|
Having trouble viewing this email?
|
|
Central Valley Agricultural Economic Intelligence
September 2026 Economic Update
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published September 15, 2026 • Milk & Dairy • Futures • Fuel • Weather • Water • Post-Harvest Soil Work
|
|
♦ CA DIESEL: $8.14/GAL, ALL-TIME RECORD ♦ DEC CORN: $5.33/BU ♦ CHEESE BLOCKS: $1.42/LB ♦ NONFAT DRY MILK: $1.995, NEAR $2 ♦ AUG CLASS III: $16.64/CWT ♦ EL NIÑO: OVER 90% CHANCE VERY STRONG ♦ CVP S-OF-DELTA CLOSES AT 28% ♦ POST-HARVEST SAMPLING WINDOW IS OPEN
|
|
|
| 🍨 |
Section 1
Milk Prices & Dairy Economic Outlook
|
|
The classes have swapped drivers. August came in with Class III up $1.12 to $16.64 and Class IV down 98¢ to $17.36, the narrowest gap of the year. But the spot market has gone the other way since: cheese blocks closed $1.42 on September 14 while nonfat dry milk pushed to $1.995, half a cent from $2.00. Powder up, cheese down, and the September 11 WASDE raised milk production again. Expect the Class III–IV gap to reopen.
| Class I Milk |
| $18.76 |
| per cwt · August announced |
| ↓ Down $2.57 from July at 3.5% butterfat, and 17¢ under August 2025. The fluid market gave back the spring gains. |
| Class III Milk |
| $16.64 |
| per cwt · August announced |
| ↑ Up $1.12 from July (USDA AMS, Sep 2). Do not bank on it holding, October Class III futures settled at $15.93 and the Sep WASDE trimmed 2026 to $16.20. |
| Class IV Milk |
| $17.36 |
| per cwt · August announced |
| ↓ Down $0.98 on softer butter. But the Sep WASDE raised the 2026 forecast 40¢ to $18.55 on the powder rally. |
| Class III–IV Spread |
| $0.72 |
| per cwt · August gap |
| Narrowest of 2026. Seventh straight month Class IV on top. With cheese at $1.42 and powder near $2, expect it to open back up. Watch your PPD. |
| Component |
Price |
Market Note |
| Cheddar Cheese |
$1.4200/lb |
CME 40# blocks, close Sep 14, down 4¢ on the day (barrels $1.44). This is the weak link in your milk check right now. The Sep WASDE trimmed the 2026 cheese forecast to $1.5700. |
| Butter |
$1.3700/lb |
CME close Sep 14, unchanged on the day but well off the $1.51 area a month ago. WASDE cut the 2026 butter forecast another nickel to $1.5950. |
| Nonfat Dry Milk |
$1.9950/lb |
CME close Sep 14, up 2.5¢ with three sales, within half a cent of $2.00. WASDE raised the 2026 NDM forecast 6.5¢ to $1.6700. The only product moving the right way. |
| Dry Whey |
$0.7600/lb |
CME close Sep 14, unchanged. Up roughly 6.5¢ from the $0.695 area in August, quietly supportive of Class III. WASDE left the 2026 forecast at $0.6700. |
| Butterfat / Protein |
$1.51 / $2.83 |
August component values, per lb. Butterfat fell 16¢ from July while protein jumped 51¢ from $2.32. If you ship on components, the mix matters more this fall than the class price does. |
|
📈 Dairy Economic Outlook
|
More milk, again. The September 11 WASDE raised the 2026 U.S. production forecast another 600 million lbs to 237.2 billion lbs, and raised 2027 by the same amount to 238.6 billion. The 2026 all-milk price came up a nickel to $19.90/cwt; Class III was trimmed to $16.20 and Class IV raised 40¢ to $18.55.
First real look at 2027. USDA has all-milk at $19.80, Class III at $17.10, and Class IV at $17.55, a flip, with Class III finally back on top next year. Useful context if you are pricing forward contracts this fall.
