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Central Valley Agricultural Economic Intelligence
August 2026 Economic Update
B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
Published August 15, 2026 • Milk & Dairy • Futures • Fuel • Weather • Water • Fall Soil Sampling
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♦ BOOK FALL SOIL SAMPLING NOW — EL NIÑO MAY SHORTEN THE WINDOW ♦ CORN: $4.48/BU (SEP) ♦ CBOT WHEAT: $6.52/BU (SEP) ♦ CLASS III: $15.52/CWT (JULY) ♦ CA DIESEL: $6.62/GAL ♦ CLASS I SKIM DOWN $2.73 ♦ CVP S-OF-DELTA RAISED TO 28% ♦ PISTACHIO HARVEST UNDERWAY — EARLY & LIGHT
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🍨
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Section 1
Milk Prices & Dairy Economic Outlook
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Two things define the August dairy market. First, the August advanced Class I base skim price fell $2.73/cwt — the single biggest one-month drop of 2026, and it lands directly in your milk check. Second, the cheese, butter, and powder markets have converged: all three are now trading in the $1.50s, a rare alignment. The August 12 WASDE raised 2026 U.S. milk production again to 238.1 billion lbs. More milk, flatter product prices, tighter margins.
| Class I Milk |
| $13.18 |
| base skim · August 2026 advanced |
| ↓ Down $2.73 from July — the largest one-month drop this year. Base Class I price $18.76/cwt at 3.5% BF. |
| Class III Milk |
| $15.52 |
| per cwt · July announced |
| ↓ Down $0.46 from June (USDA AMS, Aug 5). The August WASDE nudged the 2026 forecast up to $16.25 on firmer cheese and whey. |
| Class IV Milk |
| $18.34 |
| per cwt · July announced |
| ↓ Down $2.62 — a hard fall on softer butter and NDM. Still the top class. August WASDE trimmed the 2026 forecast to $18.15. |
| Class III–IV Spread |
| $2.82 |
| per cwt · July gap |
| Narrowest since March. Sixth straight month Class IV sits on top — the depooling incentive is still live. Watch your PPD. |
| Component |
Price |
Market Note |
| Cheddar Cheese |
$1.5550/lb |
CME 40# blocks, close Aug 7 (barrels $1.5475). Record cheese shipments to Mexico are what is keeping U.S. warehouses from filling up. |
| Butter |
$1.5125/lb |
CME close Aug 7. June butter exports ran 48 percent above a year ago — the main thing keeping domestic supply in check. August WASDE lowered the 2026 forecast again. |
| Nonfat Dry Milk |
$1.5775/lb |
CME close Aug 7 — the firmest of the four. June NDM and skim powder output fell 2.4 percent year on year to the lowest June total since 2013. |
| Dry Whey |
$0.6950/lb |
CME close Aug 7. The steadiest product on the board — barely moved in weeks. August WASDE raised the 2026 whey forecast, which is what lifted Class III. |
| Butterfat / Protein |
$1.67 / $2.32 |
July component values, per lb. Butterfat slipped 2¢ to its lowest since January; protein fell from $2.46 in June. Component checks are thinning along with class prices. |
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📈 Dairy Economic Outlook
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More milk, again. The August 12 WASDE raised 2026 U.S. production to 238.1 billion lbs — up 6.4 billion from 2025 — on higher cow numbers. For 2026 the Class III forecast rose to $16.25 on firmer cheese and whey, while Class IV was cut to $18.15 on softer butter and powder.
Watch the depooling risk. July marked the sixth consecutive month Class IV finished above Class III. When that gap holds, handlers have an incentive to depool the higher-value milk, which can pull down the blend price and the producer price differential you actually get paid on. Check your PPD line, not just the announced class price.
Bottom line: Cheaper corn (Section 2) is the one lever moving your way. Feed cost discipline and component focus are what protect margin into the fall.
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🏃 The Convergence & Export Story
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An unusual alignment. Spot cheese, butter, and milk powder are all trading neck and neck in the $1.50s — a convergence you rarely see. It reflects a market that has found a floor rather than one still falling, and week-to-week moves have been modest.
Exports are doing the heavy lifting. Cheese shipments to Mexico hit a fresh record in June, and butter and milkfat exports ran 48 percent above a year earlier. Those shipments are the reason product prices have held in the $1.50s instead of sliding further.
