export interest and consistent retail demand. May/June butter forward commitments tight. |
| Nonfat Dry Milk |
$1.554/lb |
May Advanced: $1.5538/lb. Up 1.1 cents. Strong NDM/SMP demand continues. Class IV support intact. |
| Dry Whey |
$0.671/lb |
May Advanced: $0.671/lb, down 1.3 cents from April. Global demand softening; whey forecast unchanged. |
| Retail Whole Milk |
$3.69/gal |
April 2026 national average. Organic whole milk at $5.29/half-gallon. |
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📈 Dairy Economic Outlook
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Spring flush is peaking. Central Valley processors continue to report milk output pushing capacity. Spot Class III loads remain available at $5-under to $3-under announced prices through mid-May. U.S. dairy cow numbers stand at 9.62 million head (up 213,000 year-on-year). Production gains tracking 2.9% above year-ago levels.
Heat stress watch: May daytime highs above 90°F now driving cow comfort concerns. Expect components (fat & protein) to soften in late May into June. Margins remain tight. Plan heat abatement, ration adjustments, and culling decisions carefully. Q2 culling will set the tone for late-2026 price recovery.
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🏃 Demand & Export Bright Spots
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Exports remain a key support. U.S. dairy exports in March 2026 hit 248,420 metric tons, up 12% year-over-year. Cheese exports up 19%; powder up 22%. Butter exports strong at 16,840 MT. The Middle East and Southeast Asia continue as leading buyers; Mexico cheese demand robust.
Watch: New Zealand production starting seasonal decline into autumn (Southern Hemisphere). May provides natural global tightening window. HPAI monitoring continues; CA dairy biosecurity protocols essential through summer.
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Section 2
Grain & Commodity Futures
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CBOT futures as of May 13, 2026. Crude oil has stabilized near $86/barrel following the May ceasefire extension, easing energy-driven grain price pressure. Spring planting is largely complete across the Corn Belt; weather and yield outlook now dominate market focus. Trade policy and global wheat supplies remain key wildcards through summer.
| Commodity |
Near-Month |
Deferred |
Market Note |
| 🌾 Corn (CBOT) |
$4.35/bu
Jul ’26 |
$4.41 Sep
$4.52 Dec |
↓ Down $0.15. May 12 WASDE: U.S. 2026/27 corn production projected at 15.82B bu on near-record acreage. Exports remain strong. Planting 88% complete vs. 5-yr avg of 85%. |
| 🌾 Wheat (CBOT) |
$5.52/bu
Jul ’26 |
$5.78 Sep
$6.05 Dec |
↓ Down $0.29. Improved global wheat conditions and aggressive Russian export pricing weighing. U.S. winter wheat 51% good/excellent. Spring wheat planting 78% complete. |
| 🌾 Wheat (HRW/KC) |
$5.78/bu
Jul ’26 |
$5.94 Sep
$6.23 Dec |
↓ Lower. Plains rain over the past two weeks improved HRW condition ratings. Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas all showing recovery. Harvest pressure approaching in June. |
| 🌎 Soybeans (CBOT) |
$10.94/bu
Jul ’26 |
$11.05 Aug
$10.78 Nov |
↓ Lower. Brazilian crop final at 6.78B bu (record). Export competition heavy. U.S. planting 72% complete; conditions favorable. Crush margins remain healthy supporting domestic demand. |
| 🌿 Cotton (ICE) |
66–71¢/lb
Jul ’26 |
Sideways |
→ Range-bound. Texas planting on track; CA acreage slightly below year-ago. Hot, dry May start good for stand establishment but plan irrigation aggressively. World demand soft. |
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Market Advisory: Crude oil has stabilized near $86/barrel with the extended ceasefire holding. CA fuel prices remain elevated due to structural refinery constraints and summer blend transition. May 12 WASDE raised 2026 all-milk forecast to $20.70/cwt on stronger Class IV products. This newsletter is for informational purposes only. Consult your commodity broker before making merchandising decisions.