Bottom line: the cheap-feed tailwind that carried Valley dairies through summer is gone (Section 2), and the cheese side of your check got cheaper at the same time. That is the squeeze heading into Q4.
|
|
|
🏃 The Powder Rally & Depooling Watch
|
Powder is carrying the market. Nonfat dry milk at $1.995 is doing what cheese and butter are not. That props up Class IV while cheese blocks at $1.42 pull Class III down, which means the spread that narrowed to 72¢ in August is set to widen straight back out in September and October.
That is a depooling problem. When Class IV sits well above Class III, handlers have an incentive to pull the higher-value milk off the pool, and the blend price and producer price differential you actually get paid on move against you. Check the PPD line, not the announced class price.
What to watch: whether the powder rally holds through Q4, and whether export shipments keep clearing cheese. If exports slow, cheese backs up here and Class III has further to fall.
|
|
|
| 📈 |
Section 2
Grain & Commodity Futures
|
|
Settlements as of September 14, 2026. The September 11 WASDE cut the corn yield to 178.5 bu/acre from 180.7 and the crop to 15.8 billion bu, and with crude above $100 pulling ethanol margins up behind it, December corn has run to $5.33. That is roughly 60¢ above mid-August. Soybean meal at $350/ton is up more than $40 in a month. The cheap-feed window Valley dairies enjoyed all summer has closed.
| Commodity |
Near-Month |
Sep 14 Change |
Market Note |
| 🌾 Corn (CBOT) |
$5.33¼/bu
Dec ’26 |
▲ +3¢ |
↑ Up hard. Roughly 60¢ above mid-August. The Sep WASDE cut yield to 178.5 bu/ac from 180.7 and production to 15.80 billion bu, with ending stocks down to 1.567 billion. Season-average farm price raised to $4.80. Crude above $100 is pulling ethanol demand along. Budget higher feed cost into Q4 rations. |
| 🌾 Wheat (CBOT SRW) |
$7.22/bu
Dec ’26 |
▼ −3¼¢ |
↑ Holding high. Up roughly 55¢ from mid-August. U.S. yield and production were left unchanged at 47.8 bu/ac and 1.531 billion bu, this is a freight and Black Sea story, not a domestic supply one. Farm price raised to $6.40. |
| 🌾 Wheat (HRW/KC) |
~$8.00/bu
most active, Sep 11 |
▼ −1.6% |
↑ Leading. Hard red winter is carrying roughly a 75¢ premium to Chicago. If you have HRW left to move, or you are pricing seed wheat for a fall planting, this is a strong board, and seed cost is going up with it. |
| 🌎 Soybeans (CBOT) |
$13.04¼/bu
Nov ’26 |
▲ +7¾¢ |
↑ Stronger. Yield came in at 52.8 and production at 4.535 billion bu, but ending stocks tightened to 310 million. Farm price raised to $12.00. October meal at $350.20/ton (up $3.40 on the day) is the number for your ration, more than $40/ton above August. |
| 🌿 Cotton (ICE) |
86.06¢/lb
Dec ’26, Sep 11 close |
~85.4¢
Sep 14 |
→ Sideways, but strong. Up roughly 31% year over year. U.S. crop conditions slipped five points out of good-excellent on Texas drought and heat. For Kern and Kings acres this is still the best marketing picture in several seasons, time defoliation to finish clean. |
|
Market Advisory: The whole board is being repriced off energy. WTI crude traded near $102 and Brent near $106 on September 15, up more than 21% in a month, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and a drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline taking roughly 4% of global supply offline. That flows into grain through ethanol, fertilizer, and freight all at once, see Section 3. Prices shown are indicative settlements as of September 14 and move daily. Confirm current bids with your handler or broker before making any merchandising decision.
|
|
| ⛽ |
Section 3
Fuel Prices & Outlook
|
|
There is no soft way to put this. California diesel set an all-time record of $8.14/gal on September 14, up more than $1.50 in five weeks, and six Bay Area pumps posted $9.999. The national diesel average also set a record, at $6.20. The cause is global this time: the Strait of Hormuz has been closed since late February, and a drone strike took Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline offline. This lands squarely on nut harvest, hauling, and every pump still running.
