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Central Valley Agricultural Economic Intelligence
July 2026 Economic Update
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published week of July 15, 2026 • Commodity Prices • Milk & Dairy • Fuel • Water • Weather • Pistachio Crop
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♦ CORN: ~$4.38/BU (Jul) • $4.64 DEC ♦ WHEAT: $6.32/BU (Jul CBOT) ♦ MILK CLASS III: $16.15/CWT (2026) ♦ CA DIESEL: ~$6.07/GAL ♦ JULY WASDE: ALL-MILK LOWERED TO $20.00/CWT ♦ CVP S-OF-DELTA: 25% ♦ PISTACHIOS: OFF-YEAR + MARCH HEAT
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🍨
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Section 1
Milk Prices & Dairy Economic Outlook
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July 2026 prices reflect a well-supplied dairy market. The July 10 WASDE lowered nearly every price forecast as record milk output continues to grow, U.S. 2026 production is now pegged at 236.6 billion lbs with cow numbers raised again. Central Valley plants are running full, and summer heat is beginning to pressure component levels even as demand stays firm.
| Class I Milk |
| $15.91 |
| base skim · July 2026 advanced |
| ↓ Down $0.84 from June. July Class I advanced base skim price per USDA AMS. |
| Class III Milk |
| $16.15 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| ↓ Down $0.45. July WASDE cut the 2026 Class III forecast to $16.15/cwt on weaker cheese. Heavy milk supply keeps a firm ceiling on prices. |
| Class IV Milk |
| $18.40 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| ↓ Down $0.95. July WASDE trimmed Class IV to $18.40/cwt as butter and powder eased. Still the strongest of the milk classes. |
| All-Milk Price |
| $20.00 |
| per cwt · 2026 forecast |
| ↓ Down $0.70 to $20.00/cwt in the July WASDE as milk supply keeps growing. 2027 forecast at $19.85. Watch margins closely. |
| Component |
Price |
Market Note |
| Cheddar Cheese |
$1.4475/lb |
CME 40# blocks, early July. July WASDE cut the 2026 cheese forecast 4.0¢ to $1.5700/lb on heavy milk supply. |
| Butter |
$1.6372/lb |
July two-week average. WASDE trimmed the 2026 butter forecast 5.0¢ to $1.6900/lb. Ample cream supply keeping churns full. |
| Nonfat Dry Milk |
$1.500/lb |
CME cash, early July. July WASDE lowered the 2026 NDM forecast 8.5¢ to $1.6150/lb, the biggest cut of the report. |
| Dry Whey |
$0.6422/lb |
July two-week average. WASDE left the 2026 dry whey forecast unchanged at 66.0¢/lb, the only class not cut this month. |
| Retail Whole Milk |
~$3.65/gal |
National average holding near mid-2026 levels. Softer farm-gate prices have not yet reached the retail shelf. |
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📈 Dairy Economic Outlook
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Supply keeps growing. The July WASDE raised 2026 U.S. milk production to 236.6 billion lbs and lifted cow inventories again. That steady growth is what pulled Class III, Class IV, and the all-milk forecast lower this month. Central Valley plants are running near capacity through the summer.
Bottom line for producers: Margins are tight and getting tighter as milk checks ease. Watch feed costs, cheaper corn (see Section 2) is the main relief valve. Disciplined culling and component focus will protect margins into the fall.
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🏃 Demand & Export Bright Spots
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Exports are the bright spot. The July WASDE raised 2026 export forecasts on a skim-solids basis, driven by strong cheese and whey-containing shipments. New U.S. cheese capacity, including Land O’Lakes’ announced Tulare protein expansion, is helping move the growing milk supply into higher-value products.
Watch: Imports of butter and milk proteins were also raised, and global powder supply remains ample. HPAI in dairy herds remains a background risk for 2026 operations.
