A Labor Day thank-you to the men and women of agriculture, the armed forces and our first responders. Then the market: US–Iran strikes resumed September 1, crude ran up 9%, the diesel crack set a record above $106 a barrel, and California diesel closed at an all-time high of $7.8105 with six of nine Valley metros setting records.
Published September 7, 2026 · Week 37 · Week in review Aug 31–Sep 6
In this issue California diesel prices · gasoline prices · crude oil · Brent crude · WTI crude · refinery margins · Strait of Hormuz · OPEC · EIA inventory data · carbon and LCFS costs · California fuel taxes · natural gas · electricity rates · harvest fuel budgeting
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Weekly Energy Update · Week 37
Fuel & Energy Report
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published Monday, September 7, 2026 • Week in Review: August 31–September 6 • Forecast: September 7–13
♦ CA DIESEL $7.811 (▲52¢ WK · ALL-TIME RECORD) ♦ CA REGULAR $5.847 (▲17¢ WK) ♦ US DIESEL $5.599 (▼5¢ WK) ♦ WTI $91.48 (▲9% WK) ♦ BRENT $96.28 ♦ ULSD CRACK RECORD $106 ♦ US–IRAN STRIKES RESUMED
Today is Labor Day, and we are publishing anyway, because when duty calls you don’t take days off. The almonds do not stop splitting for a holiday. The pumps do not shut off. The hullers run, the trucks roll, and somebody is sitting in a cab before sunrise because there is a job that needs doing and it is theirs to do.
To the men and women of agriculture — the growers, the irrigators, the equipment operators, the truckers, the crews in the field and the hands in the shop keeping all of it running — thank you. You feed this country. Most of you will never hear it said out loud, so we are saying it here.
To the men and women of our armed forces, at home and standing watch a long way from it: thank you. Freedom is not an idea. It is a duty somebody has to carry, and you carry it.
To our first responders — the firefighters, the deputies, the medics, the volunteers who leave dinner on the table when the tone drops — thank you for every day you spend running toward what the rest of us are running from.
We are thankful to live in this country. We stand for freedom and the American way, and we try to do our part to be worth it. We are blessed with the opportunities God has given us, and through Him we find the strength and the courage to see them through.
Work is not a burden. It is a privilege — and we have never once taken it for granted.
Happy Labor Day from all of us at B Mello Ag Services
📈 This Week’s Call
We called the top. We were wrong by 39 cents. The war came back and California diesel set an all-time record — and it is not done.
Last Monday we told you the climb was ending. We gave you a range of $7.30 to $7.38 on California diesel and told you to buy two weeks, not two months. That call was wrong. AAA closed Sunday at $7.8105 — up 51.6 cents on the week and an all-time record for this state. We also called WTI $79 to $88 and biased lower; it settled Friday at $91.48, up better than 9% on the week. The one we got right was the EIA print: we said $7.14 to $7.26 and it came in at $7.218. Here is what changed. On September 1 US forces struck Iranian targets again after a month of quiet, Iran hit back at Jordan, Bahrain, the UAE and then Kuwait, and the Hormuz de-escalation story we leaned on last week evaporated inside forty-eight hours. The diesel crack set a fresh record above $106 a barrel on September 1. We do not think this week is the top either. Retail lags wholesale by one to two weeks, and last week’s wholesale move has not finished landing.
⛽
Section 1
Last Week at the Pump
EIA’s survey for the week ending Monday, August 31 put California on-highway diesel at $7.218, up 17.8 cents, and California regular at $5.520, up 7.0 cents. AAA’s Sunday, September 6 read is far worse: California diesel $7.8105, up 51.6 cents on the week and the highest price ever recorded in this state. Regular finished at $5.8468, up 16.7 cents. Diesel is up 91.7 cents in a month and $2.66 in a year. And here is the part nobody else will point out to you: the national diesel average went down 5.3 cents last week while California went up 17.8. That divergence is the whole story, and it is costing you twice — once at the rack, once in your surcharge.
CA Diesel
$7.811
statewide · AAA 9/6
↑ 52¢ wk · all-time record. Up $2.66 in a year.
