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Central Valley Agricultural Economic Intelligence
April 2026 Economic Update
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published week of April 15, 2026 • Commodity Prices • Milk & Dairy • Fuel • Water • Weather
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♦ CORN: ~$4.50/BU (Jul) ♦ WHEAT: $5.81/BU (Jul CBOT) ♦ MILK CLASS III FUTURES: ~$16.00/CWT ♦ CA DIESEL: $7.73 ALL-TIME HIGH ♦ APRIL WASDE: ALL-MILK RAISED TO $20.50/CWT ♦ SNOWPACK: 18% AVG
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Section 1
Milk Prices & Dairy Economic Outlook
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April 2026 prices reflect a challenging dairy environment. Record cow numbers and strong production are keeping Class III futures capped even as domestic demand remains solid. The spring flush is pushing milk output above processing capacities in California, with spot milk available at discounts.
| Class I Milk |
| $18.66 |
| per cwt · April 2026 |
| ↑ Up $2.09 from March. USDA base price for fluid milk class. |
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| Class III Milk |
| $16.90 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| → Steady. April WASDE raised to $16.90/cwt on stronger cheese prices. Near-term futures trading around $16.00. Supply overhang limiting rallies above $18. |
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| Class IV Milk |
| $18.60 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| ↑ Revised up $1.45. Butter at $1.87/lb. Strong powder demand supporting Class IV. |
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| All-Milk Price |
| $20.50 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| ↑ April WASDE raised $0.80 to $20.50/cwt, the highest 2026 forecast yet. Improved cheese and NDM prices driving the upgrade. Still below 2025 levels. |
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| Component |
Price |
Market Note |
| Cheddar Cheese |
$1.530/lb |
April two-week avg: $1.5297/lb. WASDE raised 2026 forecast on strong domestic demand and improved export competitiveness. |
| Butter |
$1.897/lb |
Up 19.0 cents, significant move. 80% of available butter sold for May & September delivery. |
| Nonfat Dry Milk |
$1.543/lb |
April Advanced: $1.5431/lb, significantly higher. Strong NDM/SMP demand drove April WASDE Class IV revision upward. |
| Dry Whey |
$0.684/lb |
April Advanced: $0.684/lb. WASDE left 2026 whey forecast unchanged. Demand mixed globally. |
| Retail Whole Milk |
$3.67/gal |
March 2026 national average. Organic whole milk at $5.24/half-gallon. |
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📈 Dairy Economic Outlook
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Spring flush is here. Central Valley processors report milk output pushing against capacity limits. Spot Class III loads are available at $7-under to $2-under announced prices this week. Record U.S. dairy cow numbers (9.58 million head, up 189,000 year-on-year) and a 3.2% year-over-year production gain are keeping a ceiling on Class III.
Bottom line for producers: Margins are squeezed. Cost-of-production remains elevated. Herd culling decisions will be critical in 2026 for the long-term price recovery. Watch for late-year improvement if culling accelerates in Q1–Q2.
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🏃 Demand & Export Bright Spots
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Exports remain a bright spot. U.S. dairy exports in December 2025 hit 239,083 metric tons, up 15% year-over-year. Cheese exports up 24%; powder up 18%. Butter strong at 15,714 MT. The Middle East remains the leading cheese buyer.
Watch: New Zealand February milk production surged to record levels (+7.4% year-on-year), adding global supply competition. HPAI in dairy remains a risk factor for 2026 operations.
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Section 2
Grain & Commodity Futures
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CBOT futures as of April 1, 2026. Crude oil surged above $112/barrel following President Trump's address on the U.S.–Iran conflict, injecting significant energy-driven volatility into grain markets. Trade policy and the Strait of Hormuz situation remain key wildcards.