| ⚠ ALL-TIME RECORD |
| Diesel (Clear #2) |
| $8.14 |
| per gallon · CA average, Sep 14 |
| ↑ All-time record. Up roughly $1.52 in five weeks. Sits $1.94 above the $6.20 national average, which is itself a record. Six Bay Area pumps posted $9.999. |
| Red Diesel (Ag Dyed) |
| Est. $7.20–$7.35 |
| per gallon · estimated Central Valley |
| ↑ Record territory too. Off-road dyed typically runs about 90¢/gal under clear with no road taxes. This is an estimate, confirm with your supplier, since volume and region both move it. |
| Gasoline (Regular) |
| $5.90 |
| per gallon · CA average, Sep 10 |
| → Highest in the nation. Up 27% since January against a national average near $4.16–$4.28. Note gasoline has risen far less than diesel, distillate is where the shortage is. |
|
⚠ What’s Driving This
|
This one is not California’s doing. The pressure is global and it is landing on distillate hardest:
• Strait of Hormuz closed since late February, normally about 20% of world oil moves through it.
• Saudi East-West pipeline offline after a drone strike, taking roughly 4% of global supply out.
• Distillate inventories are tight and refining capacity has been damaged, diesel is being hit far harder than gasoline.
• Brent ran from $68.53 on July 2 to $109.51 on September 9.
• California on top of that: refinery closures, CARB diesel spec, roughly $0.90/gal in state taxes, and thin West Coast logistics.
|
|
|
📊 30-Day Fuel Price Outlook
|
As long as Hormuz stays closed there is no case for a return to a $6 handle. Plan harvest and hauling on $8.00–$8.40/gal clear and roughly $7.10–$7.50 red for the next 30 days, and treat anything below that as a break rather than the new normal.
The second wave is coming. Diesel rolls into freight, fertilizer, and custom rates on a six-to-ten week lag. The fall inputs you price in November will carry September’s fuel in them. Get quotes in writing now where you can.
Action: Talk to your fuel supplier about volume contracts this week. And if you do custom work, put a fuel surcharge line on the invoice rather than absorbing a $1.50/gal move, at these levels that is not a rounding error.
|
|
|
Crude Oil Context. WTI traded near $102.30/barrel and Brent near $106.50 on September 15, WTI up roughly 21% in a month and 58% year to date. Every $10/barrel move is worth about 24¢/gal at the pump, which is why a $30 crude move since July has produced a $1.50 diesel move here. California’s thin refining margin means every global swing lands harder in this state than anywhere else in the country.
|
|
| 🌤 |
Section 4
Weather Outlook & Agricultural Relevance
|
|
A comfortable stretch of weather, and you should use it. NWS Hanford has Fresno highs at 87–92°F through the week with lows near 61°F, right around the September normal, and no rain in the forecast. Good conditions for finishing nut harvest and starting walnuts. The bigger story is what is building behind it: the Climate Prediction Center now puts the odds of a very strong El Niño above 90%, with a 75% chance this event reaches historic strength between October and December.