The catch: that export pace has to hold. Prices must stay low enough to keep the shipments moving — if exports slow to a walk, the cheese backs up here.
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Section 2
Grain & Commodity Futures
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Settlements as of August 13, 2026. The August 12 WASDE gave grains a lift — a smaller soybean yield and tighter corn ending stocks — and Black Sea escalation is doing the rest for wheat. Wheat is the standout, with Kansas City hard red winter now well north of $7. Corn remains the cheap feed story that Valley dairies need.
| Commodity |
Near-Month |
Deferred |
Market Note |
| 🌾 Corn (CBOT) |
$4.48/bu
Sep ’26 |
$4.72 Dec
$4.88 Mar |
→ Choppy. Bounced off a four-week low on the WASDE, then gave back 9¢ Thursday. USDA pegged the crop at 16.01 billion bu — huge. Still the best feed-cost news Valley dairies have had all year. |
| 🌾 Wheat (CBOT) |
$6.52/bu
Sep ’26 |
$6.68 Dec
$6.85 Mar |
↑ Up hard. Roughly 20¢ above July on Black Sea escalation — Ukrainian strikes on Russian ports have disrupted export flows. Geopolitics, not fundamentals, is setting this price. |
| 🌾 Wheat (HRW/KC) |
$7.20/bu
Sep ’26 |
$7.35 Dec
$7.49 Mar |
↑ Leading. Hard red winter is carrying a 68¢ premium over Chicago — the widest in months. Wet harvest weather in Texas cut yields and firmed protein values. |
| 🌎 Soybeans (CBOT) |
$11.66/bu
Sep ’26 |
$11.82 Nov
$11.98 Jan |
→ Steady. WASDE trimmed yield to 52.7 bu/acre from 53.0, and new-crop export sales to China have restarted. Meal at $307/ton is the number that matters for your ration. |
| 🌿 Cotton (ICE) |
83.50¢/lb
Dec ’26 |
Off 88 pts
Aug 13 |
↑ Much stronger. A substantial move up from the 66–70¢ band that held through early summer. If you have Kern or Kings acres in the ground, this is a materially better marketing picture than it was in July. |
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Market Advisory: Crude has climbed back to roughly $81/barrel (September WTI) from the low-$70s in July, which is why fuel costs turned back up this month — see Section 3. The August 12 WASDE lifted grain prices on tighter corn ending stocks and a smaller soybean yield, while wheat is being driven mainly by Black Sea disruption rather than U.S. fundamentals. Prices shown are indicative settlements as of August 13 and move daily. Confirm current bids with your handler or broker before making any merchandising decision.
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Section 3
Fuel Prices & Outlook
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The July relief did not hold. California diesel has climbed roughly 55¢/gal since early July as crude firmed from the low-$70s back to the low-$80s. At $6.62/gal, California diesel is running $1.36 above the national average — the widest state gap in the country — and that lands right as almond harvest equipment and irrigation pumps are both running hard.
| ▲ BACK UP AGAIN |
| Diesel (Clear #2) |
| $6.62 |
| per gallon · CA avg wk Aug 10 |
| ↑ Up ~55¢ since early July. Highest in the nation and $1.36 above the $5.26 U.S. average (USDA/EIA). |
| Red Diesel (Ag Dyed) |
| Est. $5.70–$5.85 |
| per gallon · estimated Central Valley |
| ↑ Rose with clear diesel. Off-road dyed runs roughly $0.90/gal under clear (no road taxes). This is an estimate — confirm with your supplier, since volume and region both move it. |
| Gasoline (Regular) |
| $5.43 |
| per gallon · CA avg (EIA Aug 10) |
| → Highest in the U.S. Down 7¢ on the week but still well above the $4.01 national average. Los Angeles at $5.42. CARB blend rules and state taxes keep the gap wide. |
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⚠ What’s Driving CA Prices
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Two forces are working against you at the pump this month:
• Crude turned back up. September WTI is near $81/barrel, up roughly $10 from July. Every $10/barrel is worth about 24¢/gal at the pump.
• Refinery closures removed roughly 18–21 percent of in-state refining capacity — a lasting squeeze that amplifies every crude move here.
• CARB programs: Cap-and-Invest plus the LCFS update effective July 1, 2026 are now fully in the price.
• Taxes: California’s roughly $0.90/gal remains the highest in the nation.