| Commodity |
Near-Month |
Deferred |
Market Note |
| 🌾 Corn (CBOT) |
$4.54/bu
May ’26 |
$4.62 Sep
$4.79 Dec |
↓ Lower. Apr 9 WASDE: corn and soy production unchanged. Exports 36% above year-ago pace (1.83B bu cumulative). Acreage uncertainty as spring planting begins across the Corn Belt. |
| 🌾 Wheat (CBOT) |
$5.975/bu
May ’26 |
$6.22 Sep
$6.55 Dec |
↑ Firming. Exports 17% above year-ago pace (745.1M bu). Managed money at smallest net-short since July 2022. Lower soybean & wheat acreage in Prospective Plantings drove buying interest. |
| 🌾 Wheat (HRW/KC) |
$6.14/bu
May ’26 |
$6.18 Sep
$6.55 Dec |
↑ Stronger. Managed money in KC at net long 9,705 contracts. Dry weather across the Plains supporting hard red winter. Flag-leaf fungicide window open now. |
| 🌎 Soybeans (CBOT) |
$11.685/bu
May ’26 |
$11.83 Aug
$11.65 Nov |
→ Mixed. Jul up 10.25c to $11.91 this week, flash sale 100,000 MT soymeal to Italy added support. WASDE left SA production unchanged: Brazil 6.61B bu, Argentina 1.76B bu. |
| 🌿 Cotton (ICE) |
68–73¢/lb
May ’26 |
Sideways |
→ Uncertain. Narrow price band. Trade policy noise continues. Check crop insurance thresholds before locking in acres for Kern and Kings county fields. |
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Market Advisory: President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 8, providing temporary crude oil relief after highs above $112/barrel. CA fuel prices remain at all-time records due to structural refinery constraints. April 9 WASDE raised 2026 all-milk price to $20.50/cwt. This newsletter is for informational purposes only. Consult your commodity broker before making merchandising decisions.
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Section 3
Fuel Prices & Outlook
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California diesel prices have set all-time records this week. The convergence of two major refinery closures, escalating CARB regulatory costs, and the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict driving crude above $112/barrel is creating an unprecedented fuel price environment for Central Valley agriculture.
| ⚠ ALL-TIME HIGH |
| Diesel (Clear #2) |
| $7.73 |
| per gallon · CA avg wk Apr 7 |
| ↑ All-time record. New CA all-time record per Center Square. National diesel hit $5.65 (prev record: $5.82 in 2022). Iran ceasefire announced Apr 8 may ease pressure. |
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| Red Diesel (Ag Dyed) |
| Est. $6.90–$7.20 |
| per gallon · estimated Central Valley |
| ↑ Record territory. Off-road dyed diesel saving road taxes but still at historic highs. Confirm with your local supplier, pricing varies by volume and region. |
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| Gasoline (Regular) |
| $5.93 |
| per gallon · CA avg (AAA Apr 12) |
| ↑ Elevated. National avg $4.17 (AAA). California $1.76 premium. Wk of Apr 6 EIA reading: $5.882/gal. Two-week ceasefire announcement may provide some relief. CARB blend requirements and refinery closures driving gap. |
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⚠ Why Prices Are So High
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California faces a rare convergence of fuel price pressures in April 2026:
• Two major refinery closures removed 18–21% of in-state refining capacity.
• U.S.–Iran conflict has driven crude above $112/barrel with Strait of Hormuz supply-chain disruption.
• CARB Cap-and-Invest adds ~$0.24/gal currently; LCFS update July 1, 2026 could add another $0.65/gal.
• California taxes add ~$0.90/gal, highest in the nation.
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📊 30-Day Fuel Price Outlook
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Analyst base-case projects California regular gasoline averaging $5.50Analyst base-case projects California regular gasoline averaging $6.00–$7.35/gal by late 2026ndash;$7.35/gal by late 2026 (ceasefire may ease upper-end pressure), with diesel tracking in a similar range.
Agricultural impacts: Nitrogen fertilizer delivered to the Central Valley is projected at $450–$575/ton, a 30–80% increase from pre-conflict levels depending on Strait of Hormuz duration.
Action: Locking in bulk delivery contracts now may provide meaningful protection against further increases.
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URGENT: Crude Oil Context. Crude oil closed at $112.06/barrel on April 3 following President Trump's address indicating 2–3 more weeks of strikes and an uncertain outcome regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Every $10/barrel move in crude translates to approximately $0.24/gal at the pump. This situation requires close monitoring.
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Section 4
Weather Outlook & Agricultural Relevance
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A record-shattering March heat wave fundamentally changed California's 2026 water and agricultural outlook. The Sierra Nevada snowpack has been largely erased ahead of schedule, and April temperatures are following a warm trend. For Central Valley crops, this means a compressed irrigation management window is now in effect.