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Section 2
Grain & Commodity Futures
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CBOT settlements as of July 10, 2026. Large old-crop supplies and favorable Midwest growing weather are keeping row-crop prices under pressure, while crude has retreated to the low-$70s from the spring’s conflict-driven highs, easing input costs. Renewed Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz remain the key upside wildcard.
| Commodity |
Near-Month |
Deferred |
Market Note |
| 🌾 Corn (CBOT) |
$4.38/bu
Jul ’26 |
$4.52 Sep
$4.64 Dec |
↓ Pressured. Large old-crop carryout and a strong-rated new crop under near-ideal Midwest weather. Good news for Valley dairies: cheaper feed is the main margin relief this summer. |
| 🌾 Wheat (CBOT) |
$6.32/bu
Jul ’26 |
$6.55 Sep
$6.80 Dec |
↑ Firmer. Winter-wheat harvest pressure is being offset by solid export demand and short-covering. The best-performing of the major grains this summer. |
| 🌾 Wheat (HRW/KC) |
$6.30/bu
Jul ’26 |
$6.50 Sep
$6.75 Dec |
↑ Firm. Hard red winter tracking with Chicago. Harvest is wrapping up across the Plains; protein premiums holding on decent milling demand. |
| 🌎 Soybeans (CBOT) |
$11.97/bu
Jul ’26 |
$11.95 Aug
$11.98 Nov |
→ Rangebound. Holding near $12 on steady demand and a favorable weather forecast. Export pace and trade-policy headlines are the swing factors into the August pod-fill window. |
| 🌿 Cotton (ICE) |
66–70¢/lb
Dec ’26 |
Sideways |
→ Uncertain. Still a narrow band on soft demand and trade-policy noise. Kern and Kings county acres are set; watch the crop through peak summer heat and bloom. |
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Market Advisory: Crude has fallen back to the low-$70s/barrel (WTI) after the spring’s conflict-driven spike, pulling fuel and fertilizer costs off their highs, but renewed U.S.–Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz headlines keep upside risk in play. The July 10 WASDE lowered the 2026 all-milk price to $20.00/cwt and cut most grain and dairy forecasts on ample supply. This newsletter is for informational purposes only. Consult your commodity broker before making merchandising decisions.
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Section 3
Fuel Prices & Outlook
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California fuel prices have eased meaningfully from their spring records as crude has fallen back to the low-$70s/barrel. Diesel is off its highs but still the priciest in the nation, and structural pressures, refinery closures, CARB program costs, and the nation’s highest fuel taxes, keep Central Valley ag fuel expensive heading into peak irrigation-pumping season.
| ▼ OFF SPRING HIGHS |
| Diesel (Clear #2) |
| $6.07 |
| per gallon · CA avg wk Jul 6 |
| ↓ Down sharply from spring records as crude retreated. Still the highest state diesel price, ~$1.35/gal above the U.S. average (USDA/EIA). |
| Red Diesel (Ag Dyed) |
| Est. $5.15–$5.30 |
| per gallon · estimated Central Valley |
| ↓ Eased with clear diesel. Off-road dyed diesel runs roughly $0.90/gal below clear (no road taxes). Confirm with your supplier, pricing varies by volume and region. |
| Gasoline (Regular) |
| $5.18 |
| per gallon · CA avg (EIA Jul 6) |
| ↓ Lower. Down from spring highs; AAA CA average near $5.39. National avg about $3.78 (EIA). CARB blend rules and the highest state taxes keep California’s premium wide. |
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⚠ What’s Driving CA Prices
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Even after the spring pullback, California prices stay well above the U.S. average because of structural factors:
• Refinery closures removed roughly 18–21% of in-state refining capacity, a lasting supply squeeze.
• Crude relief: WTI back in the low-$70s has pulled diesel and gasoline off spring records.
• CARB programs: Cap-and-Invest plus the LCFS update that took effect July 1, 2026 add cost at the pump.
• Taxes: California’s ~$0.90/gal is still the highest in the nation.
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📊 30-Day Fuel Price Outlook
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The EIA expects Brent to average about $74/barrel in Q3 and slip toward $70 by Q4 2026 on building global inventories, a downward bias for diesel and gasoline barring a supply shock.
Central Valley diesel is likely to drift in the $5.75–$6.25/gal range through summer, with red diesel roughly $0.90 under that. The wildcard is the Strait of Hormuz: renewed Iran strikes could snap prices higher quickly.
Action: With crude soft, this is a reasonable window to lock a portion of your summer bulk diesel and fertilizer needs.