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Section 3
Fuel Prices & Outlook
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California diesel prices climbed above $7.85/gal in May as summer fuel blend transitions and ongoing refinery maintenance constraints tightened supply. Crude oil has stabilized in the mid-$80s/barrel following the extended ceasefire, but state-specific structural costs continue to drive California fuel prices to among the highest in the nation. Budget fuel as a major fixed cost through summer irrigation season.
| ⚠ ELEVATED, SUMMER PEAK |
| Diesel (Clear #2) |
| $7.89 |
| per gallon · CA avg wk May 12 |
| ↑ Up $0.16 from April. Summer blend transition; refinery maintenance constrained supply. National diesel avg $4.92/gal. Summer demand peak ahead. |
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| Red Diesel (Ag Dyed) |
| Est. $7.05–$7.35 |
| per gallon · estimated Central Valley |
| ↑ Up ~$0.15. Off-road dyed diesel tracking clear diesel upward. Tax exemption saves ~$0.55/gal road taxes. Confirm with your local supplier, pricing varies by volume and region. |
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| Gasoline (Regular) |
| $6.21 |
| per gallon · CA avg (AAA May 12) |
| ↑ Up $0.28. National avg $3.42 (AAA). California $2.79 premium. Summer demand and reformulated blend driving prices. LCFS update July 1 looms. |
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⚠ Why Prices Are So High
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California fuel price pressure continues in May 2026:
• Refinery maintenance season tightening in-state supply during peak demand transition.
• Summer fuel blend required May 1, reformulated CARB gasoline is more costly to produce.
• CARB Cap-and-Invest currently adds ~$0.26/gal; LCFS update July 1, 2026 expected to add another $0.65/gal.
• California taxes add ~$0.92/gal, highest in the nation.
• Summer travel demand ramping up; Memorial Day weekend typical seasonal price peak.
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📊 30-Day Fuel Price Outlook
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Analyst base-case projects California regular gasoline averaging $6.10–$6.65/gal through summer, with diesel tracking in the $7.75–$8.25/gal range. July 1 LCFS update could push prices to upper bound.
Agricultural impacts: Nitrogen fertilizer prices have moderated as crude stabilized, with delivered Central Valley urea at $425–$485/ton, still well above pre-2025 levels.
Action: Lock in summer fuel contracts now. Peak irrigation demand will coincide with seasonally high prices. Consider bulk fuel storage if storage capacity available.
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Crude Oil Context. WTI crude closed at $86.42/barrel on May 12 with the extended ceasefire holding. Every $10/barrel move in crude translates to approximately $0.24/gal at the pump. Despite crude moderation, California fuel prices remain elevated due to structural in-state costs. Monitor refinery maintenance schedules and the July 1 LCFS update which could add $0.65/gal.
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Section 4
Weather Outlook & Agricultural Relevance
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A pattern of intense early-season heat is gripping the Central Valley in May 2026, with daytime highs running 8–12°F above normal. Combined with near-record-low snowpack runoff and minimal precipitation in the 30-day outlook, the valley is entering peak irrigation season earlier and more aggressively than typical. Water management efficiency is now the single most critical factor for 2026 yields.
| High Temp |
| 92–98°F |
| Fresno / CV mid-May range |
| Heat wave conditions. Running 8–12°F above normal. Heat dome locked over CA. Multiple days above 95°F ahead. |
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| Low Temp |
| 62–68°F |
| overnight lows |
| Warm nights. Frost risk has passed. Warm overnights limit evaporative cooling for plants & livestock. Dairy heat stress now a critical concern. |
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| ET Demand |
| 0.28–0.34" |
| per day · reference ET |
| Peak season. CIMIS data showing peak summer ETo arrived 2–3 weeks early. Irrigation scheduling must match. |
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| Precipitation |
| Near 0 |
| May outlook |
| Wet season ended. No meaningful rain expected for the CV through end of June. All water needs depend on irrigation. |
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| Crop / Sector |
May Weather Relevance & Action Items |
| 🍐 Almonds / Pistachios |
Peak water demand. ET running 0.30–0.34"/day. Hull-split for almonds approaching by mid-June, stress carefully in the next 30 days. Pistachio shells beginning to size. Mites and NOW activity surging in heat, scout twice weekly. Gypsum applications now improve infiltration to maximize each irrigation event. |
| 🍇 Grapes |
Bloom complete; berries setting. Frost risk has passed. Critical irrigation window now, manage soil moisture carefully through fruit set. Mildew pressure heavy in warm humid mornings, keep fungicide rotation tight. Heat stress canopy management essential. Heat above 100°F can damage developing berries. |
| 🪓 Walnuts |
Active growth phase. ET demand high. Codling moth flights continuing, monitor traps weekly. Walnut husk fly biofix approaching. Sunburn protection critical in extreme heat, consider kaolin clay application on west-side blocks. Maintain consistent irrigation to prevent shell hardening issues. |
| 🌾 Wheat / Small Grains |