| High Temp |
| 87–92°F |
| Fresno · next 7 days (NWS) |
| Near normal. The September normal high runs near 91°F. Sunny and stable, good conditions for finishing nuts and starting walnuts. |
| Low Temp |
| 61–62°F |
| overnight lows |
| Clear nights and low humidity give clean drying for windrows and raisin trays. No frost concern yet, first risk normally shows up in November. |
| El Niño Odds |
| >90% |
| chance of a very strong event |
| 75% chance of historic strength Oct–Dec, per CPC, up from 69% last month. This is the number that should be driving your fall calendar. |
| Precipitation |
| 0.00 in |
| next 7 days |
| Dry through the forecast period. First meaningful rain chances usually arrive late October, and this year they may arrive with force. Plan the dry-ground work now. |
| Crop / Sector |
September Weather Relevance & Action Items |
| 🍐 Almonds / Pistachios |
Nonpareil and Independence are essentially complete; pollinizers are still coming off. August receipts hit 401.9 million lbs, 55% above last year on the two-week-early start. Kernel sizes are running smaller than hoped. Get post-harvest irrigation back on as blocks clear, the tree carries that water into 2027 bloom, and on a tight-supply year that matters. Pistachio harvest is wrapping on a light off-year crop. Post-harvest is also your soil-correction window; see Section 6. |
| 🪓 Walnuts |
Harvest is starting. Watch hull split and husk fly through the first shake. Keep water on until harvest to protect kernel weight and color, late stress shows up as shrivel and dark kernels. Then move straight to post-harvest irrigation and soil amendment while the ground is still dry and workable. |
| 🍇 Grapes |
Wine and raisin harvest in full swing. Dry, near-normal weather is ideal for tray drying. Do not slow-walk the roll and pick-up this year. With a strong El Niño building, an early-October storm on trays is the single event that defines a raisin season, get them off the ground ahead of schedule if you can. |
| 🌾 Wheat / Small Grains |
This is the window. Ground is open, dry, and workable ahead of the October–December planting run. Pull soil and water samples now so results are back and amendments are down before planting and before the rain. If the El Niño winter verifies, that moisture will incorporate your gypsum, sulfur, and zeolite at no cost to you. Note HRW near $8.00, seed wheat will not be cheap. |
| 🌿 Cotton / Field Crops |
Approaching cutout and defoliation in Kern and Kings county fields. Time defoliation to nodes-above-cracked-boll, not the calendar, and watch the forecast, because a wet fall on open bolls costs grade. With December cotton near 86¢, finishing clean is worth real money. Keep scouting late aphids; sticky cotton is a gin problem you do not want. |
| 🍊 Citrus |
Fruit is sizing toward harvest. Keep irrigation even, swings between wet and dry are what split and crack fruit at this stage. Continue Asian Citrus Psyllid monitoring and report any suspicious yellowing or die-back to CDFA immediately. |
30-Day Outlook (Sep 15 – Oct 15): Seasonal cooling through late September into October, highs easing from the low 90s into the 80s and toward the upper 70s by mid-October. Rainfall stays near zero through September, with the first real chances arriving late October. ET demand falls off quickly from here, so recalibrate to CIMIS rather than holding summer irrigation sets out of habit; over-watering in October is wasted water at $8.14 diesel.
Looking further out, and this one has a deadline attached: CPC now has better than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño and a 75% chance of a historic-strength event between October and December, up from 69% a month ago. Forecast guidance points to a wet, stormy California winter with the potential for several strong atmospheric rivers. It is still early, and El Niño signals are less reliable for Central California than for the south state. But the planning move is the same either way: assume the ground closes in November, not January. Every soil-correction job you want done this year has to be sampled in the next few weeks. See Section 6.
|
|
| 💧 |
Section 5
Water Situation & District Updates
|
|
The 2026 water year closes September 30. South-of-Delta CVP contractors finish at 28%, raised four times from a 15% initial allocation in February. It was a short year that ended better than it started. Attention now turns to 2027, and for once the setup looks favorable: carryover storage is respectable at most major reservoirs and a strong El Niño is building. Two cautions, Pine Flat, the Kings River supply, is the weakest large reservoir in the state at 16% of capacity, and DWR sets December’s initial Table A allocation on storage, not on a forecast.
|
✅ Water Year 2026 Closes September 30
|
South-of-Delta irrigation contractors finish the year at 28% and south-of-Delta M&I at 78%. Track the year: 15% initial in February, 20% in March, 25% in May, 28% on August 11. Four increases off a very thin start.
Friant Division closes at 100% Class 1 with Class 2 at zero. Sacramento River Settlement contractors and north-of-Delta M&I finish at 100%.
Two things to do before September 30: reconcile actual deliveries against what you scheduled, and get any rescheduling request for unused allocation filed with your district. Water left unscheduled when the books close is water you paid for and did not get.
|
|
|
💧 Carryover Storage, and the Kings River Problem
|
Most of the major reservoirs enter the new water year in reasonable shape: Shasta 56% of capacity (96% of average), Oroville 54% (92%), San Luis 66% (168% of average), New Melones 66% (114%), Trinity 71% (111%).