| High Temp |
| 65–79°F |
| Fresno / CV mid-April range |
| Warm & sunny through mid-month. Seasonal warming trend in effect. No precip expected. |
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| Low Temp |
| 44–53°F |
| overnight lows |
| ✈ Frost risk! Watch late-April nights especially for vine & citrus bloom stage. Cold air can settle in low spots. |
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| Snowpack |
| 18% |
| of average for April 1 |
| 2nd lowest on record. Phillips Station: no measurable snow April 1. Northern Sierra at just 6% of average. |
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| Precipitation |
| Near 0 |
| April outlook |
| April is historically California's last month of the wet season. Very low chance of meaningful rain in the CV this month. |
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| Crop / Sector |
April Weather Relevance & Action Items |
| 🍐 Almonds / Pistachios |
Warming temps accelerating nut set. Peak water demand beginning. ET rates climbing rapidly, begin scheduling sustained drip runs. Warm nights support pest pressure (NOW, mites): scout weekly. No frost risk for these crops at this stage. |
| 🍇 Grapes |
FROST ALERT mid-April nights. Bud break to 4-inch shoots, most vulnerable frost period. Have wind machines on standby. Minimum thermometers in every block. Warm daytime temps will push shoot growth fast; powdery mildew program should already be running at 0.5-inch. |
| 🪓 Walnuts |
Warm April accelerates bud break, monitor for late frost events especially in low-lying ground through April 15. Codling moth degree-day accumulation is happening fast; traps should be deployed now. Walnut blight risk is lower with dry weather, a silver lining from the dry pattern. |
| 🌾 Wheat / Small Grains |
Flag leaf to heading, warm, dry April weather is favorable for grain fill but increases stripe rust and aphid pressure. Check soil moisture at depth; April ET will outpace residual soil water quickly without irrigation. Final N top-dress window is closing fast. |
| 🌿 Cotton / Field Crops |
Soil temps at 4-inch depth need to reach 65°F consistently. Kern and Kings county soils may reach that threshold by April 20–25 with this warm trend. Early planting into marginal temperatures risks stand failure. Wait for sustained warmth. Pre-plant irrigation 7–10 days before planting to firm beds. |
| 🍊 Citrus |
Warm April drives bloom and early fruit set. Watch for citrus thrips as fruit sets. Moderate mild stress leading into bloom is beneficial, ease off irrigation at full petal drop. Asian Citrus Psyllid monitoring is a priority, report any suspicious yellowing or die-back to CDFA immediately. |
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30-Day Outlook (April 15 – May 15): Warm and dry conditions expected to persist through the balance of April and into May. Below-normal precipitation likelihood for the Central Valley. Temperatures trending 3–5°F above historical average. ET demand will ramp sharply, growers should be transitioning from soil-moisture storage reliance to active irrigation management now. Water availability constraints (see Section 5) make irrigation scheduling efficiency critical this season.
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Section 5
Water Situation & District Updates
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The 2026 water year is one of the most complex in recent memory. Reservoir storage remains above average thanks to prior wet years, but the near-total loss of the Sierra snowpack from March's record heat wave has fundamentally changed summer runoff projections. South-of-Delta agricultural allocations remain critically low.
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🚫 Critical: Sierra Snowpack
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DWR's April 1 snow survey at Phillips Station found no measurable snow, the second-lowest April reading on record. Statewide snowpack is now only 18% of average. The Northern Sierra, which feeds the state's largest water supply reservoirs, stands at just 6% of average.
The rapid melt was driven by a record-shattering late-March heat wave, combined with warm storms that delivered precipitation as rain rather than snow. Much of the snowpack was already gone well before the traditional April peak.
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💧 Reservoir Storage: Silver Lining
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Despite the snowpack crisis, major reservoir storage remains above average for this time of year, a buffer from prior wet years and effective water management. As of late February, statewide reservoirs were at 122% of average storage.
The critical question now is how long reservoir storage lasts through a long, hot, dry summer without significant snowmelt replenishment. Groundwater pumping will increase, a direct cost and long-term sustainability concern.
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| CVP Contractor / District |
2026 Allocation |
Notes |
| Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (N of Delta) |
100% ✓ |
Non-critical year. Settlement contract senior rights. Full supply secured. |
| M&I Contractors (N of Delta, Folsom) |
100% ✓ |
American River / Folsom Reservoir water service. Full allocation. |
| Friant Division (Millerton / Friant-Kern Canal) |
100% Class 1 ✓ |
First 800,000 AF fully allocated. Class 2 at 0%. Friant-Kern Canal water delivery running. |
| Irrigation Contractors (S of Delta), incl. Westlands |
20% ⚠ |
Updated March 24 from 15%. Westlands called this "simply inadequate." ~180,000 AF rescheduled from 2025 partially offsetting. Groundwater pumping increasing. |
| M&I Contractors (S of Delta) |
65% public health |
Or historic use, whichever is greater. Public health and safety baseline secured. |
| Cross Valley Contractors (irrigation) |
15% ⚠ |
Critical shortage. Groundwater will be primary supply source for many operations. |
| Eastside Contractors (Central SJ Water, Stockton East) |
0% ✗ |
No contract supply. Entirely dependent on alternative sources and groundwater. |
| State Water Project (SWP), South |
30% initial |
Updated Jan 29 from initial 10%. Valley Water (Santa Clara) receiving ~30,000 AF. SWP allocations subject to revision as season evolves. |
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📅 Water Release Dates & Run Times
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Friant-Kern Canal: Class 1 water deliveries underway. Contact Friant Water Authority for your district's scheduled run times and portal windows. Priority deliveries ongoing through summer.