Grain fill underway; heat accelerating maturity. Late-planted fields stressed by 95°F+ days. Harvest of irrigated CV wheat begins late May/early June. Test grain at 13–14% moisture for storage. Watch for shrivel and lightweight kernels in heat-stressed fields. Plan post-harvest soil preparation for double-crop rotations. |
| 🌽 Corn / Corn Silage |
Corn silage planting completing across the valley; first-planted fields at V4–V6. Heat is accelerating GDU accumulation, silage harvest may arrive 7–10 days earlier than typical. Irrigation demand climbing rapidly, maintain consistent soil moisture through tasseling. Side-dress N timing critical at V6–V8. Scout for spider mites and corn earworm; pressure rising with heat. Dairy operators: plan harvest logistics now to capture optimal whole-plant moisture (65–70%). |
| 🌿 Cotton / Field Crops |
Cotton planting completing; warm soil temps favorable for stand establishment. First-irrigation timing critical, don't let young plants stress. Aphid & thrips early-season monitoring needed. Pre-emerge herbicides activated by warm soil. Alfalfa second cutting underway, quality affected by heat-driven rapid maturation; adjust schedule accordingly. |
| 🍊 Citrus |
Fruitlet sizing critical period. Watch citrus thrips closely; treat at threshold. Heat stress during cell division stage limits final fruit size, maintain optimal irrigation. Sunburn protection on west-facing limbs. ACP monitoring ongoing; report Huanglongbing symptoms to CDFA immediately. Foliar Ca and Zn applications support fruit development. |
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30-Day Outlook (May 15 – June 15): Above-normal temperatures expected to persist. Highs averaging 95–102°F. Below-normal precipitation across all of the Central Valley. Peak ET demand throughout the window. Heat dome pattern may produce 3–5 days of triple-digit temperatures by early June. Irrigation efficiency is paramount, every gallon must work harder. Soil amendments that improve infiltration and water-holding capacity (gypsum, soil wetting agents) directly translate to yield protection.
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Section 5
Water Situation & District Updates
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May is the make-or-break month for 2026 Central Valley water management. With snowpack runoff largely consumed by early summer heat, surface water deliveries are well underway and groundwater is filling the gap. Operations must execute efficient irrigation now, the next 90 days will determine which farms protect yields and which see significant losses.
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🚫 Critical: Runoff Status
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May 1 DWR final snow survey confirmed statewide snowpack at just 24% of average, far below normal water-year benchmarks. Northern Sierra finished at 9% of average; Central Sierra at 28%; Southern Sierra at 35%. The early-season runoff peak has already passed in most river systems.
Compressed runoff means rivers are dropping quickly toward summer base flows. Water districts and Bureau of Reclamation are managing tight summer release schedules. Surface water deliveries are happening at higher rates than typical for May to take advantage of remaining runoff.
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💧 Reservoir Storage Update
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As of May 1, statewide reservoirs were at 112% of average storage, still above normal but drawing down rapidly. Shasta sits at 84% capacity; Oroville at 88%. The question now is drawdown rate through a long, hot, dry summer.
Bureau of Reclamation has reaffirmed CVP allocations published earlier in the year. Some south-of-Delta contractors may see updates as runoff data finalizes through May. Groundwater pumping demand is accelerating valley-wide, SGMA reporting requirements remain in full effect.
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| CVP Contractor / District |
2026 Allocation |
Notes |
| Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (N of Delta) |
100% ✓ |
Non-critical year. Settlement contract senior rights. Full supply secured. |
| M&I Contractors (N of Delta, Folsom) |
100% ✓ |
American River / Folsom Reservoir water service. Full allocation. |
| Friant Division (Millerton / Friant-Kern Canal) |
100% Class 1 ✓ |
First 800,000 AF fully allocated. Class 2 at 0%. Friant-Kern Canal water delivery running. |
| Irrigation Contractors (S of Delta), incl. Westlands |
20% ⚠ |
Updated March 24 from 15%. Westlands called this "simply inadequate." ~180,000 AF rescheduled from 2025 partially offsetting. Groundwater pumping increasing. |
| M&I Contractors (S of Delta) |
65% public health |
Or historic use, whichever is greater. Public health and safety baseline secured. |
| Cross Valley Contractors (irrigation) |
15% ⚠ |
Critical shortage continues. Groundwater pumping accelerating. Some operations have already exceeded planned annual pumping by mid-May. |
| Eastside Contractors (Central SJ Water, Stockton East) |
0% ✗ |
No contract supply. Entirely dependent on alternative sources and groundwater. Conditions tightest of all CV regions. |
| State Water Project (SWP), South |
35% revised |
May 1 revision from 30% to 35%. Modest improvement reflects runoff finalization. Final summer allocation possible by mid-June. |
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📅 Water Release Dates & Run Times
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Friant-Kern Canal: Class 1 water deliveries running at full schedule. Contact Friant Water Authority for your district's portal windows. Some districts running extended turn schedules through Memorial Day weekend to capture available supply.
