Name: B. Mello Ag Services
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Weekly Energy Update · Week 38

Fuel & Energy Report

B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA

Published Monday, September 14, 2026 • Week in Review: September 7–13 • Forecast: September 14–20

♦ CA DIESEL $8.137 (▲33¢ WK · NEW RECORD) ♦ ALL 9 VALLEY METROS SET RECORDS ♦ CA REGULAR $5.988 (▲14¢ WK) ♦ US DIESEL $5.967 (▲37¢ WK) ♦ WTI $100.05 (▲9.7% WK, ▼FRI) ♦ BRENT $104.61 ♦ GCC–IRAN TALKS IN OMAN TODAY

All Fuel Reports

📈 This Week’s Call

Another record, and every Valley metro with it. But three things broke our way Friday, and we think the wholesale top is close.

Last Monday we told you we expected California to print an $8 handle this week. It did, Saturday, and AAA closed Sunday at $8.1367, another all-time record, up 32.6 cents on the week. All nine Central Valley metros we track set records on the same day, the first time that has happened. We also called the EIA print at $7.72 to $7.92 and it came in at $7.764, and CA regular at $5.85 to $6.02 against an actual $5.9877. Both good. Two we under-called: AAA diesel ran 3.7 cents past the top of our range, and WTI settled $100.05 against a $87–$99 call. Now the part that matters for your next fill. Friday was the first genuinely two-sided day since August. Crude fell, WTI down 2.4%, Brent down 2.8%, after Iranian state media said Tehran will meet Gulf states in Oman. Those diplomats sit down today. Distillate inventories built 2.1 million barrels, the second straight build, which is the exact trigger we told you last week would invalidate our call. And refiners are running at 97.8% of capacity, flat out into a record margin, which is how record margins die. Retail still has last week’s wholesale move to absorb, so we are calling higher into midweek. But we think the peak prints Tuesday or Wednesday, and we are no longer telling you to buy past October.

⛽

Section 1

Last Week at the Pump

EIA’s survey for the week ending Monday, September 7 put California on-highway diesel at $7.764, up 54.6 cents, and California regular at $5.678, up 15.8 cents. AAA’s Sunday, September 13 read is higher again: California diesel $8.1367, up 32.6 cents on the week and a new all-time record. Regular finished at $5.9877, up 14.1 cents. Diesel is up $1.24 in a month and $2.98 in a year. The difference from last week is that the national number stopped helping: US diesel rose 36.8 cents to $5.967, so this is no longer California going it alone. The California premium is $1.80, and the rest of the West Coast moved 44 cents. Everyone is paying now. We are just paying more.

CA Diesel

$8.137

statewide · AAA 9/13

↑ 33¢ wk · new record. Up $2.98 in a year.

CA Regular

$5.988

statewide avg · AAA 9/13

↑ 14¢ wk · 45¢ under the 2022 record.

WTI Crude

$100.05

front month · Fri 9/11

↑ 9.7% wk · but ↓ 2.4% Friday on Oman.

ULSD Crack

~$108

per bbl · at Fri 9/11 settles

↑ at the record · normal is $15–$25.

Central Valley & Reference Markets, On-Highway Diesel

Market

Diesel

Note, and where regular sits

Bakersfield

$7.999

▲ 39¢

Cheapest diesel in the Valley and the only Valley metro still under $8, by a penny and a half. A record high anyway, taking out the April 11 mark. 14¢ under the state average. Regular $5.911. AAA, September 13.

Merced

$8.009

▲ 35¢

Record high. Smallest 30-day move on this table at $1.01, it led in August and has lagged ever since. Second-cheapest Valley diesel. Regular $5.879. AAA, September 13.

Modesto

$8.065

▲ 33¢

Record high. Regular $5.816, still the cheapest gasoline among the Valley metros we track, 17¢ under the state average. AAA, September 13.

Stockton–Lodi

$8.080

▲ 35¢

Record high. North Valley hauling reference. Up $1.40 in thirty days. Regular $5.848. AAA, September 13.