Pine Flat is the outlier at 16% of capacity and 49% of average. The Kings River system drew down hard this summer. For Kings and Fresno county operations that is the number to watch into 2027, a low starting point means a conservative early entitlement no matter what the winter does.
Folsom at 46% of capacity (85% of average) is also running below par.
|
|
| CVP Contractor / District |
WY2026 Final |
Notes |
| Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (N of Delta) |
100% ✓ |
Final for the water year. Senior settlement contract rights, full supply delivered. |
| M&I Contractors (N of Delta, Folsom) |
100% ✓ |
American River / Folsom Reservoir water service. Full allocation for the year. |
| Friant Division (Millerton / Friant-Kern Canal) |
100% Class 1 ✓ |
First 800,000 AF fully allocated. Class 2 finished at 0% for the year. |
| Irrigation Contractors (S of Delta), incl. Westlands |
28% ▲ |
Final for WY2026, raised four times from the 15% initial. Still well short of contract, groundwater carried the balance all season. |
| M&I Contractors (S of Delta) |
78% ▲ |
Of historic use or public health and safety needs, whichever is greater. |
| Cross Valley Contractors (irrigation) |
15% ⚠ |
Unchanged all year. Groundwater was the primary supply for most of these operations. |
| Eastside Contractors (Central SJ Water, Stockton East) |
49,000 AF |
Raised from zero in spring as storage improved. Still supplemented heavily with groundwater. |
| State Water Project (SWP), South |
50%* |
Well above the 10% initial. *Confirm your district’s final Table A figure with DWR. The initial WY2027 allocation comes in December. |
|
📅 Water Release Dates & Run Times
|
Friant-Kern Canal: Class 1 deliveries are winding down for the water year. Contact Friant Water Authority for end-of-season cutoff dates and for any WY2027 carryover or Section 215 water announcements.
Madera Canal: Running on the same Friant schedule. Confirm final turn dates with Madera Irrigation District before September 30.
Delta-Mendota Canal (DMC): Deliveries reflect the 28% final allocation. Any unused allocation needs a rescheduling request filed with your district before the water year closes.
Kings River / Tulare Lake Basin: With Pine Flat at 16% of capacity, expect a conservative start to 2027. Contact Consolidated Irrigation District, Kings River Water Association, or your local district for storage and entitlement status.
|
|
|
⚡ Key Water Management Priorities
|
The season shifts from rationing to closing out the year and setting up the next one:
• Close the water year properly. Reconcile deliveries and file rescheduling requests before September 30.
• Post-harvest irrigation is not optional. Trees set next year’s crop now. Do not let the allocation run dry before the last block gets water.
• Pumping just got expensive. At $8.14 diesel, every unnecessary pump hour costs materially more than it did in August. Check distribution uniformity before you run more water at a problem.
• Test before you amend. If you are planning gypsum, sulfur, zeolite, or a leaching run this fall, the soil and water report is what sets the rate.
• SGMA: heavy summer pumping still has to be tracked and reported.
• Plan for a wet winter. Clear tailwater ponds, ditches, and culverts before October rather than during the first storm.
|
|
|
Water Advisory: WY2026 closes September 30 at 28% south-of-Delta, real improvement over the February outlook, but a short year that ran on stored water with no snowmelt behind it. A strong El Niño is a forecast, not water in a reservoir: the WY2027 CVP initial allocation is not announced until late February, and DWR’s initial SWP Table A figure lands in December based on storage at that time. Allocation percentages and delivery schedules both change, confirm your district’s current status and run times directly with them rather than relying on any published figure, including this one.
|
|
| 🧭 |
Section 6
Product Spotlight
|
|
Harvest is clearing ground right now, and if the El Niño forecast verifies you have weeks, not months, before that ground closes. This month we are leading with KMI Zeolite 30-Mesh, a natural mineral amendment that goes down best on bare post-harvest ground and holds both water and nutrients in the root zone, paired with Aqua-Drive Elite for the hydrophobic ground and chronic dry spots that show up every fall. Both start with the same first step: a soil and water test, which is still the cheapest line item in the program.
|
The Window Is Open Right Now
🧪 Your Post-Harvest Sampling Window Is Open, And It Closes With the First Storm
|
Last month we said book early. This month the window is actually open. As blocks clear, the ground is dry, firm, and accessible, the best conditions all year for pulling clean, representative cores and for getting a spreader across a field without leaving ruts. That is right now, and it does not last.