Madera Canal: Running concurrent with Friant-Kern. Madera Irrigation District operating on 5-day rotations. May/June turn schedule confirmed.
Delta-Mendota Canal (DMC): Limited deliveries reflecting south-of-Delta 20% allocation. Plan groundwater pumping accordingly. June deliveries expected to taper further.
Kings River / Tulare Lake Basin: Run times extended to support late-spring crop demands. Contact Consolidated Irrigation District, Kings River Conservation District, or your local water district for current turn schedules.
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⚡ Key Water Management Priorities
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With peak heat already here and a long, dry summer ahead, irrigation efficiency is the difference between profit and loss this season:
• Solution-grade gypsum applications now: Improve infiltration, reduce surface crusting, and increase water-holding capacity, every irrigation event reaches the root zone more effectively.
• Irrigation scheduling efficiency: Use ET-based tools (CIMIS) to match daily supply to crop demand. No guesswork.
• Groundwater management: Coordinate with neighbors. Tank capacities tightening across the valley.
• SGMA compliance: Track every acre-foot pumped. Increased reliance on groundwater means accurate reporting is non-negotiable.
• Crop prioritization: Limited supply growers must direct water to highest-value perennials first.
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Water Advisory: The combination of poor snowpack runoff, accelerated reservoir drawdown, and below-average CVP south-of-Delta allocations makes May–September 2026 one of the most water-constrained periods in recent memory. Bureau of Reclamation continues monitoring conditions, some upward revisions for SWP are still possible but CVP increases unlikely. Soil amendments that improve infiltration and water retention are now critical tools, not optional upgrades. Contact your local water district for the most current delivery schedules and allocation status.
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Section 6
Product Spotlight
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With surface water allocations tight, peak heat already arrived, and irrigation efficiency now make-or-break for 2026 yields, this is the month for solution-grade gypsum. Two products from Diamond K Gypsum are featured this month, Diamond K Premium 97, the highest-purity gypsum on the market, and Diamond K Premium HA95, the high-analysis humic-acid-enhanced formulation. Both deliver the soil structure, infiltration, and water-holding capacity gains you need to make every gallon of water count this summer.
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Diamond K Gypsum · Solution Grade Calcium Sulfate
Premium 97
Highest-Purity Solution-Grade Gypsum
97% Calcium Sulfate Dihydrate, CDFA Registered, OMRI Listed
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Calcium Sulfate Purity
97% CaSO₄·2H₂O
22% Ca · 17% S guaranteed
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Solubility
Rapid
Inject through drip & pivot systems
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Application Rate
500–2000 lb/acre
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pH Impact
Neutral
No pH shift, safe on all soils
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Premium 97 is the highest-purity solution-grade gypsum on the Central Valley market. Its rapid solubility makes it ideal for fertigation through drip and pivot systems, delivering calcium and sulfate directly to the root zone where they break up sodic soils, improve infiltration, and increase water-holding capacity. In a year when every gallon of water matters, Premium 97 puts every gallon to better work.
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| ✓ Highest purity available, 97% calcium sulfate dihydrate, more active ingredient per ton |
| ✓ Improves soil structure, flocculates clay particles, reduces compaction, opens infiltration pathways |
| ✓ Reclaims sodic soils, calcium displaces sodium, restores soil productivity |
| ✓ Fertigation-ready, rapid solubility for drip, pivot, micro-sprinkler systems |
| ✓ OMRI Listed & CDFA Registered, approved for organic and conventional production |
| ✓ Available in 50 lb bags, super sacks, and bulk delivery |
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ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
GRAPES
CITRUS
DAIRY FORAGE
ROW CROPS
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Diamond K Gypsum · Solution Grade + Humic Acid
Premium HA95
Solution-Grade Gypsum + Humic Acid
95% Calcium Sulfate + 5% Humic Acid, CDFA Registered
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★ Water Smart
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Calcium Sulfate
95% Pure
21% Ca · 16% S
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Humic Acid Content
5% HA
Activates soil biology
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Application Rate
400–1500 lb/acre
Inject via fertigation
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Solubility
Rapid
Inject through drip & pivot systems
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Premium HA95 is a solution-grade gypsum enhanced with humic acid for a dual-action soil amendment. Like Premium 97, its rapid solubility makes it ideal for fertigation through drip and pivot systems, delivering calcium and sulfate directly to the root zone to break up clay, reclaim sodic soils, and improve infiltration. The added humic acid component activates beneficial soil biology, stimulates root development, and enhances nutrient uptake efficiency. The result: better soil structure, deeper roots, and more efficient water and nutrient use, exactly what's needed in a hot, water-constrained 2026 summer.