Madera–Chowchilla

$8.088

▲ 39¢

Record high, it cleared the April 10 mark by 35¢. Most expensive gasoline in the Valley at $5.978. AAA, September 13.

Fresno

$8.126

▲ 32¢

Record high and a penny under the state average. Up $1.36 in a month. Regular $5.958. AAA, September 13.

Hanford–Corcoran

$8.164

▲ 29¢

Record high, but the smallest weekly move on this table after leading the entire state last week. Still the worst 30-day move anywhere in the Valley: up $1.59. Regular $5.936. AAA, September 13.

Sacramento

$8.165

▲ 43¢

Record high and the biggest weekly move in the Valley at 42.6¢. Above the state average. Regular $5.943. AAA, September 13.

Visalia–Tulare

$8.170

▲ 35¢

Record high and the most expensive diesel in the Valley, 3.4¢ above the state average, second week running. Up $1.48 in a month. Regular $5.931. AAA, September 13.

California avg.

$8.137

▲ 33¢

AAA, September 13, all-time state record, set today. EIA’s week-ending 9/7 survey printed $7.764, up 54.6¢. Regular $5.988. Diesel is up $1.24 in a month and $2.98 in a year.

West Coast less CA

$6.314

▲ 44¢

EIA, week ending 9/7. Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona, and this week they moved 44 cents with us instead of a penny. The divergence we flagged last week has closed. This is now a national move, not a California one.

U.S. avg.

$5.967

▲ 37¢

EIA, week ending 9/7, the DOE figure your hauler’s surcharge runs off, and this week it rose 36.8¢. National regular $4.313 (AAA, 9/13), up 13¢ in a week. The California diesel premium is $1.80 a gallon.

Diesel detail: EIA’s survey for the week ending September 7 put California on-highway diesel at $7.764, up 54.6 cents, against a national average of $5.967, up 36.8 cents. That is a $1.80 California premium, wider than last week’s $1.62, and the widest we have carried. Off-road dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, roughly a 72.6¢ per gallon spread before sales tax. At Visalia’s $8.170 pump that puts dyed product near $7.44 a gallon, about $7,440 to fill a 1,000-gallon on-farm tank. Price your rack and cardlock against these numbers, not the sign on the highway.

For your surcharge tables. The DOE national on-highway diesel average of $5.967 for the week of September 7 governs fuel surcharges effective September 9 through 15, and this week it finally moved with you instead of against you, up 36.8 cents. Last week we flagged a real hole in your margin because the national index fell while California climbed. That gap closed. If you bill surcharges, this is the week your recovery catches up; if you pay them, expect the bill. Either way, the fix is the same as it was: index to the EIA California series or a West Coast rack, get it in writing, and stop letting a Gulf Coast number price a Central Valley load.

🔮

Section 2

The Week Ahead: Our Forecast

For the week of September 14 through 20. WTI finished Friday at $100.05 and Brent at $104.61, up 9.7% and 8.7% on the week, but both fell on Friday itself. Heating oil, the paper barrel behind your diesel, settled at $4.9593 a gallon, up 15% in a month and 117% in a year, which keeps the diesel crack near its September 3 record around $108 a barrel. The Los Angeles CARB diesel spot print for the week ending September 4 came in at $5.102, up 57.2 cents in seven days, that is last week’s wholesale, and it has not finished landing at your rack. So we are still calling higher early. What is new is that the supply side finally gave us something on the other side of the ledger.

Fuel

Expected Range

Direction

CA On-Highway Diesel

$8.14 – $8.38

▲ Higher, then flat, biased to the lower half. Another 0 to 24¢, and we think the weekly high prints Tuesday or Wednesday. The wholesale that drives this week is already priced; what comes after it is softer.

CA Regular Gasoline

$5.99 – $6.15

▲ Higher, 0 to 16¢. Post-Labor Day demand is softening and gasoline stocks built 1.3 million barrels. The state record is $6.4375 from June 2022; we are still not calling that.

EIA Print, Tue 9/15

CA diesel $8.05 – $8.25

▲ Sharply higher, a 29 to 49¢ jump on the week. EIA has been running about a nickel under AAA at the same date. This is where our call gets graded. We nailed it last week at $7.764 inside a $7.72–$7.92 range.