And the deadline moved up. The Climate Prediction Center now has better than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño and a 75% chance of a historic-strength event between October and December, with guidance pointing to a wet, stormy California winter. Once the ground is wet, nobody is pulling samples or spreading amendments. Equipment does not go in, ruts do not heal, and the job waits until spring, which means a full season lost on whatever the report would have told you.
| This week |
Get on the calendar. We schedule block by block around your harvest, so we are in the field the week it clears rather than three weeks later. |
| As blocks clear |
Samples pulled on dry, accessible ground, the cleanest cores of the year, and the only time a spreader travels well. |
| Water sample too |
Pull from every well and turnout you actually irrigate with. After a season of heavy pumping, well chemistry has moved, and it drives half of what the soil report will say. |
| Lab turnaround |
Results and interpretation come back while the ground is still workable, not after the first storm has already made the decision for you. |
| Before the rain |
Zeolite, gypsum, sulfur, and nutrient corrections go down at the right rate, then winter moisture works them into the profile for you. |
The upside if it does rain hard: a wet winter is the best incorporation tool there is. Amendments applied before the storms get carried into the profile at no cost to you. The growers who come out ahead of an El Niño winter are the ones who got their material down first, and that comes back to whether the sample was pulled in time.
Tell us your crops and roughly when each block clears, and we will build the calendar backward from there.
|
|
Email opens a message to bryan@bmelloag.com with the subject already filled in, just add your ranch and when each block clears.
|
|
🌰 2026 Nut Harvest Watch
|
Almonds: a smaller crop moving into a firm market. Nonpareil and Independence are essentially complete, with pollinizers still coming off. August receipts hit 401.9 million lbs, 55% above last year, almost entirely because harvest started two weeks early rather than because the crop is bigger. August shipments totaled 190 million lbs, with exports up 31% to 143.2 million lbs. India alone took 44.3 million lbs, up roughly 170% from 16.4 million a year ago on festival-season buying into a high-priced market. Carry-in sits at 447.1 million edible lbs, down from last year. The market read is stable to firm on tight supplies. The caution: kernel sizes are coming in smaller than growers hoped, and that speculation is now being realized at the huller.
Pistachios are wrapping up a light off-year crop, the alternate-bearing down cycle compounded by the warm March that disrupted bloom overlap. Walnut harvest is just getting started; keep water on until you shake, then get post-harvest irrigation back on quickly.
What that means for you: a smaller crop into a firmer market rewards finishing well. Protect kernel quality through the last shake, and do not shortchange post-harvest irrigation or soil correction, that window is what sets the 2027 crop. And with harvest running early into a fall that may turn wet early, the post-harvest window opens sooner but does not necessarily last longer.
|
|
KMI Zeolite · 30-US Mesh · OMRI Listed
KMI Zeolite
Natural Water & Nutrient Manager
97%+ Clinoptilolite, OMRI Listed, CDFA Certified, GRAS
|
★ Fall Ground Work
|
|
|
Clinoptilolite Content
97%+
Naturally mined, single source
|
Cation Exchange (CEC)
1.6–2.0 meq/g
Holds NH₄⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺
|
|
Particle Size (30-mesh)
90% <0.595 mm
Median ~80 US mesh
|
pH Stability
3.0 – 10.0
Stable in all ag soil types
|
|
A naturally mined clinoptilolite zeolite that works as a sponge and a slow-release reservoir in your soil, holding water and nutrients in the root zone instead of letting them drain past it. It is a soil amendment, not a tank product: it goes down on bare, worked ground and gets incorporated, which makes the post-harvest window the right and practically the only time to put it out.