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Crude Oil Context. WTI opened near $71.77/barrel on July 10 and climbed back above $74 by July 13 as the U.S. carried out a fourth strike on Iran and Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed “until further notice.” Every $10/barrel move in crude is worth roughly $0.24/gal at the pump, so this remains the single biggest swing factor for your fuel budget.
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Section 4
Weather Outlook & Agricultural Relevance
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Mid-July brings peak summer heat to the Central Valley, with Fresno-area highs running from the upper 90s into the 100s and an excessive-heat stretch that opened the month. Combined with the early loss of the Sierra snowpack, evapotranspiration (ET) demand is at its seasonal maximum, making precise, efficient irrigation the single most important management task on the ranch right now.
| High Temp |
| 96–107°F |
| Fresno / CV mid-July range |
| Hot & sunny. Avg July high ~102°F. Excessive-heat episodes likely, peak ET and crop heat stress. |
| Low Temp |
| 62–75°F |
| overnight lows |
| Warm nights offer little heat relief and elevate pest pressure (NOW, mites). No frost concern this season. |
| Heat Risk |
| HIGH |
| excessive-heat episodes |
| Sunburn & stress. Protect exposed nut & citrus fruit; keep soil moisture ahead of demand. Fire-weather risk elevated. |
| Precipitation |
| 0.00 in |
| July outlook |
| July is the driest month of the year in the Valley, essentially zero rainfall. All crop water must come from irrigation. |
| Crop / Sector |
July Weather Relevance & Action Items |
| 🍐 Almonds / Pistachios |
Almond hull split is underway, time NOW and mite sprays to the split window. Pistachios are in nut fill / shell hardening, but this is an off year compounded by March heat, so the 2026 crop is light (see Product Spotlight). Peak ET now: run sustained irrigation and keep trees unstressed to protect next year’s buds. |
| 🍇 Grapes |
Approaching veraison. Manage canopy for shade to limit sunburn on clusters, and hold an even irrigation program, deficit strategies for wine grapes, full supply for table and raisin. Keep the powdery mildew program tight as clusters close and harvest nears. |
| 🪓 Walnuts |
Nut sizing and kernel fill. Watch the second flight of codling moth on degree-day accumulation and stay on husk fly. Sunburn risk is real on exposed nuts, maintain irrigation to prevent shrivel and hold kernel quality through the heat. |
| 🌾 Wheat / Small Grains |
Harvest is complete. Focus shifts to residue management and ground prep for fall rotations. A dry, hot summer is the ideal window to apply soil amendments and correct pH or salinity issues before the next crop goes in. |
| 🌿 Cotton / Field Crops |
Peak bloom and boll set in Kern and Kings county fields. Extreme heat can shed squares and young bolls, keep irrigation ahead of ET to avoid water stress during fruit set. Scout aggressively for lygus/plant bug and mites through the bloom period. |
| 🍊 Citrus |
Fruit is sizing through the heat. Protect against sunburn (kaolin clay, adequate canopy) and keep irrigation frequent and even to prevent fruit drop and splitting. Continue Asian Citrus Psyllid monitoring, report suspicious yellowing or die-back to CDFA immediately. |
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30-Day Outlook (July 15 – Aug 15): Hot and dry conditions will dominate, with repeated excessive-heat episodes and effectively zero rainfall, typical peak-summer Valley weather. Temperatures are likely to run at or above the ~102°F seasonal average. ET demand is at its yearly maximum, so irrigation efficiency directly determines both yield and cost. Use CIMIS ET data to match applications to demand and avoid both stress and waste (see Section 5).
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Section 5
Water Situation & District Updates
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The 2026 water year has settled into a two-track story. The Sierra snowpack melted out early after the warm spring, so there is essentially no snowmelt left to feed summer runoff, yet major reservoirs remain at or above average storage after coordinated capture of spring flows. On the strength of that storage, Reclamation raised south-of-Delta CVP allocations to 25% in May, a modest but welcome improvement.
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🚫 Snowpack: Gone for the Season
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After an early-melting, well-below-average snowpack, the Sierra is now essentially bare for the summer. There is no meaningful snowmelt left to supplement river flows, so from here forward crop water comes from stored reservoir supply, project deliveries, and groundwater.