Central Valley Retail

Diesel 14¢ under to 4¢ over state avg.

▲ The whole Valley is at $8 now. Bakersfield is the only metro under it, by a penny and a half, and it will not hold. Visalia and Sacramento stay above the state average while walnut hauling runs.

Crude (WTI)

$93 – $104

↔ Two-sided, first time in a month. Today’s Oman meeting is the whole trade. A workable Hormuz framework takes $7 out of this fast; a walkout plus another export strike puts $104 back on the table by Wednesday.

▲ Pushing Prices Up

Last week’s wholesale has not landed. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot printed $5.102 for the week ending September 4, up 57.2 cents in seven days. California retail runs one to two weeks behind that. Your rack is still catching up.

Saudi barrels are gone. Saudi crude production averaged 6.24 million barrels a day in August, against 8.14 million the month before. The kingdom also shut its East-West crude pipeline as a precaution after repeated attacks.

A second chokepoint is in play. Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly advanced to Yemen’s Perim Island, at the mouth of Bab al-Mandeb. Hormuz was one strait. This would be two.

▼ Holding Prices Down

Two straight distillate builds. Inventories rose 2.1 million barrels in the week ending September 4 after 0.8 million the week before. That is the exact trigger we told you last week would invalidate our call. Stocks are still 13% under the five-year average, but the direction flipped.

Refiners are chasing the margin. US refineries ran at 97.8% of capacity and lifted distillate output to 5.3 million barrels a day. A $108 crack is an invitation, and every refiner on earth has accepted it.

Demand is cracking. The IEA now forecasts a 2.5 million barrel a day contraction in 2026 demand, the largest annual decline since Covid. OPEC cut its own growth forecast for a fifth straight time.

Our read: Two weeks ago we called a top and got run over. Last week we said buy the season and do not call a top, that was right, and the $8 handle arrived on schedule. This week we are saying something narrower and we want to be precise about it: we think the wholesale top is in or within days, and retail follows it about a week later. That is not a call for cheap fuel. It is a call that the next 30 cents is more likely to be the last 30 cents than the first of another dollar. Here is the honest reasoning. We told you last week that two consecutive distillate builds would invalidate us. We got them. Add refiners running at 97.8% into a record margin, an IEA demand forecast that just went sharply negative, and Gulf diplomats sitting down with Iran in Oman today, and the four pillars holding this market up are all showing cracks at once. What we’d do with that: finish covering walnuts and whatever almond hauling is left, because this week’s wholesale is already spent. Then stop. Do not extend past October, do not lock a term price at $8.14, and keep your basis in writing so you can move when this rolls. What would prove us wrong: the Oman meeting collapsing, a strike on Saudi or Emirati export infrastructure, or a third week of distillate draws. Any of those and we are looking at $8.50 and we will say so. Watch the crack and the Wednesday distillate line, not the crude headline. It has been the better signal all summer and it still is.

⚡

Section 3

Your Other Energy Costs

Seventeen days of summer tariff left. PG&E’s agricultural summer season runs June 1 through September 30, with the peak window at 5–8 p.m. every day of the year, holidays included, and no partial-peak on the ag time-of-use schedules. October 1 is when that block gets cheaper. Natural gas fell to a three-week low this week and propane went the other way hard, read propane, because the number moved 15 cents while stocks were building.

Input

Where It Is

What It Means for You

Electricity
(pump power)

Steady
~35¢/kWh blended

Still the cheapest thing on this page, and the gap got wider again. No PG&E rate change lands this week. Summer season on the agricultural schedules (AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA) runs through September 30, seventeen days, with the 5–8 p.m. peak applying daily. PG&E’s 2027–2030 General Rate Case is still pending at the CPUC, with a decision expected in the first quarter of 2027; PG&E has asked for an 8% test-year increase and 6.1% in each of 2028, 2029 and 2030. EIA also now forecasts record US electricity generation in 2026 and 2027. The 35¢ figure is a blended statewide estimate, pull your own tariff before you budget against it.