CA Regular
$5.847
statewide avg · AAA 9/6
↑ 17¢ wk · record-priced Labor Day nationally.
WTI Crude
$91.48
front month · Fri 9/4
↑ ~9% wk · strongest week since mid-July.
ULSD Crack
$106+
per bbl · record set 9/1
↑ new high · normal is $15–$25.
Central Valley & Reference Markets — On-Highway Diesel
Market
Diesel
Wk
Note — and where regular sits
Bakersfield
$7.606
▲ 47¢
Cheapest diesel in the Valley and 20¢ under the state average — one of only three Valley metros that did not set a record. Its high is still $7.6483 from April 11. Regular $5.794. AAA, September 6.
Merced
$7.656
▲ 41¢
Smallest weekly move on this table for the third straight week — it moved first in August and is now catching up last. Regular $5.748. AAA, September 6.
Madera–Chowchilla
$7.699
▲ 53¢
Still 3.6¢ under its April 10 record of $7.7348. Regular $5.821. AAA, September 6.
Stockton–Lodi
$7.733
▲ 61¢
Record high. Was the cheapest diesel in the Valley a week ago; it gave that up in seven days. North Valley hauling reference. Regular $5.685. AAA, September 6.
Modesto
$7.738
▲ 60¢
Record high. Regular $5.665 — still the cheapest gasoline among the Valley metros we track. AAA, September 6.
Sacramento
$7.739
▲ 57¢
Record high. Regular $5.784. AAA, September 6.
Fresno
$7.808
▲ 54¢
Record high and now essentially at the state average. Up $1.04 in a month. Regular $5.802. AAA, September 6.
Visalia–Tulare
$7.821
▲ 64¢
Record high and now above the state average. Up $1.15 in a month — the second-biggest 30-day move on this table. Regular $5.793. AAA, September 6.
Hanford–Corcoran
$7.874
▲ 75¢
Biggest weekly move in California and a record high — up $1.30 in a month. Now the most expensive diesel in the Valley, 6¢ above the state average. Regular $5.798. AAA, September 6.
California avg.
$7.811
▲ 52¢
AAA, September 6 — all-time state record. EIA’s week-ending 8/31 survey printed $7.218, up 17.8¢. Regular $5.847. Diesel is up 92¢ in a month and $2.66 in a year.
West Coast less CA
$5.872
▲ 1¢
EIA, week ending 8/31. Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona — same coast, same crude, and they moved a penny while we moved eighteen. This is a California problem, not a West Coast one.
U.S. avg.
$5.599
▼ 5¢
EIA, week ending 8/31 — and it fell. This is the DOE figure your hauler’s surcharge runs off. National regular $4.147 (AAA, 9/6). The California premium is now $1.62 a gallon.
Diesel detail: EIA’s survey for the week ending August 31 put California on-highway diesel at $7.218, up 17.8 cents, against a national average of $5.599, down 5.3 cents. That is a $1.62 California premium — 23 cents wider than the week before, and the widest we have carried in this newsletter. Off-road dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise and the 24.4¢ federal excise, roughly a 73¢ per gallon spread before sales tax. Price your rack and cardlock against these numbers, not the sign on the highway.
For your surcharge tables — read this one twice. The DOE national on-highway diesel average of $5.599 for the week of August 31 governs fuel surcharges effective September 2 through 8, and it went down 5.3 cents. Meanwhile your California cost went up 17.8 cents on the EIA number and 51.6 on AAA. If your hauling agreements index to the national DOE figure, your recovery just fell while your cost climbed. That is a real, measurable hole in your margin this week. If you bill surcharges, index to the EIA California series or a West Coast rack, not the national number — and if you pay them, know that your carrier is eating the same gap and will come back for it.
🔮
Section 2
The Week Ahead: Our Forecast
For the week of September 7 through 13. WTI finished Friday at $91.48 and Brent at $96.28, both up better than 9% — the strongest week since mid-July. The ULSD crack set a record above $106 a barrel on September 1. Heating oil futures, the paper barrel behind your diesel, closed Friday at $4.54 a gallon, up 19.6% in a month and 98.5% in a year. None of that has finished reaching the pump. California retail runs one to two weeks behind wholesale, which means the September 1–4 move is still in the pipeline. We are calling higher again, and we are not calling a top this time.