Madera Canal: Running in conjunction with Friant Class 1 deliveries. Check Madera Irrigation District's schedule for April turn schedules.
Delta-Mendota Canal (DMC): Limited deliveries reflecting south-of-Delta 20% allocation. Confirm actual delivery schedules with your water district and plan groundwater pumping accordingly.
Kings River / Tulare Lake Basin: Contact Consolidated Irrigation District, Kings River Conservation District, or your local water district for specific April delivery windows and turn schedules.
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⚡ Key Water Management Priorities
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With the snowpack effectively gone and summer-long reservoir drawdown ahead, irrigation efficiency is a financial and operational imperative this season:
• Irrigation scheduling efficiency: Use ET-based tools (CIMIS) to precisely match supply to crop demand. Avoid any waste.
• Groundwater strategy: Plan pumping now. Wells under increased demand valley-wide, coordinate with neighbors where possible.
• SGMA compliance: Increased groundwater use must be tracked per Sustainable Groundwater Management Act requirements.
• Drip & micro-efficiency: Every gallon counts. Check emitter function and distribution uniformity before peak demand.
• Crop prioritization: Growers with limited supply must prioritize water to highest-value perennial crops.
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Water Advisory: The combination of near-zero snowpack and below-average CVP allocations for south-of-Delta contractors makes 2026 one of the most water-constrained seasons in recent memory despite above-average reservoir storage. Bureau of Reclamation has indicated it will continue monitoring hydrology and may adjust allocations, but upward revisions appear unlikely given the snowpack collapse. Contact your local water district for the most current delivery schedules and allocation status.
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Section 6
Product Spotlight
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With CVP south-of-Delta allocations at only 20% and snowpack effectively gone, every drop of water must work harder this season. This month we’re spotlighting two products that help you do exactly that, Aqua-Drive™ from Diamond K Gypsum, a soil wetting agent that drives water deep into the root zone, and KMI Zeolite 30-Mesh, a natural mineral that holds water and nutrients where roots can reach them.
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Diamond K Gypsum · Soil Wetting Agent
Aqua-Drive™
The #1 Soil Wetting Agent
Non-Ionic Block Polymer Surfactant, For Professional / Industrial Use
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Active Ingredients
25% Copolymers
Polyethylene & polypropylene glycols
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Surface Tension Reduction
Up to 60%
Drives moisture into hard-to-wet soils
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Re-wet Duration
45–60 Days
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Initial Rate
2 Qt / Acre
Then 1 qt/acre monthly
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Aqua-Drive is a non-ionic surfactant designed to improve soil wetting and penetration of treated irrigation water. It reduces the surface tension of water to as much as 60%, driving moisture into hard-to-wet and hydrophobic soil profiles, meaning more of your limited water supply actually reaches the root zone where crops need it.
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| ✓ Block polymer surfactant, treats soil AND water, driving moisture into hard-to-wet profiles |
| ✓ Two modes of action, reduces surface tension AND attaches to hydrophobic soil colloids |
| ✓ Unique re-wet chemistry, remains active over multiple irrigations up to 45–60 days |
| ✓ Reduces pooling and runoff, more water enters the root zone and less is lost |
| ✓ Safe for center pivot, drip, micro-sprinkler & ground applicators |
| ✓ Available in 2×2.5 Gallon Jugs and 265 Gallon Totes |
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ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
GRAPES
CITRUS
COTTON
WALNUTS
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KMI Zeolite · 30-US Mesh · OMRI Listed
KMI Zeolite
Natural Water & Nutrient Manager
97%+ Clinoptilolite, OMRI Listed, CDFA Certified, GRAS
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★ Water Smart
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Clinoptilolite Content
97%+
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Cation Exchange (CEC)
1.6–2.0 meq/g
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Particle Size (30-mesh)
90% <0.595 mm
Median ~80 US mesh
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pH Stability
3.0 – 10.0
Stable across all ag soil types
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KMI Zeolite is a naturally mined clinoptilolite zeolite that acts as a sponge and slow-release reservoir in your soil, holding water and nutrients in the root zone instead of letting them drain away. In a year when every gallon of irrigation water counts, zeolite helps you stretch your allocation by improving soil moisture retention and reducing leaching of applied fertilizers.