Natural Gas
(Henry Hub)

Falling
$2.83/MMBtu

Front-month settled Friday at $2.831, a three-week low and 3.7% below a year ago, still the only energy input on this page cheaper than last September. Utilities injected 40 Bcf for the week ending September 4 against an expected 31, lifting stocks to 3.254 trillion cubic feet, 4.8% above the five-year average. Lower 48 production is running 112.9 Bcfd. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook has 2026 Henry Hub at $3.44. If you can run a dryer, dehydrator or pump on gas instead of diesel, do it. Gas is down on the year; diesel is up 117% on the paper barrel.

Propane

Up hard
~84¢/gal Mont Belvieu

Last week we told you the easy window had shut. It did. Mont Belvieu spot ran near 84 cents Friday, up about 17.6% in a month and 19% on the year, from the mid-to-high 60s two weeks ago. Here is the part worth understanding: stocks actually built 3.1 million barrels in the week ending September 4 and sit 27% above the five-year average. So this is not a domestic shortage, it is export demand and the global energy complex pulling propane up with everything else. That matters because it means a full tank farm will not protect you. If frost protection, dryer or heater gallons are still unbooked, book them.

LCFS &
Cap-and-Invest

Unchanged
$32.48/ton allowance

No new data this week. The last cap-and-invest auction, settled August 19 with results published August 26, cleared current-vintage allowances at $32.48, up from $28.81 in May, with all 49,016,180 allowances sold against a 2026 annual reserve price of $27.94. LCFS credits averaged near $63 a ton in the first quarter of 2026 and have stayed firm, with deficits exceeding credits for the first time in over four years. Diesel generates more deficits per gallon than gasoline. The next auction is in November. These costs do not fall when crude falls. They are the permanent floor under the $1.80 California premium.

Off-Road /
Dyed Diesel

Following on-highway
~73¢ tax spread

Dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise (raised from 46.6¢ on July 1) and the 24.4¢ federal excise, about 72.6¢ a gallon before sales tax. That spread is fixed, so your bulk delivered price tracks on-highway in both directions. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot printed $5.102 for the week ending September 4, up 57.2¢ from $4.530, exactly the jump we told you was coming. The next weekly print lands September 16. Get the rack basis on your next delivery ticket in writing. At these levels a 5-cent basis argument on a 5,000-gallon fill is $250, and when this rolls over your supplier will come down slower than they went up.

Diesel pumping versus electric, at this week’s prices. The gap widened for the fourth straight week. A diesel irrigation engine burns roughly 0.055 gallons per horsepower-hour at load. A 100-HP unit running eight hours is about 44 gallons a day, at Fresno’s $8.126 that is $358 a day, against $344 last week and $320 the week before. The same duty on an electric motor at 83 kW is 664 kWh; at 35 cents a kilowatt-hour that is $232. That is $126 a day, per pump, for running the wrong one, up from $112 seven days ago. Over a 30-day month on three pumps it is about $11,300. Those figures use a 35-cent blended rate and standard engine fuel maps; pull your own tariff and your own engine curve before you commit, because both vary by operation.

What this week cost a 10,000-gallon harvest program. Statewide diesel rose 32.6 cents in seven days. On 10,000 gallons that is $3,262, with no change in what you actually did. In Sacramento, where the move was 42.6 cents, the same volume cost $4,261 more than a week ago. Step back to thirty days and the statewide number is $12,410 on the same 10,000 gallons. That is the whole argument for moving load to the meter: your fuel line has taken a twelve-thousand-dollar swing in a month, and your power bill has not moved.

📰

Section 4

News Behind the Numbers

Global · Highest Impact

Gulf Diplomats Meet Iran in Oman Today. That Meeting Is Your Fuel Price.