Fuel
Expected Range
Direction
CA On-Highway Diesel
$7.85 – $8.10
▲ Higher, and biased to the top half — another 4 to 29¢. AAA added 3.4¢ in the last 24 hours alone. We expect California to print an $8 handle this week.
CA Regular Gasoline
$5.85 – $6.02
▲ Higher — 0 to 17¢. Post-Labor Day demand normally softens, but RBOB is up 13% in a month. The state record is $6.4375 from June 2022; we are not calling that yet.
EIA Print, Wed 9/9
CA diesel $7.72 – $7.92
▲ Sharply higher — a 50–70¢ jump on the week. Note the release moves to Wednesday because of Labor Day. EIA has been running roughly 8¢ under AAA. This is where our call gets graded.
Central Valley Retail
Diesel 21¢ under to 6¢ over state avg.
▲ The Valley discount is gone. Hanford and Visalia are now above the state average. Harvest hauling did that. Bakersfield and Merced are the only real discounts left.
Crude (WTI)
$87 – $99
▲ Biased higher, wide band — this is a headline market now, not a fundamentals market. OPEC+ met Sunday and was expected to hold October output flat. A single ceasefire headline takes $8 out of it.
▲ Pushing Prices Up
The war restarted. US forces struck Iranian targets September 1 after a month of quiet. Iran retaliated against positions in Jordan, Bahrain and the UAE, then hit Kuwait on September 3. The EU formally joined the sanctions campaign. Crude gained better than 9% on the week.
The diesel crack set a new record. US ULSD margins broke above $106 a barrel on September 1, past the August 18 record. Normal is $15 to $25. Refining capacity, not crude, is what is pricing your fuel right now.
Hormuz traffic thinned again. Six commodity vessels transited the strait Wednesday, against eleven Tuesday and a ten-day average near thirteen. Last week’s corridor talks produced nothing.
▼ Holding Prices Down
Distillate stocks actually built. Inventories rose 0.8 million barrels in the week ending August 28 — the first build in weeks — though they remain about 14% below the five-year average. The Gulf Coast added 3.1 million barrels.
The rest of the country is getting relief. National retail diesel fell 5.3 cents and West Coast-less-California rose only a penny. If California’s own bottleneck eases, there is room below.
Barrels are still moving. Iraqi exports averaged 2.35 million bpd in August and are expected higher in September. US commercial crude stocks sit at 424.5 million barrels, still 1% above the five-year average.
Our read: Last Monday we told you the wholesale market had turned and to stop buying past mid-September. Forty-eight hours later the shooting restarted and every one of the three things we said had broken — crude, the crack, and Hormuz — went straight back the other way. We were wrong, and if you followed that advice you are short gallons at a record price. We are sorry for it, and we are telling you plainly rather than quietly moving the goalposts. Here is the corrected call: buy what you need to finish harvest. Not two weeks — harvest. Walnuts are still ahead of you and the wholesale move from September 1 through 4 has not landed at your rack yet. The honest counter-argument is that this is a headline market, and headline markets reverse violently: a credible ceasefire, or Hormuz transits recovering toward thirteen a day, would take crude down eight to ten dollars fast and California would follow — slowly, as always. So do not lock a twelve-month fixed price at $7.81. Cover the season, keep the term short, and get your basis in writing. What would invalidate this call: a ceasefire or resumed Iran–Oman corridor talks, the ULSD crack breaking back under $90, or two consecutive distillate builds. Watch the crack, not the crude headline. It has been the better signal all summer.
⚡
Section 3
Your Other Energy Costs
Three weeks of summer tariff left. PG&E’s agricultural summer season runs June 1 through September 30, with the peak window at 5–8 p.m. every day including holidays. October 1 is when that block gets cheaper. Two rows on this table moved against you this week — read propane first, because that window is closing again.