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📊 30-Day Fuel Price Outlook
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Crude has given back some ground in the last few sessions, but the July lows are gone. Expect Central Valley clear diesel to hold in the $6.40–$6.80/gal range through harvest, with red diesel roughly 90¢ under that.
What would change it: a sustained pullback in crude would filter through in two to three weeks. A Black Sea or Middle East supply event would push the other way, and California's thin refining margin means moves land here harder than anywhere else.
Action: If you passed on locking bulk diesel in July, the cheap window has closed for now. Price harvest and hauling on $6.60–$6.80 rather than the July number, and revisit contracts if crude breaks back under $75.
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Crude Oil Context. September WTI settled at $81.25/barrel on August 13, down $2.02 on the day but roughly $10 above where it traded in early July. That round trip is the whole fuel story this month: the relief we flagged in July reversed, and California pump prices followed within weeks. Every $10/barrel move is worth about 24¢/gal at the pump, so crude remains the single biggest swing factor in your fuel budget.
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Section 4
Weather Outlook & Agricultural Relevance
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A break has opened. After a brutal late July that pushed Fresno to 108°F, the NWS Hanford forecast has highs holding in the low-to-mid 90s through the coming week — several degrees below the August normal near 99°F. That is a real gift, and it is landing on a week when both almond and pistachio harvest are running. Take advantage of it, because seasonal guidance still points to heat returning in the back half of the month.
| High Temp |
| 90–96°F |
| Fresno · next 7 days (NWS) |
| Below normal. August average high runs near 99°F. Late July hit 108°F — this is a genuine break. |
| Low Temp |
| 60–66°F |
| overnight lows |
| Cooler nights give trees real overnight recovery and take some pressure off navel orangeworm flights. Good drying conditions for windrows. |
| Heat Risk |
| MODERATE |
| for now — heat likely returns |
| Use the window. Seasonal guidance points to a hot late August. Get heat-sensitive work done now. Fire-weather risk stays elevated on cured fuels. |
| Precipitation |
| 0.00 in |
| August outlook |
| No measurable rain expected — which is what you want for harvest. All crop water comes from irrigation. Dry ground is also hard-to-wet ground (see Section 6). |
| Crop / Sector |
August Weather Relevance & Action Items |
| 🍐 Almonds / Pistachios |
Almond harvest is on, roughly one to three weeks early after the warm spring. Shake into the cool window, and use the below-normal highs and dry air for clean windrow drying. Time your pre-harvest irrigation cutoff carefully — too wet and you fight mud and shaker damage, too dry and you stress trees into next season. Pistachio harvest started this week — also ahead of the normal late-August to September window, on a light crop: an off year in the alternate-bearing cycle, made worse by the unusually warm March that disrupted bloom. Two harvests running at once means equipment, crews, and hauling are all competing. Keep post-harvest irrigation planned now so trees are not left dry once shaking moves on — on a light year that recovery window matters even more for setting 2027. |
| 🍇 Grapes |
Harvest is underway for early varieties and raisin lay-down is approaching. Cooler days slow sugar accumulation slightly but protect against raisining and sunburn — check Brix more often than the calendar suggests. Dry weather is ideal for raisin drying on trays. Keep the mildew program tight right through the last pick. |
| 🪓 Walnuts |
Kernel fill and hull development heading toward a September harvest. Stay on husk fly and watch the third codling moth flight on degree-day accumulation. Do not back off irrigation yet — water stress now costs kernel weight and drives shrivel. The cooler stretch reduces sunburn risk on exposed nuts. |
| 🌾 Wheat / Small Grains |
Ground is open and this is the prime amendment window before fall planting. Get soil and water samples pulled now so there is time to act on the results before planting. Correcting salinity, sodium, and infiltration is far cheaper on bare ground than mid-season — and if the winter comes in wet, that moisture will incorporate your amendments for free. |
| 🌿 Cotton / Field Crops |
Boll fill and cutout in Kern and Kings county fields. The cooler stretch reduces shed risk, but keep water ahead of demand through fill — late stress costs micronaire and turnout. With December cotton up near 83¢, this crop is worth finishing properly. Keep scouting lygus and mites until cutout is confirmed. |
| 🍊 Citrus |
Fruit is sizing and the cooler window eases sunburn and splitting pressure. Keep irrigation frequent and even — swings between wet and dry are what crack fruit. Continue Asian Citrus Psyllid monitoring and report any suspicious yellowing or die-back to CDFA immediately. |
30-Day Outlook (Aug 15 – Sep 15): Expect the current cool stretch to give way to renewed heat in the back half of August — long-range guidance has consistently pointed to a hot mid-to-late August — then a gradual seasonal cooling into September. Rainfall stays at essentially zero. ET demand eases slightly off its July peak but remains high, so keep matching applications to CIMIS demand rather than to the calendar.