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| ✓ Dual action, gypsum improves physical soil structure; humic acid stimulates biology |
| ✓ Fertigation-ready, rapid solubility for drip, pivot, micro-sprinkler systems |
| ✓ Enhanced root development, humic acid promotes deeper, more efficient root systems |
| ✓ Improves nutrient uptake, chelates micronutrients; reduces fertilizer fixation in soils |
| ✓ Better water-holding capacity, humic acid binds water molecules in the root zone |
| ✓ Available in super sacks |
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ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
COTTON
GRAPES
CITRUS
DAIRY FORAGE
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| Feature / Benefit |
Premium 97 |
Premium HA95 |
| Primary water benefit |
Improves infiltration & soil structure |
Infiltration + water retention via humic acid |
| Calcium / sulfate purity |
✓ 97%, highest available |
✓ 95% + 5% humic acid |
| Stimulates soil biology |
Indirect |
✓ Direct, humic acid activates microbes |
| Application method |
Inject via fertigation through drip, pivot, or micro-sprinkler systems |
Inject via fertigation through drip, pivot, or micro-sprinkler systems |
| OMRI Listed for organic use |
✓ Yes, OMRI & CDFA registered |
✓ Yes, CDFA registered |
| Best use scenario in 2026 |
Sodic soils, clay-heavy ground, crusting fields, fertigation programs |
Stressed, sandy, or low-organic-matter soils; rebuilding root systems |
| Used together |
✓ Highly complementary: Premium 97 for fertigation and high-purity calcium delivery; HA95 for soil-biology stimulation and root development. Together they cover the full range of soil structure, biology, and water-efficiency needs. |
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May 2026 Water-Efficiency Strategy: Now is the prime application window for solution-grade gypsum. With surface water tight and heat already driving peak ET demand, soil structure must be working in your favor. Premium 97 can be injected through your fertigation system at 50–200 lb/acre per pass for fast-acting, high-purity calcium and sulfate delivery directly to the root zone. Premium HA95 applies the same way, injectable via fertigation at 50–200 lb/acre per pass, with the added benefit of humic acid to stimulate soil biology and root development. Both products work hard for every dollar spent in a water-constrained season. Ask Bryan about rates and program design specific to your crops and soil types.
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Questions? Let’s Talk.
Every operation is different. Whether it’s fertilizer programs, water management, or making sense of this month’s market data, reach out directly. B Mello Ag Services is here to help you navigate the 2026 season.
Soil and Water Analysis
Fertigation Programs
Custom Blends
Organic and Biological Programs
Commodity Insights
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This Month in American History
Memorial Day, Honoring Those Who Gave All
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On Monday, May 25, 2026, the United States will pause to observe Memorial Day, a sacred day set aside to honor the men and women of the Armed Forces who gave their lives in service to our nation. It is not a celebration of military service in general, that is Veterans Day in November, but a solemn remembrance of those who never came home.
The tradition traces back to the years after the Civil War, when communities across the country, both North and South, began decorating the graves of fallen soldiers with flowers and flags. Originally called Decoration Day, the observance grew into a national tradition. In 1971, Congress formally established Memorial Day as a federal holiday on the last Monday in May.
From the battlefields of Gettysburg to the beaches of Normandy, from the jungles of Vietnam to the deserts of Iraq and Afghanistan, more than 1.3 million American service members have died defending the freedoms we exercise every day. Today, in fields across the Central Valley, we plant and harvest in peace because of them.
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“
We here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
Abraham Lincoln
The Gettysburg Address, November 19, 1863
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⚒
Army
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✈
Air Force & Space
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⚓
Navy & Marines
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🚢
Fire & Rescue
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🚒
Law Enforcement
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🚑
EMS & Medical
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To the Men & Women of Our Armed Forces and First Responders
From the fields of the Central Valley to the far corners of the world, your sacrifice, courage, and daily commitment make it possible for all of us to plant, grow, and build. We farm in freedom because you stand in its defense.
You are the reason we are Safe and Free.
B Mello Ag Services, Proudly American, Central Valley, California
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B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
May 2026 Economic Update · Published week of May 15, 2026
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(559) 816-3889
bryan@bmelloag.com
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This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Commodity prices, fuel prices, water allocations, and weather data are sourced from publicly available government and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to change. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult with a licensed commodity broker before making marketing decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: USDA AMS, Bureau of Reclamation, California DWR, EIA, AAA Fuel Prices, CBOT/USDA Futures Settlements (May 12, 2026), CIMIS, and industry market reports.
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