Input
Where It Is
What It Means for You
Electricity (pump power)
Steady ~35¢/kWh blended
The cheapest thing on this page, and by the widest margin all year. No PG&E rate change lands this week. Summer season on the agricultural schedules (AG-A, AG-B, AG-C and TOU-PA) runs through September 30, with the 5–8 p.m. peak applying daily, holidays included — so Labor Day pumping in that window bills at peak. PG&E’s 2027–2030 General Rate Case remains pending at the CPUC; anything from it takes effect no earlier than January 2027. The 35¢ figure is a blended statewide estimate — pull your own tariff before you budget against it.
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Low $2.98/MMBtu
Front-month settled Friday at $2.975, up 2.1% on the day and about 10.7% in a month, but still 2.4% below a year ago — the only energy input on this page that is cheaper than last September. Utilities injected 30 Bcf into storage for the week ending August 28 and working stocks remain above the five-year average. EIA cut its 2026 Henry Hub forecast to $3.44. If you can run a dryer, dehydrator or pump on gas instead of diesel, do it. The spread has never been this lopsided.
Propane
Window closing ~66–69¢/gal Mont Belvieu
The pause we flagged last week is over. Propane stocks posted a counterseasonal draw of 2.1 million barrels in the week ending August 28 — against an expected 1.4 million build and a five-year average build of 2.2 million. That is a 3.5 million barrel miss. Total inventories fell to 107.4 million barrels, and the cushion over the five-year average narrowed from 32% to 25% in a single week. Mont Belvieu spot has been running in the mid-to-high 60-cent range. If you have not booked frost protection, dryer and heater gallons, this is the last easy week to do it.
LCFS & Cap-and-Invest
Unchanged $32.48/ton allowance
No new data this week. The last cap-and-invest auction, settled August 19 with results published August 26, cleared current-vintage allowances at $32.48, up $3.67 from May’s $28.81, with all 49,016,180 allowances sold. LCFS credits averaged near $63 a ton in the first quarter of 2026 and have stayed firm, with deficits exceeding credits for the first time in over four years. Diesel generates more deficits per gallon than gasoline. The next auction is in November. These costs do not fall when crude falls, and they are a permanent part of the $1.62 California premium.
Off-Road / Dyed Diesel
Following on-highway ~73¢ tax spread
Dyed diesel is exempt from California’s 48.2¢ state excise (raised from 46.6¢ on July 1) and the 24.4¢ federal excise — about 72.6¢ a gallon before sales tax. That spread is fixed, so your bulk delivered price tracks on-highway in both directions. Los Angeles CARB diesel spot ran $4.530 for the week ending August 28, before the escalation; the next weekly print lands September 10 and will be materially higher. Get the rack basis on your next delivery ticket in writing. At these levels a 5-cent basis argument on a 5,000-gallon fill is $250.
Diesel pumping versus electric, at this week’s prices. The gap blew out again. A diesel irrigation engine burns roughly 0.055 gallons per horsepower-hour at load. A 100-HP unit running eight hours is about 44 gallons a day — at Fresno’s $7.808 that is $344 a day, against $320 last week and $310 the week before. The same duty on an electric motor at 83 kW is 664 kWh; at 35 cents a kilowatt-hour that is $232. That is $112 a day, per pump, for running the wrong one — up from $88 seven days ago. Over a 30-day month on three pumps it is about $10,000. Those figures use a 35-cent blended rate and standard engine fuel maps; pull your own tariff and your own engine curve before you commit, because both vary by operation.
What the record week cost a 10,000-gallon harvest program. Statewide diesel rose 51.6 cents in seven days. On 10,000 gallons that is $5,160 — in one week, with no change in what you actually did. In Hanford–Corcoran, where the move was 74.8 cents, the same 10,000 gallons cost $7,480 more than it would have a week ago. For scale, that is roughly what a mid-sized grower budgets for an entire month of pumping power. This is why we push the electric-versus-diesel math every week: the fuel line is now the volatile one, and the meter is the stable one.
📰
Section 4
News Behind the Numbers
Global · Highest Impact
The Shooting Started Again on September 1. Crude Had Its Best Week Since July.