Looking further out — and this one has a deadline attached: the Climate Prediction Center has El Niño strengthening through the rest of 2026, with above-normal precipitation favored across much of the southern U.S. this fall and winter. That is a meaningful change from the last two winters. It is early, and El Niño signals are less reliable for Central California than for the south state — but if it verifies, the stretch between harvest and unworkable ground gets short. That makes the fall soil sampling calendar a scheduling problem, not a paperwork problem. See Section 6.
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Section 5
Water Situation & District Updates
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Good news, three days old. On August 11 Reclamation raised south-of-Delta CVP allocations again — irrigation contractors from 25% to 28%, and south-of-Delta M&I from 75% to 78%. It is the third increase this year and reflects better-than-expected supply conditions plus added operational flexibility. It is still a short year, but the direction has been consistently upward since the 15% initial allocation in February.
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✅ Allocation Raised Again — Aug 11
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South-of-Delta irrigation contractors moved from 25% to 28% of contract total, and south-of-Delta M&I from 75% to 78% of historic use or public health and safety needs, whichever is greater. All other amounts announced May 19 are unchanged.
Track the year: 15% initial in February, 20% in March, 25% in May, and now 28%. Reclamation cited improved supply conditions and added operational flexibility. If you budgeted on 25%, there is a little more water available than you planned for — confirm the delivery timing with your district before you commit it.
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💧 Storage & the Drawdown Question
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The snowpack has been gone since early summer, so everything from here runs on stored water. Storage held up well enough through spring capture to support two allocation increases, and Folsom was still running above its long-term average for the date in early August.
The question for the rest of the season is drawdown pace. Reclamation is also managing reservoir releases against downstream temperature requirements, which constrains how freely water moves. Expect groundwater pumping to stay heavy through harvest — a direct energy cost at $6.62 diesel, and an ongoing SGMA-compliance concern.
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| CVP Contractor / District |
2026 Allocation |
Notes |
| Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (N of Delta) |
100% ✓ |
Non-critical year. Settlement contract senior rights. Full supply secured. |
| M&I Contractors (N of Delta, Folsom) |
100% ✓ |
American River / Folsom Reservoir water service. Full allocation. |
| Friant Division (Millerton / Friant-Kern Canal) |
100% Class 1 ✓ |
First 800,000 AF fully allocated. Class 2 at 0%. Friant-Kern Canal water delivery running. |
| Irrigation Contractors (S of Delta) — incl. Westlands |
28% ▲ |
Raised Aug 11 from 25%. Third increase of the year, up from 15% initial. Still well short of contract, so groundwater remains a major source for most operations. |
| M&I Contractors (S of Delta) |
78% ▲ |
Raised Aug 11 from 75%. Of historic use or public health and safety needs, whichever is greater. |
| Cross Valley Contractors (irrigation) |
15% ⚠ |
Critical shortage. Groundwater will be primary supply source for many operations. |
| Eastside Contractors (Central SJ Water, Stockton East) |
49,000 AF |
Increased from 0 to 49,000 AF this spring as storage improved. Still supplemented heavily with groundwater. |
| State Water Project (SWP) — South |
50%* |
Raised well above the 10% initial allocation as storage improved through spring. *Confirm your district’s final Table A allocation with DWR. |
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📅 Water Release Dates & Run Times
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Friant-Kern Canal: Class 1 deliveries continue for late-summer demand. Contact Friant Water Authority for your district’s current run times and portal windows as harvest deliveries wind down.
Madera Canal: Running with Friant Class 1 deliveries. Check Madera Irrigation District for August–September turn schedules and any end-of-season cutoff dates.
Delta-Mendota Canal (DMC): Deliveries now reflect the 28% south-of-Delta allocation announced August 11. If you were scheduled on the 25% figure, call your district — the incremental water has to be scheduled to be useful.
Kings River / Tulare Lake Basin: Contact Consolidated Irrigation District, Kings River Conservation District, or your local district for late-season delivery windows and turn schedules.