Iranian state media said late in the week that Tehran will meet Gulf states in Oman, and foreign ministers from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council are expected to sit down with their Iranian counterpart today, Monday, September 14, to discuss a temporary arrangement for managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That single headline was enough to knock 2.4% off WTI and 2.8% off Brent on Friday after a week in which crude had run up 9.7%. Iran and Oman agreed on a geographic route back in August; the fight since has been over Tehran’s insistence on charging transit fees, which the US and the Gulf states reject. What to do with it: nothing dramatic, but know that a market this leveraged to one meeting moves violently in both directions. If a framework comes out of Oman, crude drops fast and California follows, slowly, as always, over two to three weeks. If the talks break, the barrels that came out of Saudi production in August are still gone and we go higher.

Refining · The Turn We Have Been Waiting For

Distillate Built Twice in a Row. Refiners Are Running at 97.8%.

EIA’s report for the week ending September 4 put distillate inventories up 2.1 million barrels, on top of a 0.8 million barrel build the week before. US refineries ran at 97.8% of operable capacity, about as hard as this country’s refining fleet physically goes, and lifted distillate production to 5.3 million barrels a day. Crude stocks slipped 0.4 million barrels to 424.1 million, dead on the five-year average. Why we are telling you this before we tell you anything bullish: a record crack is a signal, and refiners respond to signals. At $108 a barrel of margin, every unit that can make diesel is making diesel, and that is the mechanism that ends a spike like this one. Distillate stocks are still 13% under the five-year average and EIA expects them below 100 million barrels this month, so nobody should confuse this with comfort. But the direction of the number changed, and we said last week that was our trigger.

California · Record

$8.1367, and All Nine Valley Metros Set Records on the Same Day

AAA’s Sunday read put the California statewide diesel average at $8.1367, an all-time record set today, up 32.6 cents on the week and $2.98 on the year. Last week six of the nine Central Valley metros we track set records. This week all nine did: Bakersfield, Merced, Modesto, Stockton–Lodi, Madera–Chowchilla, Fresno, Hanford–Corcoran, Sacramento and Visalia–Tulare. Bakersfield at $7.9986 is the only one still under $8, by a penny and a half. On EIA’s week-ending September 7 numbers, California diesel sits $1.80 above the national average and $1.45 above the rest of the West Coast. The structural reasons have not changed and are not going to: 48.2¢ state excise, cap-and-invest allowances, LCFS deficits, a fuel spec nobody else makes, and roughly 17.5% of in-state refining capacity retired or exiting between the Phillips 66 Los Angeles shutdown and Valero’s departure from Benicia. For planning: the floor under California diesel is permanently higher than it was two years ago. Budget your 2027 fuel line off a California number, not a national forecast.

Central Valley · Harvest Now

Walnuts Came Early. Pistachios Barely Came at All.

Walnut harvest is running seven to ten days ahead of normal, with early varieties starting the second week of September, meaning it started last week, into the worst diesel prices in California history. Almonds are on a crop USDA put at 2.70 billion pounds with hauling continuing into October. Pistachios are the other story: a warm spring above roughly 85 degrees during bloom wrecked pollination across much of the southern San Joaquin Valley, and some estimates now put the 2026 crop near a third of last year’s record, with high blank counts and many growers consolidating to a single shake. Read that through the price table. Hanford–Corcoran led the whole state last week at 75 cents and this week posted the smallest Valley move at 28.9 cents, a light pistachio crop is fewer loads out of that corridor, and you can see it in the fuel price. Sacramento and Stockton took the biggest moves instead, which is walnuts coming north. What the week did to a load: a 400-mile round trip at 6 mpg burns about 67 gallons. At Fresno’s $8.126 that is $544, against $521 seven days ago and $453 a month ago, $91 a load in thirty days. If you are quoting custom hauling on a flat rate for walnuts, requote it today.

✅

Section 5

What To Do This Week

✓ Action Items

1. Finish covering walnuts, then stop. Buy what gets you through walnut hauling and whatever almond loads are left, this week’s wholesale is already spent and the rack has not caught up. But do not extend past October and do not sign a term price at $8.14. We think the wholesale top is in or close. Cover the work in front of you, not the calendar.