|
| ✓ Holds water in the root zone, roughly 40 m²/g of surface area and high CEC retain moisture between irrigations |
| ✓ Slow-releases nutrients, captures NH4+, K+ and Ca2+ and gives them back as the crop demands, cutting leaching loss |
| ✓ OMRI Listed for organic use, CDFA Licensed (Fertilizer ID: 465901), GRAS (FDA 21 CFR) |
| ✓ Best on sandy and coarse ground that drains too fast, and on any block where fertilizer keeps disappearing |
| ✓ Goes down on bare post-harvest ground, and a wet El Niño winter incorporates it for you at no cost |
| ✓ Super sacks, 50 lb paper bags, and 5 & 20 lb printed poly bags |
|
ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
WALNUTS
COTTON
GRAPES
CITRUS
|
|
|
|
Diamond K Gypsum · Nonionic Surfactant
Aqua-Drive Elite™
Soil Moisture Management
Alkylpolyglucoside, poloxalene & polydimethylsiloxane, 52% total actives
|
|
|
Total Actives
52.0%
31% / 19% / 2% blend
|
Initial Rate
1–6 qt/ac
Any irrigation system
|
|
Follow-Up Rate
1–6 pt/ac
Pints, every 45–65 days
|
With Bio Algae
1:1 or 2:1
Co-pack option
|
|
A nonionic surfactant built for soil moisture management in irrigated crops. Aqua-Drive Elite lowers the surface tension of your irrigation water and increases both penetration and percolation through the profile, so a short set moves down into the root zone instead of standing on top or running off the end of the row. Zeolite holds water once it is down there; Elite is how it gets there.
|
| ✓ Lowers surface tension, increases water penetration and percolation through the profile |
| ✓ Runs through what you already have, microsprinklers, drip, large-nozzle sprinklers or pivots |
| ✓ Pairs with Diamond K Bio Algae, go 2:1 Elite to Bio Algae on genuinely hydrophobic ground |
| ✓ Tank sprayer option, 2% v/v in fertilizer solution at 1–8 pints/acre, then irrigate it in |
| ✓ On dryland ground, apply ahead of expected rain, worth planning now with a wet winter in the forecast |
| ✓ Always inject through a back-flow check valve. 2.5 gal jugs, twin-packs, Bio Algae co-pack |
|
ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
WALNUTS
GRAPES
CITRUS
COTTON
|
|
|
| What You’re Seeing |
What the Test Points To |
The Right Fix |
| Water drains straight through; the block dries out days before the next set |
Coarse, sandy, low-CEC ground with very little water-holding capacity |
✓ KMI Zeolite. Broadcast on bare post-harvest ground and incorporate. This is its best use. |
| Fertilizer response is short-lived, nitrogen seems to vanish between applications |
Leaching loss on a low-CEC profile, often made worse by heavy irrigation |
✓ KMI Zeolite. The exchange capacity captures ammonium and potassium and releases them back as the crop calls for them. |
| Dry pockets directly under emitters that are clearly working |
Hydrophobic soil, organic coatings repelling water off the particle surface |
✓ Aqua-Drive Elite. This is exactly what it was formulated for. |
| Crusting, dispersed, slow-draining ground |
Elevated exchangeable sodium (ESP), a sodic soil, not a wetting problem |
Soluble calcium at the rate your ESP calls for, then leach it. Neither a zeolite nor a surfactant fixes this, and fall, before the rain, is exactly when to do it. |
| Water perches at one consistent depth every time |
A physical hardpan, plow pan, or stratified layer, confirm with a shovel or probe |
Straight answer: a true compaction layer needs tillage or ripping. Post-harvest is the one time of year you can get that equipment across the ground. |
| The point |
✓ All five look nearly identical from the pickup. Standing water, dry spots, and a poor fertilizer response are symptoms, not diagnoses. The test is what separates a zeolite job from a surfactant job from a gypsum bill from a ripping bill, and it is the cheapest line item in the whole program. |
September 2026 Fall Program: KMI Zeolite goes down on bare, worked ground after harvest, broadcast and incorporate so it ends up in the root zone rather than sitting on top of it. Rate depends on soil texture and exchange capacity, which is precisely why the test comes first. Aqua-Drive Elite goes in at 1 to 6 quarts per acre to start through any irrigation system, then 1 to 6 pints per acre every 45 to 65 days, note the follow-up is measured in pints, not quarts. Running it with Diamond K Bio Algae is the label’s preferred program: 1 quart of each to start, or 2 quarts Elite to 1 quart Bio Algae where the ground is genuinely hydrophobic, then 1:1 every 45 to 65 days. Always inject through a back-flow check valve. The label times the first application to the first irrigation cycle in early spring, so call us rather than guessing on a fall start. Elite carries a WARNING signal word for eye irritation; gloves and eye protection when handling.