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| ✓ Holds water in the root zone, high surface area (40 m²/g) & CEC retains moisture between irrigations |
| ✓ Slow-releases nutrients, captures NH4+, K+, Ca2+ and releases them as crops demand, reducing fertilizer loss |
| ✓ OMRI Listed for organic use, CDFA Licensed (Fertilizer ID: 465901), GRAS (FDA 21 CFR) |
| ✓ Improves sandy & degraded soils that drain too fast, ideal for Westlands and Cross Valley operations |
| ✓ Available in Super Sacks, 50 lb paper bags, and 5 & 20 lb printed poly bags |
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ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
COTTON
GRAPES
CITRUS
WHEAT
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| Feature / Benefit |
Aqua-Drive™ |
KMI Zeolite 30-Mesh |
| Primary water benefit |
Gets water into hard-to-wet soils |
Holds water in root zone longer |
| Reduces irrigation runs needed |
✓ Yes, less pooling & runoff |
✓ Yes, extends moisture availability |
| Reduces fertilizer leaching |
Indirect |
✓ Direct, CEC captures & holds N, K, Ca |
| Application method |
Inject via drip, pivot, micro-sprinkler or tank mix |
Broadcast soil incorporation or banding |
| OMRI Listed for organic use |
Not listed |
✓ Yes, OMRI, CDFA, GRAS certified |
| Best use scenario in 2026 |
Hydrophobic soils, hardpan areas, water-repellent profiles where water pools or runs off before infiltrating |
Sandy / coarse-textured soils that drain too quickly; fields where fertilizer efficiency needs improvement |
| Used together |
✓ Highly complementary: Aqua-Drive gets water in; Zeolite holds it there. Together they maximize the value of every gallon of irrigation water applied. |
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April 2026 Water Strategy: With CVP south-of-Delta allocations at 20% and the Sierra snowpack essentially gone, growers who maximize the efficiency of every irrigation event will come out ahead. Starting Aqua-Drive injections now, at 2 qt/acre via your drip or pivot system, conditions your soil to accept and hold water more effectively through the critical summer months. Pairing Zeolite as a soil amendment on coarse or fast-draining fields builds long-term moisture and nutrient retention capacity. Ask Bryan about rates and program design specific to your crops and soil types.
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Questions? Let’s Talk.
Every operation is different. Whether it’s fertilizer programs, water management, or making sense of this month’s market data, reach out directly. B Mello Ag Services is here to help you navigate the 2026 season.
Soil & Tissue Analysis
Fertigation Programs
Water Scheduling
Commodity Insights
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This Month in American History
April 30, 1789, George Washington Takes the Oath of Office
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On April 30, 1789, George Washington was inaugurated as the first President of the United States on the balcony of Federal Hall in New York City, then the nation’s capital. Standing before a crowd of thousands, he placed his hand on a Bible and solemnly swore to “faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States” words that every president has repeated for more than 235 years since.
Washington had led the Continental Army through eight brutal years of war to win independence. He could have been made a king, many urged him to be, but he refused, choosing instead to serve as a president bound by a Constitution and to step aside voluntarily after two terms. In doing so, he set the most important democratic precedent in American history: that power belongs to the people, not the man.
His first inaugural address called upon “the sacred fire of liberty” entrusted to the American people, a flame kept burning in every generation by the men and women who chose to serve and protect it.
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The preservation of the sacred fire of liberty and the destiny of the republican model of government are justly considered as deeply, perhaps as finally, staked on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people.
George Washington
First Inaugural Address, April 30, 1789
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⚒
Army
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✈
Air Force & Space
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⚓
Navy & Marines
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🚢
Fire & Rescue
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🚒
Law Enforcement
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🚑
EMS & Medical
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To the Men & Women of Our Armed Forces and First Responders
From the fields of the Central Valley to the far corners of the world, your sacrifice, courage, and daily commitment make it possible for all of us to plant, grow, and build. We farm in freedom because you stand in its defense.
You are the reason we are Safe and Free.
B Mello Ag Services, Proudly American, Central Valley, California
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B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
April 2026 Economic Update · Published week of April 15, 2026
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(559) 816-3889
bryan@bmelloag.com
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This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Commodity prices, fuel prices, water allocations, and weather data are sourced from publicly available government and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to change. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult with a licensed commodity broker before making marketing decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: USDA AMS, Bureau of Reclamation, California DWR, EIA, AAA Fuel Prices, CBOT/USDA Futures Settlements (April 1, 2026), NBC Los Angeles, CalMatters, and industry market reports.
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