US Central Command struck Iranian targets on Tuesday, September 1, ending roughly a month of quiet. Tehran retaliated against positions in Jordan, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates over the following two days, and Kuwait’s army reported fending off Iranian missile and drone attacks on Thursday, September 3. Israel’s defense minister threatened “crippling” strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Vice President Vance said Thursday that Washington will not open talks until Iran stops attacking commercial shipping in Hormuz, and the EU formally joined the US-led sanctions campaign. WTI finished Friday at $91.48 and Brent at $96.28, both up better than 9% on the week. The tell for next week is vessel counts, not rhetoric. Six commodity ships transited Hormuz Wednesday against a ten-day average near thirteen. If that number climbs back toward normal, the rally loses its legs no matter what anyone says at a podium.
Refining · The Number That Sets Your Price
The Diesel Crack Set Another Record: Above $106 a Barrel
On Tuesday, September 1, the US diesel crack spread — the margin a refiner earns turning a barrel of crude into diesel — rose above $106 a barrel, an all-time high, past the record it set on August 18. Before this crisis, that number lived between $15 and $25. Here is why it matters more to you than the crude headline: crude explains only about a quarter of what you are paying. The rest is the refining bottleneck. Fighting has taken roughly 5 million barrels a day of global refining capacity offline, Russia’s export ban and Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries have removed something near 800,000 barrels a day of product, and Hormuz disruption accounts for another 1.2 million. European distillate inventories are well below seasonal norms. US retail diesel hit its highest level since mid-2022 this week. When we tell you to watch the crack rather than the crude price, this is what we mean — crude can fall $5 and your diesel will not move if the crack holds.
California · Record
$7.8105 — The Highest Diesel Price in California History
AAA’s Sunday read put the California statewide diesel average at $7.8105 — an all-time record, set today. Six of the nine Central Valley metros we track set records with it: Fresno, Visalia–Tulare, Hanford–Corcoran, Modesto, Stockton–Lodi and Sacramento. Bakersfield, Merced and Madera–Chowchilla are the only three still under their spring highs. On EIA’s week-ending August 31 numbers, California diesel sits $1.62 above the national average and $1.35 above the rest of the West Coast. The structural reasons have not changed and are not going to: 48.2¢ state excise, cap-and-invest allowances, LCFS deficits, a fuel spec nobody else makes — and roughly 20% of California refining capacity retired or exiting between the Phillips 66 Los Angeles shutdown and Valero’s departure from Benicia. What this means for planning: the floor under California diesel is permanently higher than it was two years ago. Budget your 2027 fuel line off a California number, not a national forecast.
Central Valley · Harvest Now
Hanford Led the Whole State at 75 Cents. Walnuts Are Still Ahead of You.
Almond harvest is running ahead of normal on a crop USDA put at 2.70 billion pounds, with hauling continuing into October, and walnut harvest is next up behind it. You can read the trucking demand straight off the price table: Hanford–Corcoran posted the biggest weekly diesel move in California at 74.8 cents and is now the most expensive diesel in the Valley, six cents above the state average. A month ago it was the cheapest metro on our table at $6.5757. That is $1.30 a gallon in thirty days in one of the most concentrated hauling corridors in the state. What the week did to a load: a 400-mile round trip at 6 mpg burns about 67 gallons. At Fresno’s $7.808 that is $521, against $485 seven days ago and $470 two weeks ago — $36 a load in seven days. Our 4-to-29-cent call this week is another $3 to $19 a load on top. If you are quoting custom hauling on a flat rate, requote it before walnuts start moving.
✅
Section 5
What To Do This Week
✓ Action Items
1. Cover harvest, not two weeks. We are reversing last Monday’s advice because the facts reversed. Book enough to finish almonds and get through walnuts. Keep the term short — do not sign a twelve-month fixed price at $7.81 — but do not sit on empty tanks waiting for a break that requires a ceasefire to happen.
2. Check what your surcharge is indexed to. This week specifically. The national DOE figure governing September 2 through 8 is $5.599, and it fell 5.3 cents while California rose. If your agreements run off the national number, your recovery dropped while your cost climbed. Pull one contract today and look at the index language.