The early melt traces back to the warm spring and the record-shattering March heat wave that also cut short the pistachio bloom. It is a reminder that a single hot month can reshape the entire water year.
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💧 Reservoir Storage: Silver Lining
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The silver lining is real: major reservoirs remain at or above average for mid-summer after aggressive capture of spring runoff, with San Luis and other project facilities in solid shape. That storage is exactly what let Reclamation raise south-of-Delta allocations to 25%.
The question for the rest of the season is drawdown pace through a long, hot, dry summer with no snowmelt behind it. Expect groundwater pumping to climb, a direct energy cost and an ongoing SGMA-compliance concern.
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| CVP Contractor / District |
2026 Allocation |
Notes |
| Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (N of Delta) |
100% ✓ |
Non-critical year. Settlement contract senior rights. Full supply secured. |
| M&I Contractors (N of Delta, Folsom) |
100% ✓ |
American River / Folsom Reservoir water service. Full allocation. |
| Friant Division (Millerton / Friant-Kern Canal) |
100% Class 1 ✓ |
First 800,000 AF fully allocated. Class 2 at 0%. Friant-Kern Canal water delivery running. |
| Irrigation Contractors (S of Delta), incl. Westlands |
25% ⚠ |
Raised to 25% on May 19 (from 20%) as reservoir storage improved. Westlands still calls the supply inadequate. Groundwater remains a major source. |
| M&I Contractors (S of Delta) |
65% public health |
Or historic use, whichever is greater. Public health and safety baseline secured. |
| Cross Valley Contractors (irrigation) |
15% ⚠ |
Critical shortage. Groundwater will be primary supply source for many operations. |
| Eastside Contractors (Central SJ Water, Stockton East) |
49,000 AF |
Increased from 0 to 49,000 AF this spring as storage improved. Still supplemented heavily with groundwater. |
| State Water Project (SWP), South |
50%* |
Raised well above the 10% initial allocation as storage improved through spring. *Confirm your district’s final Table A allocation with DWR. |
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📅 Water Release Dates & Run Times
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Friant-Kern Canal: Class 1 deliveries running full for peak summer demand. Contact Friant Water Authority for your district’s current run times and portal windows.
Madera Canal: Running with Friant Class 1 deliveries. Check Madera Irrigation District for July–August turn schedules.
Delta-Mendota Canal (DMC): Deliveries reflect the south-of-Delta 25% allocation. Confirm actual schedules with your water district and plan groundwater pumping accordingly.
Kings River / Tulare Lake Basin: Contact Consolidated Irrigation District, Kings River Conservation District, or your local district for current summer delivery windows and turn schedules.
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⚡ Key Water Management Priorities
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With the snowpack gone and reservoir drawdown now underway, irrigation efficiency is the financial and operational priority for the rest of the season:
• Irrigation scheduling efficiency: Use ET-based tools (CIMIS) to precisely match supply to crop demand. Avoid any waste.
• Groundwater strategy: Plan pumping now. Wells under increased demand valley-wide, coordinate with neighbors where possible.
• SGMA compliance: Increased groundwater use must be tracked per Sustainable Groundwater Management Act requirements.
• Drip & micro-efficiency: Every gallon counts. Check emitter function and distribution uniformity before peak demand.
• Crop prioritization: Growers with limited supply must prioritize water to highest-value perennial crops.
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Water Advisory: Reclamation raised south-of-Delta CVP allocations to 25% in May on the strength of above-average reservoir storage, and Eastside contractors moved from 0 to 49,000 AF. Even so, with no snowpack behind summer flows, 2026 remains a supply-constrained year that will lean heavily on stored water and groundwater. Reclamation continues to monitor hydrology through summer. Contact your local water district for the most current delivery schedules and allocation status.
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Section 6
Product Spotlight
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Bug and pest pressure is running high across the Valley this season, and with a lighter pistachio crop every pound of yield matters more. This month we’re spotlighting two products that protect what you have and support the crop through peak heat: JABB 2.5 & 120, a Beauveria bassiana biological insecticide that controls a broad range of insects with no resistance risk, and Premium 95™ Solution Grade HA from Diamond K Gypsum, a soluble gypsum-plus-humic-acid blend that keeps your peak-summer irrigation moving into the root zone.