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⚡ Key Water Management Priorities
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With harvest underway and the season's water nearly committed, the priorities shift from rationing to placement — getting what you have where it does the most good:
• Schedule the new 28%. The incremental allocation only helps if it is on the delivery calendar. Call your district this week.
• Infiltration, not just volume. Hot, dry ground repels water. If you are seeing pooling, runoff, or dry pockets under emitters, you are losing water you already paid for (see Section 6).
• Distribution uniformity: Check emitter function and pressure now — a clogged block wastes allocation and stresses trees at the same time.
• SGMA compliance: Heavy pumping still has to be tracked and reported per Sustainable Groundwater Management Act requirements.
• Post-harvest planning: Trees need water after shaking. Do not let the allocation run dry before post-harvest irrigation, which sets next year's crop.
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Water Advisory: The August 11 increase to 28% south-of-Delta is real improvement, but 2026 remains a supply-constrained year running on stored water with no snowmelt behind it. Reclamation may adjust again before the water year closes September 30. Allocation percentages and delivery schedules both change — confirm your district's current status and run times directly with them rather than relying on any published figure, including this one.
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Section 6
Product Spotlight
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At a 28% allocation, water you lose to runoff, ponding, and dry spots is water you already paid for. But before you buy anything to fix it, you need to know which problem you actually have — so this month we are leading with soil and water analysis, and pairing it with Aqua-Drive Elite, Diamond K’s new-for-2026 wetting agent for hydrophobic ground, hardpan-restricted profiles, and the chronic dry spots that come with both.
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Book Now · Limited Fall Window
🧭 Schedule Your Soil & Water Testing — Before the Rain Decides For You
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Here is the problem with this fall. The Climate Prediction Center has El Niño strengthening through the rest of 2026, with above-normal precipitation favored across much of the southern U.S. If that verifies here, the stretch between harvest and wet ground gets short — and once the ground is wet, nobody is pulling samples or spreading amendments. Equipment does not go in, ruts do not heal, and the job waits until spring.
The fix is sequencing, not luck. A soil test is not a same-day answer — samples have to be pulled, sent, run, and interpreted before a single pound of amendment gets ordered. That chain takes weeks. If you wait until harvest is over to start thinking about it, you have already spent the window.
| Now — August |
Get on the sampling calendar. Booking early is what guarantees we are in your blocks the week harvest clears, not three weeks later. |
| Right after harvest |
Samples pulled on dry, accessible ground — the best conditions of the year for clean, representative cores. |
| Water sample too |
Pull from every well and turnout you actually irrigate with. Water chemistry changes through the season and drives half of what the soil report will say. |
| Lab turnaround |
Results and interpretation come back while the ground is still workable — not after the first storm. |
| Before the rain |
Gypsum, sulfur, and nutrient corrections go down at the right rate — then winter moisture works them in for you. |
The upside if it does rain: a wet winter is the best incorporation tool there is. Amendments applied before the storms get carried into the profile at no cost to you. The growers who benefit from an El Niño winter are the ones who got their material down first — and that comes back to whether the sample was pulled in time.
Get on the fall sampling schedule. Tell us your crops and roughly when you expect to clear, and we will build the calendar backward from there.
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Email opens a message to bryan@bmelloag.com with the subject already filled in — just add your ranch and expected harvest dates.
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🌰 2026 Nut Harvest Watch
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A smaller crop, an early harvest, and firmer prices. USDA’s forecast puts the 2026 California almond crop at 2.7 billion lbs, down 1% from last year, with yield holding at 1,940 lbs per acre. Note that this is the only official NASS estimate this year — the mid-season Objective Measurement was discontinued, so there will be no recalibration before harvest wraps. Bearing acreage also fell to roughly 1.386 million acres, the first recorded decrease since 1995.
Warm spring weather pushed development ahead, and harvest is running one to three weeks early across many areas. Prices firmed through July on strong export demand — June shipments up 14% year over year, current-crop sales up 48%, with India buying hard ahead of Diwali. Pistachio harvest started this week — early again, against a normal late-August to September start. The crop is light, and it is light for two reasons stacked on top of each other: 2026 is a natural off year in the alternate-bearing cycle, and an unusually warm March compounded it, disrupting bloom timing and the male-to-female overlap that pollination depends on. An off year alone trims a crop. An off year plus a warm spring is what takes it down to grower estimates near 600–800 million lbs. With both nut crops shaking at once, the squeeze is on hauling, huller capacity, and crews.