2. Requote every flat-rate hauling agreement today. A 400-mile round trip is up $91 a load in thirty days and $23 in the last seven. Walnuts came in seven to ten days early and the trucks are already moving. If you quoted a flat rate in August, you are hauling at a loss right now.

3. Book propane even though the tanks are full. Mont Belvieu is near 84 cents, up 17.6% in a month, while US stocks built 3.1 million barrels to 27% above the five-year average. That tells you the price is coming from export demand, not from a shortage, which means healthy inventories will not save you. Frost protection, dryer and heater gallons.

4. Get the rack basis in writing on every fill, and add a downside clause. At $8.14 a nickel of basis on a 5,000-gallon delivery is $250. More important this week: if we are right that this rolls over, written basis is what lets you capture the decline instead of waiting for your supplier to volunteer it.

5. Run electric, and move everything you can out of 5–8 p.m. The spread is now about $126 a day per 100-HP pump in favor of the meter, roughly $11,300 a month across three pumps. Seventeen days of PG&E summer tariff remain; the peak window applies daily including holidays, and it ends September 30. It is a controller setting, not a capital project.

👀 What We’re Watching This Week

Monday, Sep. 14: Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers meet their Iranian counterpart in Oman on a temporary Hormuz shipping arrangement. This is the single most important thing on the calendar, it is the difference between $93 and $104 crude. Tuesday, Sep. 15: EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel price survey. Our call is California diesel $8.05–$8.25. This is where we get graded. Wednesday, Sep. 16: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, go straight to the distillate line. A third build and we are confident the top is behind us; a draw and we are wrong. Also the weekly spot series with the Los Angeles CARB diesel print. Thursday, Sep. 17: EIA natural gas storage report. Friday, Sep. 18: Baker Hughes rig count. Ongoing: daily Hormuz transit counts, the status of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, and Houthi movement around Perim Island and Bab al-Mandeb. Local: seventeen days of PG&E ag summer tariff, walnut harvest running early, and whether Bakersfield holds under $8 (we do not think it will).

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B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA

Weekly Energy Update · Week 38 · Published Monday, September 14, 2026

Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports, field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.

(559) 816-3889 · bryan@bmelloag.com

This Weekly Energy Update is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Fuel, power and commodity prices are sourced from publicly available market and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to rapid change; figures are approximate and forward-looking statements reflect our current market view, not a guarantee. Retail averages will differ from your rack, cardlock or contract pricing. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult a licensed commodity broker before making marketing or hedging decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.

Data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly retail gasoline and diesel price survey for the week ending September 7, 2026, released September 9, 2026 (next release September 15, 2026), including the U.S., West Coast PADD 5, West Coast less California and California series; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released September 10, 2026 covering the week ending September 4, 2026, including crude, distillate, gasoline and propane inventories and refinery utilization; EIA weekly Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur CARB diesel spot price series for the week ending September 4, 2026, released September 10, 2026 (next release September 16, 2026); EIA September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released September 9, 2026, including the second-half 2026 Brent forecast, the distillate inventory outlook, the 2027 US crude production forecast and the Henry Hub price forecast; EIA press release of September 9, 2026 on record US electricity generation in 2026 and 2027; AAA Fuel Prices national, California statewide and California metro averages as of September 13, 2026; Trading Economics crude, Brent, natural gas, RBOB gasoline, heating oil and Mont Belvieu propane quotations for Friday, September 11, 2026 and accompanying market commentary on the Oman talks, the IEA demand revision and OPEC’s demand-growth forecast; reporting on the US ULSD crack spread record of $108.02 a barrel set September 3, 2026; EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update and working gas in storage for the week ending September 4, 2026; CARB Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit transfer data and the California cap-and-invest auction results released August 26, 2026, together with the 2026 annual reserve price notice; California Department of Tax and Fee Administration motor vehicle fuel and diesel excise tax rates effective July 1, 2026; PG&E agricultural electric rate schedules AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA and the pending 2027–2030 General Rate Case at the CPUC; reporting on the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery shutdown and Valero’s Benicia refinery exit; and USDA, California Walnut Board and industry reporting on the 2026 California almond, walnut and pistachio crops and harvest progress.

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