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🍌 2026 Pistachio Crop Watch
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A lighter crop this year, but a strong setup for 2027. California’s pistachios are in a natural off year of the alternate-bearing cycle, and a record-warm March hit right at bloom, a one-two punch that has trimmed yields, especially south of Fresno County. Some grower estimates put total receipts as low as 700–900 million lbs, potentially less than half of the record 2025 crop, and with Turkey down and Iran struggling, global supply is expected to be tight.
The good news, per Pacific Nut Producer: growers and processors view 2026 as an anomaly and expect an excellent 2027 yield. That makes proper soil amendments this off-year just as important as harvest, use the lighter crop load and the post-harvest window to correct soil moisture, salinity, and nutrient-holding capacity so trees enter next spring healthy and primed to set a heavy “on” crop.
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JABB of the Carolinas · Superior Soil Supplements
JABB 2.5 & 120
Biological Pest Control
Beauveria bassiana, SPE-120 (OMRI Organic) & SBb 2.5 (Conventional)
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★ Pest Shield
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Active Ingredient
B. bassiana 1%
1×10⁸ cfu/mL
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Application Rate
1 oz / Acre
Foliar, drench, in-furrow or seed
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Pest Mortality
50–90%
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Pre-Harvest Interval
Zero (0)
No resistance development
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JABB is a naturally occurring entomopathogenic fungus that infects and kills chewing and biting insects, without the resistance risk of chemical insecticides. With pest pressure running high this season, a preventative or curative JABB program helps protect nut set and yield while leaving your beneficial insects unharmed.
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| ✓ Broad-spectrum control, aphids, thrips, whiteflies, beetles & other chewing/biting insects |
| ✓ No resistance development, insects cannot adapt to the living fungus |
| ✓ Safe for beneficials, lacewings, predatory mites & parasitic wasps unharmed (true IPM) |
| ✓ Two formulations, SPE-120 OMRI organic & SBb 2.5 for conventional |
| ✓ Endophytic colonization also lifts vigor, chlorophyll & heat/drought stress tolerance |
| ✓ Just 1 oz/acre, zero pre-harvest interval, foliar, soil drench, in-furrow or seed |
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ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
WALNUTS
GRAPES
CITRUS
COTTON
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Diamond K Gypsum · Solution Grade
Premium 95™ Solution Grade HA
Soluble Gypsum + Humic Acids
95% Calcium Sulfate Dihydrate + 0.75% Humic Acids, Wettable Powder
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Calcium Sulfate Dihydrate
95.00%
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Humic Acids (Leonardite)
0.75%
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Calcium (Ca) / Sulfur (S)
22.1% / 17.6%
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Fineness
92% <325 mesh
Dissolves for fertigation
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Premium 95 combines Diamond K’s ultra-pure soluble gypsum with humic acids in a wettable powder that runs straight through your drip or fertigation system. In peak summer it keeps low-solute canal and well water infiltrating, reclaims sodium, and supports micronutrient uptake when trees are working hardest through nut fill.