What that means for you: a smaller crop into a firmer market rewards finishing well. Protect kernel quality through harvest, and do not shortchange post-harvest irrigation and soil correction — that window is what sets the 2027 crop.
And it moves your calendar up. Both crops running early means the post-harvest window opens earlier than usual — but it does not push the rain back. If anything, an early harvest into a potentially wet fall is the best argument there is for getting the sampling booked now rather than after the last load leaves.
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B Mello Ag Services · Core Service
Soil & Water Analysis
Test First. Then Treat.
Full soil panel plus irrigation water quality — interpreted for your crop
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★ Start Here
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Soil Panel
ECe · pH · ESP
Plus Ca, Mg, Na & nutrients
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Water Panel
EC · SAR · HCO₃
Bicarbonates, chloride, boron
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Best Window
Post-Harvest
Dry, accessible ground
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What Comes Back
A Rate
Not a guess
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Poor water penetration has at least four different causes, and they call for four different fixes. Sodium, bicarbonates, hydrophobic organic coatings, and a physical compaction layer all look the same from the pickup — standing water and dry spots. Only a test tells you which one you actually have.
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| ✓ Soil and water together — your water chemistry drives what your soil does |
| ✓ Sampled by block, not by ranch — these problems are rarely uniform |
| ✓ Interpreted, not just reported — we walk the numbers with you and set the rate |
| ✓ Tells you what not to buy — often the most valuable line on the report |
| ✓ Baseline for SGMA reporting — and for proving an amendment actually worked |
| ✓ Book for the week your harvest clears — (559) 816-3889 |
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ALL CROPS
ORCHARDS
VINEYARDS
ROW CROPS
DAIRY FORAGE
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Diamond K Gypsum · Nonionic Surfactant
Aqua-Drive Elite™
Soil Moisture Management
Alkylpolyglucoside, poloxalene & polydimethylsiloxane — 52% total actives
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Total Actives
52.0%
31% / 19% / 2% blend
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Initial Rate
1–6 qt/ac
Any irrigation system
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Follow-Up Rate
1–6 pt/ac
Pints — every 45–65 days
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With Bio Algae
1:1 or 2:1
Co-pack option
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A nonionic surfactant built for soil moisture management in irrigated crops. Aqua-Drive Elite lowers the surface tension of your irrigation water and increases both penetration and percolation through the soil profile — so a short set moves down into the root zone instead of standing on top or running off the end of the row.
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| ✓ Lowers surface tension — increases water penetration and percolation through the profile |
| ✓ Runs through what you have — microsprinklers, drip, large-nozzle sprinklers or pivots |
| ✓ Pairs with Diamond K Bio Algae — go 2:1 Elite to Bio Algae on hydrophobic ground |
| ✓ Tank sprayer option — 2% v/v in fertilizer solution at 1–8 pints/acre, then irrigate in |
| ✓ On dryland ground, apply ahead of expected rain — worth noting with a wet winter possible |
| ✓ Always inject through a back-flow check valve. 2.5 gal jugs, twin-packs, Bio Algae co-pack |
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ALMONDS
PISTACHIOS
WALNUTS
GRAPES
CITRUS
COTTON
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| What You’re Seeing |
What the Test Points To |
The Right Fix |
| Dry pockets under working emitters |
Hydrophobic soil — organic coatings repelling water off the particle surface |
✓ Aqua-Drive Elite. This is exactly what it was formulated for. |
| Water sheets off, poor lateral spread |
High bicarbonates or SAR in your irrigation water |
✓ Elite helps the water move in — but pair it with a calcium correction, which is the actual fix. |
| Crusting, dispersed, slow-draining ground |
Elevated exchangeable sodium (ESP) — a sodic soil, not a wetting problem |
Soluble calcium at the rate your ESP calls for, then leach it. A surfactant alone will not fix this. |
| Water perches at one consistent depth |
A physical hardpan, plow pan, or stratified layer — confirm it with a shovel or probe |
Straight answer: a true compaction layer needs tillage or ripping. Elite improves how water moves through a restricted profile and cuts the dry spots above it, but no surfactant breaks a pan. |
| Leaf burn or stalled growth on adequate water |
Salinity (ECe) above your crop’s threshold, or chloride and boron accumulation |
Calculate a leaching requirement — but leaching only works if water penetrates, which is where Elite earns its keep. |
| The point |
✓ Four of these look identical from the pickup. Standing water and dry spots are symptoms, not diagnoses. The test is what separates a surfactant problem from a gypsum problem from a ripping bill — and it is the cheapest line item in the whole program. |
August 2026 Water Strategy: Walk your blocks during the next irrigation and look for the tells — ponding at the row ends, runoff on a short set, and dry pockets directly under emitters that are clearly working. Those symptoms mean water is not getting into the profile, and on a 28% allocation that is the most expensive problem on the ranch. Aqua-Drive Elite goes in at 1 to 6 quarts per acre to start through any irrigation system, then 1 to 6 pints per acre every 45 to 65 days — note the follow-up is measured in pints, not quarts. Running it alongside Diamond K Bio Algae is the label’s preferred program: 1 quart of each to start, or 2 quarts Elite to 1 quart Bio Algae where the ground is genuinely hydrophobic, then 1:1 every 45 to 65 days. Two practical notes — always inject through a back-flow check valve, and the label times the first application to the first irrigation cycle in early spring, so for a mid-season start call us rather than guessing at the rate. Elite carries a WARNING signal word for eye irritation; gloves and eye protection when handling.