3. Book propane now — the window shut. Stocks drew 2.1 million barrels against an expected build, and the cushion over the five-year average fell from 32% to 25% in one week. Frost protection, dryer and heater gallons. We said last week this was a pause, not a reversal. It was a pause, and it is over.
4. Get the rack basis in writing on every fill from here. At $7.81 a nickel of basis on a 5,000-gallon delivery is $250, and when this does roll over your supplier will come down slower than they went up. Written basis is how you make that a two-minute conversation instead of an argument.
5. Run electric, and move everything you can out of 5–8 p.m. The spread is now about $112 a day per 100-HP pump in favor of the meter — roughly $10,000 a month across three pumps. Three weeks of PG&E summer tariff remain; the peak window applies daily including holidays, and it ends September 30. It is a controller setting, not a capital project.
👀 What We’re Watching Next Week
Monday, Sep. 7: Labor Day — US markets closed, all EIA weekly releases pushed back. Tuesday, Sep. 8: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — watch whether they lift the Q4 Brent forecast off $85, because that is the number analysts anchor to. Wednesday, Sep. 9: EIA weekly retail price survey, moved from Monday. Our call is California diesel $7.72–$7.92. This is where we get graded. Thursday, Sep. 10: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report and the weekly spot price series, both moved from Wednesday — go to the distillate line and the Los Angeles CARB diesel spot first. Also the natural gas storage report. Friday, Sep. 11: Baker Hughes rig count. Ongoing: the OPEC+ outcome from Sunday’s meeting, daily Hormuz transit counts, and any credible ceasefire signal — that is the one thing that changes this call. Local: the last three weeks of PG&E summer tariff, walnut harvest start, and whether Hanford and Visalia hold above the state average.
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Bryan Mello
B Mello Ag Services — Central Valley, California
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Weekly Energy Update · Week 37 · Published Monday, September 7, 2026
Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports — field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.
This Weekly Energy Update is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Fuel, power and commodity prices are sourced from publicly available market and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to rapid change; figures are approximate and forward-looking statements reflect our current market view, not a guarantee. Retail averages will differ from your rack, cardlock or contract pricing. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult a licensed commodity broker before making marketing or hedging decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly retail gasoline and diesel price survey for the week ending August 31, 2026, released September 1, 2026 (next release September 9, 2026), including the U.S., West Coast PADD 5, West Coast less California and California series; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released September 2, 2026 covering the week ending August 28, 2026, including crude, distillate and propane inventories; EIA weekly Los Angeles ultra-low-sulfur CARB diesel spot price series for the week ending August 28, 2026, released September 2, 2026 (next release September 10, 2026); AAA Fuel Prices national, California statewide and California metro averages as of September 6, 2026, and the AAA fuel price release of September 3, 2026; Trading Economics crude, Brent, natural gas, RBOB gasoline and heating oil quotations for Friday, September 4, 2026 and accompanying market commentary; Bloomberg and industry reporting on the record US ULSD crack spread above $106 a barrel set September 1, 2026; CNBC and CBS News reporting on the resumption of US–Iran strikes beginning September 1, 2026 and Iranian attacks on Jordan, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait through September 3, 2026; OPEC Secretariat statement of August 2, 2026 and reporting ahead of the September 6, 2026 OPEC+ meeting; RBN Energy and EIA propane inventory data for the week ending August 28, 2026; EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update, working gas in storage for the week ending August 28, 2026, and the Short-Term Energy Outlook Henry Hub forecast; American Gas Association Natural Gas Market Indicators, September 3, 2026; CARB Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit transfer data and the California cap-and-invest auction results released August 26, 2026; California Department of Tax and Fee Administration motor vehicle fuel and diesel excise tax rates effective July 1, 2026; PG&E agricultural electric rate schedules and the pending 2027–2030 General Rate Case at the CPUC; reporting on the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery shutdown and Valero’s Benicia refinery exit; and USDA and Blue Diamond Growers 2026 California almond crop estimates and harvest progress reporting.