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| ✓ Dissolves cleanly for drip, micro-jet, foliar & fertigation (92% passing 325 mesh) |
| ✓ Improves penetration of low-solute water, adds calcium to “pure” canal/well water |
| ✓ Reclaims sodic soils, ultra-soluble calcium replaces & leaches sodium |
| ✓ Humic acids aid micronutrient uptake & root vigor through summer heat stress |
| ✓ Purest mined gypsum (95% CaSO₄·2H₂O), lower rates than typical western sources |
| ✓ Compatible with JABB, run through the drip while JABB goes on foliar/soil |
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ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
WALNUTS
GRAPES
CITRUS
COTTON
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| Feature / Benefit |
JABB 2.5 & 120 |
Premium 95™ HA |
| Primary role |
Biological pest control |
Soil & irrigation-water conditioning |
| Reduces insect pressure |
✓ Yes, 50–90% mortality |
Not a pesticide |
| Improves water infiltration |
Indirect (root health) |
✓ Direct, soluble calcium |
| OMRI organic option |
✓ Yes, SPE-120 listed |
Verify blend on label |
| Application method |
Foliar, soil drench, in-furrow or seed (1 oz/ac) |
Solutionized through drip / fertigation |
| Best use in July |
Knock down rising aphid, thrips, whitefly & mite pressure while sparing beneficials |
Keep peak-summer irrigation infiltrating; manage sodium & heat stress during nut fill |
| Used together |
✓ Compatible: JABB lists humic acids & biostimulants as compatible partners. Run Premium 95 through the drip and apply JABB as a foliar or soil treatment, protect yield and build soil at the same time. |
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July 2026 Pest & Heat Strategy: With insect pressure climbing and trees under peak-summer stress, pair protection with performance. Apply JABB at 1 oz/acre in the early morning or evening, targeting leaf undersides, to knock down aphids, thrips, whiteflies and mites while sparing your beneficial insects, choose SPE-120 for organic blocks and SBb 2.5 for conventional (apply below 85°F for best spore survival). Run Premium 95™ Solution Grade HA through your drip to keep low-solute summer water infiltrating, reclaim sodium, and feed micronutrient uptake during nut fill. The two are compatible, JABB lists humic acids and biostimulants as compatible partners. Ask Bryan about rates and a program built for your crops, soils and pest pressure.
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Questions? Let’s Talk.
Every operation is different. Whether it’s fertilizer programs, water management, or making sense of this month’s market data, reach out directly. B Mello Ag Services is here to help you navigate the 2026 season.
Soil & Water Analysis
Custom Blends
Organic & Biological Programs
Commodity Insights
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This Month in American History
July 20, 1969, Apollo 11 and the First Steps on the Moon
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On July 20, 1969, the Apollo 11 lunar module Eagle touched down on the Sea of Tranquility, and Neil Armstrong became the first human being to set foot on the Moon, followed minutes later by Buzz Aldrin, while Michael Collins orbited overhead. An estimated 600 million people around the world watched or listened as an American flag was planted on another world.
The landing fulfilled the challenge President John F. Kennedy had issued in 1961, to land a man on the Moon and return him safely before the decade was out. It was carried on the shoulders of roughly 400,000 American engineers, scientists, technicians, machinists, seamstresses, and factory workers whose ordinary, disciplined labor added up to something extraordinary.
The plaque the crew left behind reads: “Here men from the planet Earth first set foot upon the Moon, July 1969 A.D. We came in peace for all mankind.” It stands as a testament to American courage, ingenuity, and the willingness to attempt hard things, the same spirit that clears ground, plants orchards, and builds a life in the Central Valley.
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“
That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.
Neil Armstrong
Sea of Tranquility, July 20, 1969
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⚒
Army
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✈
Air Force & Space
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⚓
Navy & Marines
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🚢
Fire & Rescue
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🚒
Law Enforcement
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🚑
EMS & Medical
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To the Men & Women of Our Armed Forces and First Responders
From the fields of the Central Valley to the far corners of the world, your sacrifice, courage, and daily commitment make it possible for all of us to plant, grow, and build. We farm in freedom because you stand in its defense.
You are the reason we are Safe and Free.
B Mello Ag Services, Proudly American, Central Valley, California
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Every month we pull together the numbers that actually move your operation, milk, feed, fuel, water, and the crops in the ground, so you don’t have to chase them across a dozen reports. When the markets turn, you’ll hear it from us first. That’s the promise behind every B Mello Economic Update.
Proudly American · Rooted in the American Dream
Bryan Mello
B Mello Ag Services, Central Valley, California
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B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
July 2026 Economic Update · Published week of July 15, 2026
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(559) 816-3889
bryan@bmelloag.com
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This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Commodity prices, fuel prices, water allocations, and weather data are sourced from publicly available government and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to change. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult with a licensed commodity broker before making marketing decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: USDA July 2026 WASDE (released July 10), USDA AMS & advanced/class prices, Cheese Reporter, CBOT/ICE futures settlements (July 10, 2026), EIA & AAA fuel prices, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, California DWR, NWS/AccuWeather, Pacific Nut Producer, and industry market reports.
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