Then get the sample pulled the week harvest clears. Elite addresses hydrophobic ground and water movement. If the report comes back showing sodium, salinity, or a compaction layer, those need a different fix entirely — and you would rather know that before you spend.
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Questions? Let’s Talk.
Fall soil sampling is filling up now. With a possible El Niño winter narrowing the post-harvest window, the growers who book early are the ones who get their amendments down before the ground closes. Call and we will schedule around your harvest — and talk through fertilizer programs, water management, or this month’s market data while we are at it.
Soil & Water Analysis
Custom Blends
Organic & Biological Programs
Commodity Insights
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This Month in American History
August 14, 1945 — V-J Day and the End of the Second World War
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Eighty-one years ago yesterday — on August 14, 1945 — President Truman stepped before reporters and announced that Japan had accepted the terms of surrender. The Second World War was over. Word moved across the country in minutes: church bells, factory whistles, car horns, and strangers pouring into the streets of towns that had spent four years reading casualty lists.
More than 16 million Americans had served in uniform. More than 400,000 did not come home. Behind them stood a home front that had rationed, rebuilt, and retooled — including the farmers of this valley, who were told plainly that food was a weapon and who answered by growing more of it, with fewer hands, than anyone thought possible.
The men who came back put down their rifles and picked up shovels. They planted the orchards, dug the wells, and built the packing sheds that a great many Central Valley operations still run on today. When we talk about generational farms here, we are often talking about ground first worked by someone who had just come home from a war.
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“
This is the day we have been waiting for since Pearl Harbor.
— President Harry S. Truman
The White House, August 14, 1945
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To the Men & Women of Our Armed Forces and First Responders
From the fields of the Central Valley to the far corners of the world, your sacrifice, courage, and daily commitment make it possible for all of us to plant, grow, and build. We farm in freedom because you stand in its defense.
You are the reason we are Safe and Free.
B Mello Ag Services — Proudly American — Central Valley, California
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Every month we pull together the numbers that actually move your operation — milk, feed, fuel, water, and the crops in the ground — so you don’t have to chase them across a dozen reports. When the markets turn, you’ll hear it from us first. That’s the promise behind every B Mello Economic Update.
Proudly American · Rooted in the American Dream
Bryan Mello
B Mello Ag Services — Central Valley, California
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B Mello Ag Services · Central Valley, CA
August 2026 Economic Update · Published August 15, 2026
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(559) 816-3889
bryan@bmelloag.com
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This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Commodity prices, fuel prices, water allocations, and weather data are sourced from publicly available government and industry reports as of the publication date and are subject to change. This publication does not constitute financial, legal, or agronomic advice. Always consult with a licensed commodity broker before making marketing decisions and a licensed PCA/CCA before making agronomic decisions. B Mello Ag Services assumes no liability for decisions made based on information in this publication.
Data sources: USDA August 2026 WASDE (released Aug 12), USDA AMS Announcement of Class and Component Prices (Aug 5) and Advanced Prices for August 2026, CME spot dairy closes (week ending Aug 7), CBOT/KCBT/ICE futures settlements (Aug 13, 2026), EIA and USDA AgTransport fuel prices (week ending Aug 10), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation allocation update (Aug 11), California DWR, NWS Hanford, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, USDA NASS California Almond Forecast, and Diamond K Gypsum product literature.
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