And do not skip post-harvest irrigation. At $8.14 diesel, pumping is genuinely expensive right now and it is tempting to shut down early. A tree that goes into dormancy dry gives you a lighter 2027, budget the water, and make it go further by fixing whatever the soil report says is actually wrong.
|
|
Questions? Let’s Talk.
Post-harvest sampling is running now and the calendar is filling. With a very strong El Niño building, the growers who get their samples pulled and their amendments down first are the ones who benefit from a wet winter instead of losing a season to it. Call and we will schedule around your harvest, and talk through fertilizer programs, water management, or this month’s market data while we are at it.
Soil & Water Analysis
Custom Blends
Organic & Biological Programs
Commodity Insights
|
|
|
This Month in American History
September 17, 1787, The Signing of the Constitution
|
Two days from now, on September 17, the United States marks 239 years since thirty-nine delegates put their names to the Constitution in the Pennsylvania State House in Philadelphia. They had spent a hot summer behind closed windows arguing over how much power a government should have and how much it should be denied, and what they produced was not a perfect document. Several delegates refused to sign it. Those who did knew it would need amending.
What made it remarkable was not that it settled every question. It was that it created a way to keep answering them without tearing the country apart, and then handed that job to ordinary citizens. Farmers, tradesmen, shopkeepers. People with work to do and an interest in being left alone to do it.
That is still the arrangement. The right to own your ground, sign your own contracts, argue with your water district, and vote out the people setting the rules you farm under all traces back to four pages signed by thirty-nine men who were not certain it would work. Constitution Day is Thursday. It is worth the minute.
|
|
“
A republic, if you can keep it.
Benjamin Franklin, on leaving the Convention
As recorded in the diary of delegate James McHenry, September 1787
|
|
|
|
To the Men & Women of Our Armed Forces and First Responders
From the fields of the Central Valley to the far corners of the world, your sacrifice, courage, and daily commitment make it possible for all of us to plant, grow, and build. We farm in freedom because you stand in its defense.
You are the reason we are Safe and Free.
B Mello Ag Services, Proudly American, Central Valley, California
|
|
|
Every month we pull together the numbers that actually move your operation, milk, feed, fuel, water, and the crops in the ground, so you don’t have to chase them across a dozen reports. When the markets turn, you’ll hear it from us first. That’s the promise behind every B Mello Economic Update.
Proudly American · Rooted in the American Dream
Bryan Mello
B Mello Ag Services, Central Valley, California
Every issue we have ever published is free at bmelloag.com/reports, field conditions, ag crime, markets, fuel and fishing.
|
|
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
September 2026 Economic Update · Published September 15, 2026
|
(559) 816-3889
bryan@bmelloag.com
|
|
This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Commodity prices, fuel prices, water allocations, and weather data are sourced from publicly available government and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to change. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult with a licensed commodity broker before making marketing decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: USDA September 2026 WASDE (released Sep 11), USDA AMS Announcement of Class and Component Prices for August 2026 (Sep 2), CME spot dairy closes (Sep 14, 2026), CBOT/KCBT/ICE futures settlements (Sep 11–14, 2026), EIA and AAA fuel price data (week of Sep 7–14), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 2026 CVP allocation announcements, California DWR reservoir conditions, NWS Hanford, NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO outlook (Sep 10), USDA NASS and California almond industry position reports, KMI Zeolite and Diamond K Gypsum product literature.
Copyright ©. All rights reserved.
You are receiving this because you opted in at B Mello Ag Services.
Update your preferences •
Unsubscribe from this list •
|
|
|
